Opening Spread: Raiders +9.5
Opening Game Total: 51.5
Opening Team Totals: Raiders (21) Chiefs (30.5)
The Line Report
- This line opened as Raiders +9.5
- This line remains at Raiders +9.5
- This total opened at 51.5 points
- This total has moved to 52.5 points
Raiders: Questionable — QB Jarrett Stidham, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Davante Adams, LB Darien Butler
Chiefs: Questionable — LG Joe Thuney, CB L’Jarius Sneed
Raiders Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
After last week’s contest against the 49ers, I’m moving the Raiders’ offensive line up to slightly below-average territory. I have the Chiefs’ defensive front tiered as a fringe top-ten group. The Chiefs’ defense has a mild advantage in the trenches, while premium defensive tackle Chris Jones has significant individual advantage in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Raiders are 8-8 against the spread this season
- The Raiders are 8-7-1 on overs this season
- Jarrett Stidham is 1-0 against the spread in his career
- Jarrett Stidham is 1-0 on overs in his career
- Josh McDaniels is 21-23 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Josh McDaniels is 22-21-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Raiders are scoring 23.9 points per game, good for 12th in the league
- Las Vegas is 11th in the league in yards passing per game and 16th in yards rushing
- The Raiders are passing on 62% of their plays and running on 38% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- In his first start as a Raider, Jarrett Stidham threw for 365 yards passing and three touchdowns against the 49ers last week. Stidham added 34 yards rushing on seven carries in that outing
- Per the Edge, Josh Jacobs leads the league in rushing with 1,608 yards and is fourth in rushing touchdowns with 12. Jacobs is seventh among running backs in yards receiving
- Davante Adams is ninth in the league in receptions (95), third in yards receiving (1,443), the leader in receiving touchdowns (14), the leader in target share (32.7%), and fourth in air yards share (41.7%)
- In his three games since returning from injury, Hunter Renfrow has been held below 20 yards receiving twice
- In his three games since returning from injury, Darren Waller has at least 48 yards receiving in all of them
- Per TruMedia, Darren Waller has played 78 snaps as an in-line tight end, 45 on the perimeter, and 155 in the slot
- The Chiefs have allowed 22.3 points per game, which is 20th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Chiefs have allowed the 24th-most yards rushing per game and the second-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Kansas City has given up the 20th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Chiefs have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Chiefs have allowed the most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot
Chiefs Offense vs. Raiders Defense
I have the Chiefs’ offensive line tiered as a top-ten group. I have the Raiders’ defensive front tiered as a below-average group. The Chiefs have a moderate advantage in the trenches from a macro sense, while Raiders premium edge Maxx Crosby has an individual advantage on the outside.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chiefs are 6-10 against the spread this season
- The Chiefs are 8-8 on overs this season
- Patrick Mahomes is 40-37-2 against the spread in his career
- Patrick Mahomes is 42-36-1 on overs in his career
- Andy Reid is 196-166-7 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Andy Reid is 181-177-11 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Chiefs are scoring 29.1 points per game, which is first in the league
- Kansas City is first in the league in yards passing per game and 21st in yards rushing
- The Chiefs are passing on 67% of their plays and running on 33% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, last week was the first time Isiah Pacheco fell below ten carries and 58 yards rushing in a game since November 13th
- Jerick McKinnon has six or more targets in six of his last nine games. McKinnon has eight total touchdowns over that span
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has a 17.6% target share and a 17.6% air yards share
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a 12.7% target share and a 24.4% air yards share
- Kadarius Toney had 71 yards receiving last week against the Broncos. Toney has breached 50 yards receiving in two of his six games since joining the Chiefs
- Travis Kelce is third in the league in receptions (104), eighth in yards receiving (1,300), and second in receiving touchdowns (12).
- Travis Kelce is third among tight ends in target share (24.7%) and air yards share (24.7%)
- Per TruMedia, Kelce has played 307 snaps as an in-line tight end, 211 on the perimeter, and 299 in the slot
- The Raiders have allowed 24.2 points per game, which is 25th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 13th-most yards rushing per game and the most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Las Vegas has given up the 12th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Raiders have allowed the 16th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Raiders have allowed the tenth-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends
What You’re Betting On
The Chiefs are still in play for the top seed in the AFC, so we can expect them to be highly motivated in this contest. The Raiders are out of playoff contention, which puts them in position to play the role of spoiler against their division rival. That said, both Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams are on the injury report as of Wednesday. Since the Raiders are playing for little more than pride, good chance they err on the side of caution with any of their injured players.
The Chiefs beat the Raiders 30-29 back in Week 5 in Kansas City. Derek Carr was the Raiders’ quarterback in that contest, which marks a significant difference between that game and this one.
If You’re Betting on Raiders …
No one expected Jarrett Stidham to carve up the 49ers last week, but we can’t ignore that he did. The Chiefs scored 30 points on the Raiders during their meeting earlier this season, which is right in line with their team total of 30.5 points. It’s hard to have any confidence in the Raiders’ defense holding Kansas City under those figures, especially after Vegas gave up 37 points to Brock Purdy’s offense last week. If you’re going to bet on the Raiders, you have to build that bet on Jarrett Stidham’s offense either keeping this game reasonably close or back door covering.
If Derek Carr was the Raiders’ quarterback, I’d be reasonably comfortable with that stance, as he’s had a number of strong performances against Mahomes’ Chiefs. Stidham showed last week that this offense has an unexpectedly high ceiling with him at the controls, but the floor is lower with Stidham than it was with Carr. If Davante Adams sits this game out, that’s going to make a Raiders cover significantly more challenging.
If You’re Betting on Chiefs …
Any Chiefs bet is always built around Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s offense. Not only can Kansas City finish the season as the top seed in the AFC, but Patrick Mahomes is 429 yards away from beating the single-season yardage mark. While reaching that feat is unlikely, a Chiefs’ offensive explosion is hardly out of the question in this contest. In fact, it would be a bit of a surprise if the Chiefs’ offense didn’t meet expectations in this matchup. Your primary concern as a Chiefs bettor is their defense’s ability to limit Jarrett Stidham’s offense. Kansas City has given up 24 or more points in four of their last five games. More importantly, two of those came against Denver and another against the Texans. If the Raiders’ talented skill group is at or at least near full strength and Stidham’s play largely mimics last week’s, the Raiders can realistically beat their team total.
Awards Market Ramifications: Patrick Mahomes is the MVP favorite.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I will take the Chiefs across the board in winner pools, and I expect to be right in line with consensus in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will take the Chiefs or pass here.
Survivor Pool: If your survivor pool runs into Week 18 and you still have the Chiefs available, they are motivated and thus a strong option in that format.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 55-37