Opening Spread: Packers -3
Opening Game Total: 47
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Packers -3
- This line has moved to Packers -3.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Packers -3.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Packers -3.5
- This total opened at 47-points
- This total has moved to 47.5-points
Packers: Questionable – WR Christian Watson, DB/KR Keisean Nixon.
Vikings: Out – C Garrett Bradbury.
Packers Offense vs. Vikings Defense
The Packers have a fringe top-ten offensive line when they are at full strength, as it appears they will be this week. I have the Vikings defensive front tiered in the same range. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Packers are 7-8 against the spread this season
- The Packers are 7-8 on overs this season
- Aaron Rodgers is 129-95-4 against the spread in his career
- Aaron Rodgers is 117-109-2 on overs in his career
- Matt LaFleur is 39-25 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Matt LaFleur is 30-34 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Packers are scoring 20.9 points per game, which is 18th in the league
- Green Bay is 18th in the league in yards passing per game and 14th in yards rushing
- The Packers are passing on 60% of their plays and running on 40% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Aaron Jones is 11th in the league in yards rushing with 962, and he’s ninth among running backs in yards receiving
- A.J. Dillon has double-digit carries and at least three targets in each of his last three games
- Christian Watson has at least six targets and 46 yards receiving in each of his last six games
- Allen Lazard’s usage has been pretty volatile week-to-week, but he’s breached 50 yards receiving in seven of his last 11 games
- Since returning from injury, Romeo Doubs has five or more targets in each of his last two games
- Robert Tonyan has been held to 20 or fewer yards receiving in six straight games
- The Vikings have allowed 24.9 points per game, which is 28th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Vikings have allowed the 23rd-most yards rushing per game and the sixth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Minnesota has given up the most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- Minnesota has given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the most to slot receivers
- The Vikings have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
Vikings Offense vs. Packers Defense
Without center Garrett Bradbury, I have moved the Vikings’ offensive line into the league-average range. I have Green Bay’s injury-reduced defensive front in the slightly below-average territory. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Vikings are 6-8-1 against the spread this season
- The Vikings are 10-5 on overs this season
- Kirk Cousins is 69-69-2 against the spread in his career
- Kirk Cousins is 83-56-1 on overs in his career
- Kevin O’Connell is 6-8-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Kevin O’Connell is 10-5 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Vikings are scoring 25.2 points per game, which is seventh in the league
- Minnesota is fifth in the league in yards passing per game and 28th in yards rushing
- The Vikings are passing on 68% of their plays and running on 32% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Dalvin Cook is sixth in the league in yards rushing with 1,109, and he’s 18th among running backs in yards receiving
- Justin Jefferson leads the league in receptions (123) and yards receiving (1,756); he’s tied for fifth in receiving touchdowns (8), fourth in target share (30.1%), and seventh in air yards share (40.9%)
- Adam Thielen has a 17.8% target share and a 24% air yards share
- K.J. Osborn has a 13.5% target share and a 14.2% air yards share
- T.J. Hockenson has a 22.3% target share and a 19.5% air yards share since joining the Vikings in Week 9
- The Packers have allowed 22.3 points per game, which is 17th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Packers have allowed the sixth-most yards rushing per game and the 24th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Green Bay has given up the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Packers have allowed the second-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Packers are highly motivated, as they need to win out to potentially make the playoffs. The Vikings will be a top-three seed in the NFC; it’s just a question of where they end up out of that group. The Vikings beat the Packers 23-7 on opening day in Minnesota.
If You’re Betting on the Packers
The first part of a Packers bet is that you’re getting Aaron Rodgers against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. For some perspective, Daniel Jones has breached 300 yards passing three times in the last three seasons, and one of those came last week against the Vikings. Rodgers’ passing attack has a considerable ceiling in this contest, especially if Christian Watson ends up being a full go. I’m building any Packers bet around Rodgers shredding the Vikings in a high-pressure spot.
Green Bay still has a strong pass defense, even though Rashan Gary’s injury greatly reduced their pass rush. That will be a strength vs. strength matchup against Minnesota’s very capable passing attack. Your biggest concern as a Packers bettor is that Kirk Cousins continues his high level of play while Green Bay’s below-average run defense gets shredded by Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. You’re also at least a little concerned that Green Bay’s passing attack underwhelms, even against a below-average pass defense like Minnesota’s.
If You’re Betting on the Vikings
Motivation is a bit of a concern for Minnesota. If the Eagles win their game earlier in the day, the second seed is the best Minnesota can do. The Vikings then have to weigh if they value a potential home game in round two more than getting their team healthy for the playoffs. I’d lean towards the Vikings playing this game at least close to full capacity, but there is a level of undesirable variance here for Vikings’ bettors.
The Vikings should be able to run the ball effectively against Green Bay’s below-average run defense, while Kirk Cousins can go toe-to-toe with anyone in a shootout. Even against Green Bay’s high-performing pass defense, the Vikings can meet expectations on offense in this matchup. Your primary concern as a Vikings bettor is that they have been getting absolutely torched through the air, and now they get Aaron Rodgers in a must-win game. Green Bay is also in desperation mode, while the Vikings don’t exactly “need” this game.
Awards Market Ramifications: Justin Jefferson is the Offensive Player of the Year favorite, and he’s making a compelling case as an MVP candidate. Kevin O’Connell is a Coach of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to be slightly Green Bay heavy in winner pools. I expect to be lower than the consensus on this game in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I will take the Vikings with the hook here or pass. I am leaning toward passing.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33
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