Analysis
12/31/22
7 min read
NFL Week 17 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Steelers vs. Ravens
Steelers (7-8) at Ravens (10-5)
Opening Spread: Ravens -3.5
Opening Game Total: 36.5
Opening Team Totals: Steelers (16.5) Ravens (20)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Ravens -3.5
- This line has moved to Ravens -2.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Ravens -2.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Ravens -2.5
- This total opened at 36.5 points
- This total has moved to 35.5 points
Notable Injuries
Ravens: Out - QB Lamar Jackson, CB Marcus Peters. Questionable - Edge Calais Campbell.
Steelers: Questionable - DL Larry Ogunjobi, LB Myles Jack.
Ravens Offense vs. Steelers Defense
I have the Ravens' offensive line tiered as a top-ten group. I have the Steelers' defensive front tiered as a top-ten group just outside the top five. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup where neither side has a notable advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Ravens are 7-8 against the spread this season
- The Ravens are 4-11 on overs this season
- Tyler Huntley is 9-5 against the spread in his career
- Tyler Huntley is 5-9 on overs in his career
- John Harbaugh is 120-110-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- John Harbaugh is 114-124-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Ravens Offense
- The Ravens are scoring 21.4 points per game, which is 15th in the league
- Baltimore is 28th in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing
- The Ravens are passing on 54% of their plays and running on 46% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Tyler Huntley is back at quarterback for the Ravens
- Huntley hasn’t exceeded 150 yards passing in any of his three starts this season, but Baltimore is 2-1 in those games
- Per the Edge, J.K. Dobbins has breached 100 yards rushing in two of his three games since returning from injury
- Dobbins has at least 12 carries in each of those three games, while Gus Edwards has at least 11 in two of those three contests
- DeMarcus Robinson has six or more targets in three of his last four games, but he had only one against the Falcons last week
- Sammy Watkins made his 2022 Ravens debut last week, where he saw 17-of-52 snaps and 7-of-17 routes
- DeSean Jackson saw 15-of-52 snaps and 8-of-17 routes last week
- Mark Andrews has five or more targets in each of Huntley’s three starts. But Andrews has failed to breach 50 yards receiving in any of those contests
Steelers Defense
- The Steelers have allowed 21.3 points per game, which is 13th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Steelers have allowed the 18th-most yards rushing per game and the 21st-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Pittsburgh has given up the fifth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- Pittsburgh has given up the sixth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers
- The Steelers have allowed the 16th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
Steelers Offense vs. Ravens Defense
The Steelers have a bottom-tier offensive line. I have Baltimore’s defensive front tiered as a slightly below-average unit. The Ravens' defensive front has a mild advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Steelers are 8-6-1 against the spread this season
- The Steelers are 6-9 on overs this season
- Kenny Pickett is 6-5 against the spread in his career
- Kenny Pickett is 4-7 on overs in his career
- Mike Tomlin is 131-120-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Mike Tomlin is 112-141-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Steelers Offense
- The Steelers are scoring 17.6 points per game, which is 29th in the league
- Pittsburgh is 24th in the league in yards passing per game and 18th in yards rushing
- The Steelers are passing on 61% of their plays and running on 39% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Najee Harris is 17th in the league with 843 yards rushing
- Harris has breached 85 yards rushing in four of his last seven games
- Harris had 33 yards rushing on 12 carries earlier in the year against the Ravens
- Diontae Johnson has 130 targets this season, which is tied for seventh in the league, but he has no touchdowns
- Johnson has seven or more targets in each of his last five games, with at least 60 yards receiving in four of them
- George Pickens has five or fewer targets in each of his last four games
- Pat Freiermuth is seventh among tight ends in target share (19.3%) and sixth in air yards share (18.6%)
Ravens Defense
- The Ravens have allowed 18.1 points per game, which is third in the league
- Per The Edge, the Ravens have allowed the fourth-fewest yards rushing per game and the eighth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Baltimore has given up the fourth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Ravens have allowed the 25th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Ravens clinched a playoff spot but still have a chance to win the AFC North. The Ravens beat the Steelers 16-14 in Pittsburgh back in Week 14. Kenny Pickett was injured early in that contest, leading to Mitchell Trubisky taking over. Trubisky had three interceptions in that matchup. Pittsburgh has a narrow path to making the playoffs, but this team is motivated by continuing Mike Tomlin’s streak of winning seasons.
If You’re Betting on the Ravens
Tyler Huntley was much more productive last season than he has been this season. To add to Baltimore’s passing game woes, you could argue that the Ravens have the worst wide receiver group in the league. That makes Mark Andrews the obvious headliner of this very limited passing attack. If you’re betting on the Ravens, you’re either expecting a surge of sorts from this passing attack, or you’re relying on their voluminous run game against a quality opponent. Neither of those options comes with much enthusiasm.
After a slow start, the Ravens' defense has allowed 14 or fewer points in six of their past seven games. That defensive surge has coincided with the Ravens' secondary getting closer to full strength and the addition of premium linebacker Roquan Smith. If you’re betting on the Ravens, you are building that bet around their defense against a below-average Steelers offense. Your primary concern as a Ravens bettor is that Lamar Jackson supplies the overwhelming majority of the firepower in this offense, and he’s been ruled out.
If You’re Betting on the Steelers
The Steelers are 5-2 since their Week 9 bye. One of those losses came in a defensive struggle against the Ravens, and the other in a shootout against the Bengals. If you’re betting on the Steelers, you’re not building that bet around their offense blowing expectations out of the water, but this group has scored 24 or more points in three of their last six games. The Steelers' defense has held six of their previous seven opponents to 17 or fewer points, spearheading their current surge. The return of T.J. Watt coincides with Pittsburgh’s defensive ascension.
If you’re betting on the Steelers, you are betting on their high-performing defense against a very limited, Lamar Jackson-less Ravens offense. Your primary concern as a Steelers bettor is that Kenny Pickett’s offense struggles against a Ravens defense that is allowing the third-fewest points per game in the league.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will get exposure to both of these teams in winner pools at a near-even ratio. I will rank this contest as close to the bottom of my confidence pool rankings as I realistically can.
Spread Pool: I’ve been betting on the Steelers often during their recent surge. I will take them against the spread or pass.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools if possible.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33
WATCH: Better DFS Play - Pickens or Johnson vs. Ravens Defense?
