Opening Spread: Texans +4
Opening Game Total: 43.5
Opening Team Totals: Texans (19.75) Jaguars (23.75)
The Line Report
- This line opened as Texans +4
- This line has moved to Texans +4.5
- This total opened at 43.5 points
- This total has moved to 44.5 points
Texans: Questionable: LG Kenyon Green, RT Tytus Howard.
Jaguars: Questionable: QB Trevor Lawrence, RG Brandon Scherff, DL Folorunso Fatukasi, Edge Travon Walker.
Texans Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
This is an interesting trench matchup. I view both of these units as slightly below-average groups that have enough difference-making talent to have a fringe top-10 type of showing. Inconsistency is the issue with both the Texans’ offensive line and the Jaguars’ defensive front. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Texans are 7-7-1 against the spread this season
- Houston is 6-9 on overs this season
- Davis Mills is 13-12-1 against the spread in his career
- Mills is 13-13 on overs in his career
- Lovie Smith is 89-93-9 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- Smith is 88-100-3 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
- Houston is scoring 16.9 points per game, which is 30th in the league
- The Texans are 26th in the league in yards passing per game and 30th in yards rushing
- Houston passes on 64% of plays and runs on 36% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Royce Freeman has been the Texans’ primary ball carrier during the last two weeks
- After missing a month, Brandin Cooks returned to action last week and saw nine targets
- Cooks exceeded 100 yards receiving in both matchups against the Jaguars last year, but he only had 20 in their matchup earlier this season
- After seeing 19 total targets against the Cowboys and Chiefs, Chris Moore only had four targets against the Titans last week
- Jordan Akins has five or more targets in three of his last five games
- Per TruMedia, Cooks has played 381 snaps on the perimeter and 135 in the slot
- Moore has played 161 snaps on the perimeter and 362 in the slot
- Akins has played 164 snaps as an inline tight end, 40 on the perimeter and 111 in the slot
- Jacksonville has allowed 22.1 points per game, which is 15th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the 24th-most yards rushing and the second-most yards receiving per game to running backs
- Jacksonville has given up the 20th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Jaguars have given up the third-most PPR points per game to slot receivers
- Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends
- The Jaguars have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot
Jaguars Offense vs. Texans Defense
With left tackle Cam Robinson sidelined, I’ve moved the Jaguars’ offensive line from a top-10 level unit to the front of league average. Houston has a bottom-tier defensive front. The Jaguars’ offensive line has a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jaguars are 7-8 against the spread this season
- Jacksonville is 8-7 on overs this season
- Trevor Lawrence is 12-20 against the spread in his career
- Lawrence is 13-19 on overs in his career
- Doug Pederson is 44-50 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- Pederson is 47-48 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
- Jacksonville is scoring 23.5 points per game, which is 11th in the league
- The Jaguars are 11th in the league in yards passing per game and 11th in yards rushing
- Jacksonville passes on 62% of plays and runs on 38% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Lawrence has thrown for 300 or more yards with at least three touchdowns in three of his past five games
- Travis Etienne is eighth in the league in yards rushing with 1,000
- Christian Kirk has 76 receptions for 988 yards receiving and seven touchdowns with a 23.6% target share and a 29.3% air yards share
- Zay Jones has 75 receptions for 778 yards receiving and five touchdowns with a 22.4% target share and a 26.4% air yards share
- Marvin Jones has 38 receptions for 439 yards receiving and three touchdowns, with a 13.6% target share and a 25.6% air yards share
- Evan Engram has 68 receptions for 723 yards receiving and four touchdowns, with a 17.7% target share and a 15.3% air yards share
- Per TruMedia, Engram has played 343 snaps as an inline tight end, 146 on the perimeter and 243 in the slot
- Houston has allowed 23.9 points per game, which is 26th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Texans have allowed the most yards rushing and the 19th-most yards receiving per game to running backs
- Houston has given up the 25th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers
- The Texans have allowed the 12th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends
- Houston has allowed the ninth-most PPR points to tight ends lined up in the slot
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Jaguars lost to the Texans 13-6 back in Week 5. Pederson said he doesn’t plan to rest his starters in this contest. However, that’s still an important situation to monitor as the week progresses.
If You’re Betting on the Texans
Houston is on a strong three-week run. First, they nearly knocked off the Cowboys at Dallas, then took the Chiefs to overtime and finally beat the Titans last week. The Texans’ offense drove those quality games against the Cowboys and Chiefs. If you’re betting on Houston, you’re betting on the Texans to at least meet expectations in this matchup.
The Texans’ defense essentially beat the Jaguars when these teams played earlier this season. However, Lawrence is a much different player this time. Your primary concern as a Texans bettor is Lawrence and Etienne continue to stay hot on offense while they blow past their team total this week.
If You’re Betting on the Jaguars
Going forward, any bet on the Jaguars starts as a bet on Lawrence. The Jaguars have surpassed 35 points in two of their past three games. If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you don’t want to count on that type of ceiling outcome, but it’s in play against the Texans’ below-average defense.
Etienne is in a plus matchup in this contest as well, so Jacksonville’s offense can potentially shred Houston in both phases. The Jaguars’ defense is a young, fast group with a lot of potential. Jacksonville has played like a top-10 defense a number of times this season, but they should be viewed as a talented, inconsistent group at this point. If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you don’t want to build that bet around their defense, but they have spike week potential against Houston’s volatile offense.
Your primary concern with a Jaguars bet is this game has little bearing on their playoff status. Jacksonville will play the Titans in the regular-season finale to decide the AFC South no matter what. Looking past the suddenly feisty Texans is your biggest concern as a Jaguars’ bettor.
Awards Market Ramifications: Pederson is a Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Jaguars in most if not all of my winner pools. But I will have my eye on the Jaguars potentially resting any of their key players as the week progresses. I expect to be in line with consensus on this contest in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I won’t make a decision on this game until later in the week given the Jaguars’ lack of motivation in this particular contest.
Survivor Pool: If the Jaguars are a full go later in the week, they are a viable option in survivor pools this late in the season.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33