Analysis
12/31/22
12 min read
NFL Week 17 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions For Every Game
What better way to start off the New Year than with some football and a few bets? Motivation and its impact on various rosters are the name of the game in Week 17. Below you’ll find a summary for each game on the New Year’s Day slate, along with a link to my in-depth betting previews for each contest.
Be sure to check in with our updated injury report.
Bears (3-12) at Lions (7-8)
- Opening Spread: Lions -5.5
- Opening Game Total: 51.5
- Opening Team Totals: Lions (28.5) Bears (23)
- Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
- This line opened as Lions -5.5
- This line has moved to Lions -6.5
- This total opened at 51.5 points
- This total remains at 51.5 points
I’ve had my eye on this game as a potential shootout for a long time. From the Lions' side, I could see any of their prominent skill position players hitting their respective overs in yards. That makes betting on any of them individually a challenge. On the Bears' side, this has been the Justin Fields show for quite some time now, to the point that his individual performance will determine if Chicago covers in this contest. I’m not going to play this game against the spread, but I am going to play at least one ultra-aggressive same-game parlay built around Jared Goff breaching 300 yards passing in the air and Justin Fields carrying his offense.
Cardinals (4-11) at Falcons (5-10)
- Opening Spread: Falcons -3.5
- Opening Game Total: 40
- Opening Team Totals: Falcons (21.25) Cardinals (18.25)
- Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
- This line opened as Falcons -3.5
- This line remains at -3.5
- This total opened at 40-points
- This total has moved to 40.5 points
Colt McCoy was ruled out late in the week, and David Blough will replace him. That shift has completely changed how I initially saw this game, and I will now stay away from it against the spread. I will also stay away from DeAndre Hopkins props, which were among the first I looked for this week, given the quarterback change and his knee issue. I went into the week with interest in rushing overs for both Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson. But those lines came out higher than normal, which means I’m going to pass on those. I took Drake London’s over 56.5 yards receiving prop on our Player Prop Happy Hour show. I’m also interested in betting on Falcons DT Grady Jarrett to get a sack if I can find that at +200 odds or better.
Jaguars (7-8) at Texans (2-12-1)
- Opening Spread: Texans +4
- Opening Game Total: 43.5
- Opening Team Totals: Texans (19.75) Jaguars (23.75)
- Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
- This line opened as Texans +4
- This line has moved to Texans +4.5
- This total opened at 43.5 points
- This total has moved to 44.5 points
Motivation is a concern for Jacksonville in this contest, as they will ultimately play the Titans next week to decide the AFC South. That said, Doug Pederson has indicated that the Jaguars will be a full go in this contest, so that’s how I’ll treat this game. The Texans are giving up the most yards to running backs this season, and Travis Etienne is a dynamic playmaker. That combination is why I took his over 70.5 yards rushing during our Player Prop Happy Hour show. On the other side of this game, I took Brandin Cooks over 47.5 yards receiving. If this game were being played in the middle of the season, I’d love both of those lines. But I just like them with motivation factors in play.
Broncos (4-11) at Chiefs (12-3)
- Opening Spread: Chiefs -13.5
- Opening Game Total: 43.5
- Opening Team Totals: Chiefs (28.5) Broncos (15)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Chiefs -13.5
- This line has moved to Chiefs -12.5
- This total opened at 43.5 points
- This total remains at 43.5 points
I’m treating this contest as if Nathaniel Hackett’s firing is a good thing for Russell Wilson. But I still can’t bet on this Broncos team after last week’s debacle against the Rams. Our Ben Wolby found a great line on Isiah Pacheco to beat 57.5 yards rushing that I tailed. Pacheco has beaten that line in seven straight games, and we can reasonably expect the Chiefs to play most of this contest with a lead.
Dolphins (8-7) at Patriots (7-8)
- Opening Spread: Patriots +1
- Opening Game Total: 43.5
- Opening Team Totals: Patriots (21.25) Dolphins (22.25)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Patriots +1
- This line has moved to Patriots -2.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Patriots -2.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Patriots -3
- This total opened at 43.5
- This total has moved to 42.5
Teddy Bridgewater is an excellent backup quarterback, but Tua Tagovailoa’s absence reduces the ceiling of Miami’s uniquely dangerous offense. I will not bet on this game directly, but in ATS pools where you pick every game, I’d take the Patriots at -2.5 while pivoting to the Dolphins at +3 and especially +3.5.
Colts (4-10-1) at Giants (8-6-1)
- Opening Spread: Giants -3
- Opening Game Total: 40.5
- Opening Team Totals: Giants (21.75) Colts (18.75)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Giants -3
- This line has moved to Giants -5.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Giants -6.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Giants -5.5
- This total opened at 40.5 points
- This total has moved to 38.5 points
If you’re still alive in your survivor pool, there’s a very good chance that you are giving the Giants some serious consideration in that format. The Colts’ pivot to Nick Foles resulted in an absolute disaster against the Chargers last week. I’m expecting a better game out of Foles, as he can't play much worse. But the Giants' defensive front has a trench advantage in this contest. Plus, New York clinches a playoff berth with a win. As long as New York can get their standard turnover-free, a limited offensive performance where they just breach 20 points, there’s a good chance they come out on top here.
There are advantages to avoiding the chalk in survivor pools. However, from a pure football standpoint, the Giants are a perfectly reasonable option in that format. Colts tight end Jelani Woods has a plus matchup in this contest, and he’s beaten his current 28.5 yards receiving line in three of his last four games. Woods had 28 yards receiving on the dot in the game he fell below that mark.
Saints (6-9) at Eagles (13-2)
- Opening Spread: Eagles -6.5
- Opening Game Total: 43.5
- Opening Team Totals: Eagles (25) Saints (18.5)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Eagles -6.5
- This line remains at Eagles -6.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Eagles -6.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Eagles -5.5
- This total opened at 43.5 points
- This total remains at 43.5 points
Gardner Minshew is likely in at quarterback again, coming off a 355-yard performance in Dallas last week. Elite right tackle Lane Johnson is out for the Eagles, which reduces the stability of their premium offensive line. I am concerned that the Eagles' offense has more of a middling outing this week after Minshew’s big game in Dallas. That said, the Eagles' defense is coming off their worst game of the season, which puts them in a bounce-back spot against a limited Saints offense. I’ve bet on Andy Dalton to throw an interception at -105 odds. I will take the Eagles or pass in spread pools, but I am leaning toward passing.
Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (7-8)
- Opening Spread: Buccaneers -3
- Opening Game Total: 40
- Opening Team Totals: Buccaneers (21.5) Panthers (18.5)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Buccaneers -3
- This line has moved to Buccaneers -3.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Buccaneers -2.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Buccaneers -3
- This total opened at 40-points
- This total has moved to 39.5 points
I’ve been saying it for weeks and weeks now, but Steve Wilks has done a remarkable job getting the Panthers into a position where they are still alive in their divisional race. Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea’s injury status is key to this game. If Vea is in, the Buccaneers' ability to mitigate the Panthers' suddenly elite running game goes way up. If Vea is out or limited, the Panthers' success on the ground likely continues against Tampa Bay’s once-elite run defense. Tom Brady’s offense has been shockingly underwhelming this season, but Brady still possesses that otherworldly ability to will his team to victory late in games when his team is down.
Browns (6-9) at Commanders (7-7-1)
- Opening Spread: Commanders -2.5
- Opening Game Total: 40.5
- Opening Team Totals: Commanders (21.5) Browns (19)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Commanders -2.5
- This line remains at Commanders -2.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Commanders -2.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Commanders -2.5
- This total opened at 40.5 points
- This total remains at 40.5 points
Washington has pivoted to Carson Wentz at quarterback. In 2017 that would be a mammoth upgrade, but right now, it’s more of a lateral move. I’m interested in betting against that desperation-scented action, but that comes with the expectation that Deshaun Watson significantly improves in this matchup. I will take the Browns against the spread or pass on this game. I took David Njoku’s 33.5 yards receiving over during our Player Prop Happy Hour show.
Jets (7-8) at Seahawks (7-8)
- Opening Spread: Seahawks Pick’em
- Opening Game Total: 43
- Opening Team Totals: Seahawks (21.5) Jets (21.5)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as a pick’em
- This line has moved to Seahawks +2.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Seahawks +1.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Seahawks +1.5
- This total opened at 43-points
- This total has moved to 42.5 points
Taking the Jets -1.5 was the first bet I made this week. New York is highly motivated, and their premium defense will face Geno Smith’s struggling offense. The return of Mike White creates a few additional paths to the Jets winning this game, as New York isn’t drawing dead in a negative game script with White at the helm. I’m interested in receptions overs for both Zonovan Knight and Michael Carter if they come out at 1.5 for either player.
49ers (11-4) at Raiders (6-9)
- Opening Spread: Raiders +6
- Opening Game Total: 44
- Opening Team Totals: Raiders (19) 49ers (25)
- Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
- This line opened as Raiders +6
- This line has moved to Raiders +8.5
- DraftKings Pick’em has the Raiders +5.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Raiders +9.5
- This total opened at 44-points
- This total has moved to 44.5-points
The Raiders have actively reduced their ability to win a football game by pivoting from Derek Carr to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. In a season with an abnormal amount of baffling quarterback moves, this one takes the cake for me. Shutouts are very rare in NFL games, but that’s now on the table for the Raiders against the league’s best defense. Since the 49ers are locked into the No. 2 or 3 seed, I’m concerned that Christian McCaffrey will see some load management in this contest, especially if the 49ers control this game early. Otherwise, I would have bet his over 31.5 yards receiving line in a plus matchup. I bet the 49ers -5.5, but I would still only take them or pass at their current number.
Vikings (12-3) at Packers (7-8)
- Opening Spread: Packers -3
- Opening Game Total: 47
- Opening Team Totals: Vikings (22) Packers (25)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Packers -3
- This line has moved to Packers -3.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Packers -3.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Packers -3.5
- This total opened at 47-points
- This total has moved to 47.5-points
Aaron Rodgers' over 240-ish yards passing lines against the Vikings were auto-bets earlier in the week. That line has since been pushed past 250 yards. That’s still doable, but I don’t bet or advise taking bad lines. In situations like this, I either get them early or pass. During our Player Prop Happy Hour show, I bet on Dalvin Cook’s over 75.5 yards rushing. That’s a well-set line, but Cook is in a plus matchup in a game that I expect to be close. The Vikings managing the workloads of their best players is my only concern there.
Rams (5-10) at Chargers (9-6)
- Opening Spread: Chargers -7
- Opening Game Total: 41
- Opening Team Totals: Chargers (24) Rams (17)
- Weather: Hybrid stadium, no concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Chargers -7
- This line has moved to Chargers -6.5
- DraftKings Pick’em has the Chargers -6.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chargers -6.5
- This total opened at 41-points
- This total has moved to 40.5-points
Joey Bosa returns for the battle of Los Angeles, where he will be on a pitch count as the Chargers gear up for a playoff run. That is my primary concern in betting on this game, as I would love to bet against the Rams after their stunning offensive explosion last week. It would be logical if the Chargers limited key players like Austin Ekeler or Keenan Allen in this contest. That uncertainty is why I will likely pass on this game from a betting perspective.
Steelers (7-8) at Ravens (10-5)
- Opening Spread: Ravens -3.5
- Opening Game Total: 36.5
- Opening Team Totals: Steelers (16.5) Ravens (20)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Ravens -3.5
- This line has moved to Ravens -2.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Ravens -2.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Ravens -2.5
- This total opened at 36.5 points
- This total has moved to 35.5 points
Sunday Night Football will likely be a low-scoring affair, as both teams have below-average offenses and above-average defenses. The Lamar Jackson-less Ravens could still win the AFC North, while the Steelers could keep Mike Tomlin’s winning seasons streak alive. Both teams are highly motivated. I will take the Steelers against the spread or pass on this contest.
WATCH: Week 17 Player Prop Happy Hour
