Analysis
12/29/22
7 min read
NFL Week 17 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Cardinals vs. Falcons
Cardinals (4-11) at Falcons (5-10)
Opening Spread: Falcons -3.5
Opening Game Total: 40
Opening Team Totals: Falcons (21.25) Cardinals (18.25)
Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
- This line opened as Falcons -3.5
- This line remains at -3.5
- This total opened at 40-points
- This total has moved to 40.5 points
Notable Injuries
Falcons: Questionable: LG Elijah Wilkinson.
Cardinals: Out: CB Byron Murphy, S Budda Baker. Questionable: RB James Conner, C Billy Price, RT Kelvin Beachum, DL Zach Allen, CB Antonio Hamilton, CB Marco Wilson.
Falcons Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
I have the Falcons' offensive line tiered toward the front of league average. I have the Cardinals' defensive front tiered as a league-average group. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Falcons are 8-7 against the spread this season
- Atlanta is 7-8 on overs this season
- Desmond Ridder is 1-1 against the spread in his career
- Ridder is 0-2 on overs in his career
- Arthur Smith is 13-17-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- Smith is 14-17 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
Falcons Offense
- Atlanta is scoring 21 points per game, which is 17th in the league
- The Falcons are 31st in the league in yards passing per game and third in yards rushing
- Atlanta passes on 49% of plays and runs on 51% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- In Ridder’s two starts, the Falcons are averaging 13.5 points per game
- Per the Edge, over Ridder’s two starts Tyler Allgeier has 35 carries and six targets while Cordarrelle Patterson has 22 carries and four targets
- During his last three games, Drake London had at least nine targets and 70 yards receiving in each of those contests
- London is second in the league in target share (35.1%) and air yards share (47.8%) during that three-game span
- Olamide Zaccheaus has four receptions on 10 targets for 18 yards receiving during Ridder’s two starts
- Tight ends Parker Hesse, MyCole Pruitt and Anthony Firkser have each had minimal passing game roles since Kyle Pitts’ injury
Cardinals Defense
- Arizona has allowed 26.1 points per game, which is 30th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Cardinals have allowed the 17th-most yards rushing and the fifth-most yards receiving per game to running backs
- Arizona has given up the 24th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Cardinals have allowed the second-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- Arizona has allowed the third-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the second-most to those lined up in the slot
Cardinals Offense vs. Falcons Defense
Arizona’s injury-ravaged offensive line is a bottom-tier group. I have the Falcons' defensive front tiered as a bottom-tier group. From a macro sense, this trench matchup is a relative draw though Falcons DT Grady Jarrett has an individual matchup advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cardinals are 7-8 against the spread this season
- Arizona is 8-6-1 on overs this season
- Colt McCoy is 23-32-1 against the spread in his career
- McCoy is 28-28 on overs in his career
- Kliff Kingsbury is 33-29-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Kingsbury is 30-32-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Cardinals Offense
- Arizona is 20.5 scoring points per game, which is 21st in the league
- The Cardinals are 16th in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing
- Arizona passes on 67% of plays and runs on 33% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, James Conner has at least 14 carries and three targets in each of his last six games
- DeAndre Hopkins is sixth in the league in target share (29.1%), and he’s fourth in air yards share (41.4%)
- Marquise “Hollywood” Brown has at least six targets in all of his 10 games with at least eight targets in all but two of those contests
- Greg Dortch is coming off a 10-98 line on 11 targets last week against the Bucs
- Dortch has nine or more targets in four games that Rondale Moore has missed
- In the five games since Zach Ertz’s injury, Trey McBride has at least three targets in every contest but has only breached 30 yards receiving once
Falcons Defense
- Atlanta has allowed 23.3 points per game, which is 23rd in the league
- Per The Edge, the Falcons have allowed the eighth-most yards rushing and the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to running backs
- Atlanta has given up the ninth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Falcons gave the Ravens a contested game last week, and the Cardinals took Tom Brady’s Buccaneers to overtime on Christmas night. Motivation is in question for both teams, but they both played high-effort contests against potential playoff teams last week.
If You’re Betting on the Falcons
Ridder was better in his second start against the Ravens than he was in his first against the Saints, but Atlanta is averaging 13.5 points per game with Ridder at the helm. If you’re betting on the Falcons as a 3.5-point home favorite, you’re looking for more out of this limited offense.
McCoy is off the injury report for the Cardinals, making them a more dangerous offense than they were last week with Trace McSorley. The Falcons' pass defense has been improving, but they will have their hands full with one of the best wide receiver duos in the league in Hopkins and Brown. McCoy shouldn’t be framed as more than a good backup quarterback, but he’s the most reliable quarterback in this game. A bet on the Falcons as 3.5-point favorites is more of a bet against the Cardinals than a bet on Ridder’s Falcons.
If You’re Betting on the Cardinals
McCoy is back, which gives the Cardinals more stability on offense. You can build a Cardinals bet around Hopkins, Brown and the rest of Arizona’s skill group being a problem for Atlanta’s below-average defense. J.J. Watt's retirement announcement brings an interesting wrinkle to this game. If you’re betting on Arizona, you’re getting the Cardinals' defense against a rookie quarterback in his third career start, in the wake of one of the greatest defenders of this era announcing their retirement.
Your biggest concerns as a Cardinals bettor are injury related, as Arizona is down multiple offensive linemen along with some of their best secondary players, including headliner Budda Baker. At full strength, the Cardinals would likely be road favorites in this contest.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will be Falcons heavy in winner pools but in a 7-3, if not a 6-4 type of ratio. I expect to be lower than consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will take the Cardinals with the hook or pass here.
Survivor Pool: I would avoid this contest in survivor pools if possible.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33
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