Analysis
12/29/22
7 min read
NFL Week 17 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Broncos vs. Chiefs
Broncos (4-11) at Chiefs (12-3)
Opening Spread: Chiefs -13.5
Opening Game Total: 43.5
Opening Team Totals: Chiefs (28.5) Broncos (15)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Chiefs -13.5
- This line has moved to Chiefs -12.5
- This total opened at 43.5 points
- This total remains at 43.5 points
Notable Injuries
Chiefs: None
Broncos: Questionable: WR Courtland Sutton, WR Jerry Jeudy, WR Kendall Hinton, TE Greg Dulcich, LG Dalton Risner, RG Quinn Meinerz, DL D.J. Jones, Edge Baron Browning, Edge Randy Gregory
Chiefs Offense vs. Broncos Defense
I have the Chiefs tiered as a top-10 offensive line. Now that Randy Gregory is back, the Broncos are a top-10 defensive front. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup that I’m treating as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chiefs are 6-9 against the spread this season
- Kansas City is 7-8 on overs this season
- Patrick Mahomes is 40-36-2 against the spread in his career
- Mahomes is 41-36-1 on overs in his career
- Andy Reid is 196-165-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach
- Reid is 180-177-11 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach
Chiefs Offense
- Kansas City is scoring 29.2 points per game, good for second in the league
- The Chiefs are first in the league in yards passing per game and 17th in yards rushing
- Kansas City passes on 68% of plays and runs on 32% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Jerick McKinnon has six or more targets in three of his past five games, but he’s only hit double-digit carries once over that span
- Isiah Pacheco continues to be the Chiefs' primary ball carrier with 13 or more carries in his past seven games
- During his previous seven games, JuJu Smith-Schuster has double-digit targets in three of those contests, but he’s had four or fewer in the other four games
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been held below 30 yards receiving in each of his last three games.
- Travis Kelce is fourth in the league in receptions (97), seventh in yards receiving (1,257), tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns (12), and he’s third among tight ends in target share (24.7%) and air yards share (25.1%)
- Per TruMedia, Kelce played 301 snaps as an inline tight end, 183 on the perimeter and 283 in the slot
Broncos Defense
- Denver has allowed 20.3 points per game, which is seventh in the league
- Per The Edge, the Broncos have allowed the 12th-most yards rushing and the 11th-most yards receiving per game to running backs
- Denver has given up the fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Broncos have allowed the fourth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- Denver has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the fifth most to those lined up in the slot
Broncos Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
Denver has a below-average offensive line with both of their starting guards on the injury report. I have the Chiefs tiered as a fringe top-10 defensive front, headlined by premium defensive tackle Chris Jones. The Chiefs’ defense has a significant trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Broncos are 6-9 against the spread this season
- Denver is 4-11 on overs this season
- Russell Wilson is 88-77-6 against the spread in his career
- Wilson is 78-92-1 on overs in his career
- Jerry Rosburg is making his debut as an NFL head coach
Broncos Offense
- Denver is scoring 15.5 points per game, which is last in the league
- The Broncos are 19th in the league in yards passing per game and 23rd in yards rushing
- Denver passes on 63% of plays and runs on 37% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, the return of Chase Edmonds could turn the Broncos backfield into a three-back committee with Latavius Murray and Marlon Mack
- Courtland Sutton has seven or more targets with at least 60 yards receiving in four of the previous five games that he’s been active
- Jerry Jeudy has eight or more targets with at least 70 yards receiving in each of his past three games
- Jeudy caught eight passes for 73 yards receiving and three touchdowns against the Chiefs in mid-December
- Greg Dulcich has eight targets in three of his last four games
- Per TruMedia, Sutton has played 634 snaps on the perimeter and 81 in the slot
- Jeudy has played 283 snaps on the perimeter and 277 in the slot
- Dulcich has played 227 snaps as an inline tight end, 29 on the perimeter and 217 in the slot
Chiefs Defense
- Kansas City has allowed 22.1 points per game, which is 16th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Chiefs have allowed the 25th-most yards rushing and the fourth-most yards receiving per game to running backs
- Kansas City has given up the 16th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Chiefs have given up the ninth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers
- Kansas City has allowed the 18th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Chiefs have allowed the most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot
This Is What You’re Betting On
Coming off a ridiculous 51-14 loss against the Rams, Denver fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett this week. These two teams met in Denver in Week 14, and the Chiefs won 34-28.
If You’re Betting on the Chiefs
Mahomes is in the driver’s seat in the MVP race, and the Chiefs still have a path to the top seed in the conference if the Bills lose in either of their next two games. Kansas City hasn’t been blowing the doors off below-average opponents of late, but they remain a motivated team. If you’re betting on the Chiefs, you are always building that bet around Mahomes and Reid’s offense.
We’ve already seen Kansas City breach 30 points against Denver, and they will likely need to do so again to cover as double-digit home favorites. Denver has been a disaster on offense, but it had its best game of the season a couple of weeks ago against Kansas City. If you’re a Chiefs' bettor, your primary concern is Wilson’s offense has another game where they exceed expectations. Hackett’s firing strikes me as more of a negative for Kansas City than a positive.
If You’re Betting on the Broncos
Last week’s loss to the Rams gave Denver no choice but to fire Hackett. His removal makes a Wilson spike game more likely. You’re going to need that type of outcome as a Broncos bettor because, after last week, we can’t go into this game with any confidence in Denver’s once stout defense.
A solid performance out of the Broncos' defense has to be viewed as more of an outlier performance after last week. Your biggest concern as a Broncos bettor is last week’s debacle against the Rams wasn’t a one-time occurrence.
Awards Market Ramifications: Mahomes is the MVP favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Chiefs across the board in winner pools, and I expect to be in line with consensus on this contest in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I’m going to stay away from this contest against the spread, primarily because we’d need to rely on Denver’s defense showing up against a premium offense after giving up 50 points to one of the league’s worst in the Rams.
Survivor Pool: If you still have the Chiefs, they already beat the Broncos in Denver a few weeks ago and they are a strong option in survivor pools.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33
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