Analysis
12/31/22
7 min read
NFL Week 17 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for 49ers vs. Raiders
49ers (11-4) at Raiders (6-9)
Opening Spread: Raiders +6
Opening Game Total: 44
Opening Team Totals: Raiders (19) 49ers (25)
Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
- This line opened as Raiders +6
- This line has moved to Raiders +8.5
- DraftKings Pick’em has the Raiders +5.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Raiders +9.5
- This total opened at 44-points
- This total has moved to 44.5-points
Notable Injuries
Raiders: Out - QB Derek Carr.
49ers: Out - WR Deebo Samuel.
Raiders Offense vs. 49ers Defense
I have the Raiders tiered as a below-average offensive line. The 49ers have a top-five-level defensive front. The 49ers have a potentially game-derailing advantage in the trenches this week.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Raiders are 7-8 against the spread this season
- The Raiders are 7-7-1 on overs this season
- Josh McDaniels is 20-23 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Josh McDaniels is 21-21-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
Raiders Offense
- The Raiders are scoring 23.2 points per game, good for 12th in the league
- Las Vegas is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing
- The Raiders are passing on 62% of their plays and running on 38% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Jarrett Stidham takes over at quarterback for Derek Carr
- Per the Edge, Josh Jacobs leads the league with 1,539 yards rushing, and he’s fifth in rushing touchdowns
- Jacobs is 11th among running backs in yards receiving
- Davante Adams is ninth in the league in receptions (88), fifth in yards receiving (1,290), tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns (12), the leader in target share (32.6%), and sixth in air yards share (41.2%)
- Hunter Renfrow has 10 total targets over his two games since returning from injury
- Since returning from a two-month absence, Darren Waller has eight total targets and at least 48 yards receiving in his past two games
- Per TruMedia, Davante Adams has played 681 snaps on the perimeter and 185 in the slot
- Hunter Renfrow has played 38 snaps on the perimeter and 247 in the slot
49ers Defense
- The 49ers have allowed 15.3 points per game, which is the best in the league
- Per The Edge, the 49ers have allowed the fewest yards rushing per game and the 18th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- San Francisco has given up the sixth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- San Francisco has given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers
- The 49ers have allowed the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
49ers Offense vs. Raiders Defense
San Francisco has a top-ten-level offensive line. Las Vegas has a below-average defensive front despite having premium edge Maxx Crosby. The 49ers' offensive line has a moderate advantage in the trenches in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The 49ers are 10-5 against the spread this season
- The 49ers are 7-8 on overs this season
- Kyle Shanahan is 49-46-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Kyle Shanahan is 48-46-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
49ers Offense
- The 49ers are scoring 25 points per game, which is eighth in the league
- San Francisco is 12th in the league in yards passing per game and ninth in yards rushing
- The 49ers are passing on 55% of their plays and running on 45% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Brock Purdy is 3-0 as the 49ers’ starter, but he also beat the Dolphins in relief duty
- Per the Edge, Christian McCaffrey is tenth in the league in yards rushing with 973, and he’s second among running backs in yards receiving with 642
- Both Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price have recently served as the secondary runner behind Christian McCaffrey
- Since Brock Purdy relieved an injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13, Brandon Aiyuk has a 21.1% target share and a 33% air yards share
- George Kittle has breached 90 yards receiving in each of his last two games
- Kittle has four touchdown receptions over that span
Raiders Defense
- The Raiders have allowed 23.3 points per game, which is 24th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 15th-most yards rushing per game and the most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Las Vegas has given up the 15th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Raiders have allowed the 14th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Raiders have allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends and those lined up in the slot
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Raiders' decision to ostracize Derek Carr for Jarrett Stidham is the most bizarre quarterback change in a season filled with illogical quarterback changes. The Raiders have been eliminated from the playoffs while management is actively tanking in a best-case scenario. The 49ers are virtually locked into the NFC’s second or third seed.
If You’re Betting on the Raiders
The Raiders are in a terrible position in this contest. Not only are they benching a quarterback that would walk right in and start for at least ten NFL teams, but they are replacing him with a very volatile option in Jarrett Stidham. If you’re betting on the Raiders, you are betting on an organization that is going out of its way to reduce its chances of winning in this contest. On top of that, the 49ers defensive front has a potentially game-derailing trench advantage. The Raiders' offense has a major uphill battle against the league’s best defense. You can’t really build a bet around the Raiders defense that is giving up the 10th-most points per game, either. That ultimately means that a Raiders bet can be built on two core concepts. The first is that the 49ers play down to their competition in this contest. Even if they do, San Francisco has the raw materials to beat the Raiders by distance, even if it doesn't play its best game. The second concept is that a Raiders bet is a direct bet against Brock Purdy.
If You’re Betting on the 49ers
First and foremost, a 49ers bet is built on the league’s best defense, with a potentially game-derailing trench advantage against Jarrett Stidham. The Raiders have a very strong skill group that is finally back to full strength, but Stidham gets the worst possible matchup here in his first start as a Raider. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders are giving up the most yards receiving to running backs, and they draw Christian McCaffrey in this contest. Even if Brock Purdy plays his first rocky game since taking over, which is your only real concern as a 49ers’ bettor, McCaffrey represents a major matchup problem for the Raiders. The 49ers have to win by distance to cover in this contest, and they have the raw materials to do so.
Awards Market Ramifications: Brock Purdy is an ascending Offensive Rookie of the Year contender. Christian McCaffrey is a Comeback Player of the Year contender. Nick Bosa is the Defensive Player of the Year favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be taking the 49ers in all of my winner pools, and I will rank them first in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m taking the 49ers or passing at the current number, and I’ll be taking them in any ATS pool where I can get them at a value.
Survivor Pool: There are no sure things in survivor pools, but the 49ers in this matchup are as close as it gets.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33
WATCH: 49ers vs. Raiders Betting Preview
