NFL Week 16 Player Props: How Will Bad Weather Affect Receiving Props?

In the Week 16 edition of The 33rd Team’s Player Prop Happy Hour, Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds and Ben Wolbransky discuss the top 15 player props for Week 16 in the NFL.

Josh Larky’s Top-5 Props

  1. Nelson Agholor UNDER 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110 on Bet365): “He’s been lower than this number in 8 of his 9 previous games. [Cincinnati] is pretty much a top-10 pass defense.”
  2. Joe Mixon UNDER 83.5 Total Yards (-115 on Bet365 and DraftKings): “I kind of think that [Samaje] Perine played well enough in [Mixon’s] absence to carve out a bigger role. … Patriots are ninth in Rush DVOA, per Football Outsiders. If you look on The Edge, the Patriots only allow 3.9 yards per carry.”
  3. Alvin Kamara OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards: “Alvin Kamara’s in for a great yardage day. The Browns allow 5.4 yards per carry to running backs this season, the second-most in the NFL. There’s no warm bodies left in this offense.”
  4. Christian McCaffrey UNDER 80.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on Bet365): “The Commanders have the fourth-best run defense, per Football Outsiders. He is coming off a massive workload (31 touches). It is not a Christian McCaffrey rushing week.”
  5. Dalvin Cook OVER 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110 on Bet365): “He has at least 76 rushing yards in nine of 14 games this year. The Giants allow 5.4 yards per carry to running backs, tied for second-most in the NFL. And the Giants have allowed a running back to go higher than this number in 11 of 14 games this year.”

Ryan Reynolds’s Top-5 Props

  1. Mark Andrews OVER 44.5 Yards Receiving (-115 on DraftKings): “The Falcons have allowed the eighth-most PPR points to tight ends lined up in the slot; Mark Andrews plays the majority of his snaps in the slot. On top of that, Andrews is coming off a fantastic season … a lot of that came with Tyler Huntley at quarterback.”
  2. Desmond Ridder Throws INT vs. Baltimore (-115 on DraftKings): “He didn’t breach 100 yards passing last week in his NFL debut. I believe he had a 50 percent completion percentage. Expect a negative game script for the Falcons.”
  3. T.J. Watt OVER .75 Sacks (-105 on DraftKings): “The Steelers have a pretty considerable trench advantage against the Raiders’ below-average offensive line. The Steelers have been trending up. Bet on the Steelers’ headliner in a plus matchup at good odds.”
  4. Christian McCaffrey UNDER 20.5 Attempts (-115 on DraftKings): “In his eight games as a 49er, he has gone under this number seven times. With the division clinched … we can expect some type of load management this week.”
  5. Jerick McKinnon OVER 21.5 Yards Receiving (-110 on DraftKings): “He has beat this number in four of his last five games. On top of that, the Seahawks’ style of defense invites dump-offs to running backs.”

Ben Wolby’s Top-5 Props

  1. D.J. Moore OVER 53.5 Yards (-115 on DraftKings Sports Book): He has gone over 53.5 yards in 2 of 3 games he has played with Sam Darnold, and he is already top 10 in wide receiver target-share percentage this year. He has only improved that with Darnold playing.
  2. Geno Smith OVER 1.5 Touchdowns (+110 on DraftKings): I’ve got a list of quarterbacks who did not throw two touchdowns against Kansas City: Malik Willis, Bryce Perkins, and Jeff Driskel. This is automatically a phenomenal bet. Geno has done this in 11 of 14 games, and the Chiefs have allowed it in 12 of 14.
  3. Joe Mixon Longest Rush UNDER 13.5: Mixon just hasn’t been efficient all year long. The majority of every good thing he’s done this year came in that game against Carolina. New England has allowed only eight rushes over 13.5 yards all season, and Mixon has only done this on six rushes out of 183 total.
  4. James Conner UNDER 17.5 Attempts: The Cardinals are likely to be in a negative game script. It is going to get ugly fast. They only ran the ball 30 percent of their plays down at least a touchdown last week, and that’s for a team that already runs the ball at the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL. Conner has topped this number only twice all year.
  5. Kirk Cousins OVER 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110): The Vikings pass at the third-highest rate in the NFL, and Cousins is averaging about 39 attempts in the NFL. Opponents against the Giants average 33 attempts a game.

For a full discussion of each prop, watch the video above.

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