Betting

NFL Week 16 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Texans vs. Titans

Davis Mills DeMarcus Walker Texans vs. Titans

Texans (1-12-1) at Titans (7-7)

Opening Spread: Titans -7

Opening Game Total: 39

Opening Team Totals: Titans (23) Texans (16)

Weather: Outdoors, cold temperatures

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Titans -7.
  • This line has moved to Titans -3.5.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Titans -4.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Titans -3.5.
  • This total opened at 39 points.
  • This total has moved all the way down to 35.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Titans: Out: QB Ryan Tannehill, RG Nate Davis, LB Dylan Cole, CB Kristian Fulton; Questionable: WR Treylon Burks, LG Aaron Brewer, RT Nicholas Petit-Frere, S Amani Hooker

Texans: Out: WR Nico Collins, LG Kenyon Green; Questionable: WR Brandin Cooks, WR Chris Moore, CB Steven Nelson

The Titans Offense vs. Texans Defense

I have the Titans’ injury-ravaged offensive line as a bottom-tier group. I have the Texans’ defensive front as a bottom-tier group themselves. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Titans are 8-5-1 against the spread this season.
  • The Titans are 5-9 on overs this season.
  • Malik Willis is 2-0 against the spread in his career.
  • Malik Willis is 0-2 on overs in his career.
  • Mike Vrabel is 41-36-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Mike Vrabel is 43-35-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.


Titans Offense

  • The Titans are scoring 18.2 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
  • Tennessee is 28th in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing.
  • The Titans are passing on 55% of their plays and running on 45% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
  • Malik Willis has started two games this season. He threw 26 total passes and had 13 total carries over those two contests.
  • Per the Edge, Derrick Henry is second in the league in yards rushing with 1,303 and tied for third in rushing touchdowns with 12. Henry is seventh among running backs in yards receiving.
  • Henry ran for 219 yards rushing against the Texans earlier this year. The Big Dog did not face Houston last season, but in 2020 he ran for 250 and 212 yards against the Texans.
  • Robert Woods has been held below 50 yards receiving ten of his last 11 games.
  • Treylon Burks has missed six games this season, but he’s been the most dynamic pass-catcher on this offense by a mile this season.
  • Chigoziem Okonkwo has at least five targets and 45 yards receiving in each of his last five games.

Texans Defense

  • The Texans have allowed 24.6 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Texans have allowed the most yards rushing per game and the 15th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Houston has given up the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Texans have allowed the tenth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • The Texans have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends and the ninth most to those lined up in the slot. 

The Texans Offense vs. Titans Defense

Houston has the talent to be a good offensive line, but they have been a below-average group for most of this season. With Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry both active, the Titans have a top-ten level front. Tennessee’s defense has a significant advantage in the trenches against Houston.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Texans are 6-7-1 against the spread this season.
  • The Texans are 6-8 on overs this season.
  • Davis Mills is 10-11-1 against the spread in his career.
  • Davis Mills is 11-11 on overs in his career.
  • Lovie Smith is 88-93-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Lovie Smith is 88-99-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach. 


Texans Offense

  • The Texans are scoring 16.8 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
  • Houston is 26th in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing.
  • The Texans are passing on 64% of their plays and running on 36% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
  • Houston has given the Cowboys and Chiefs very competitive games since Davis Mills returned as the Texans’ starting quarterback.
  • Per the Edge, with Dameon Pierce sidelined last week against the Chiefs, Royce Freeman had 11 carries with one target, Dare Ogunbowale had eight carries with no carries, and Rex Burkhead had no carries with four targets.
  • With Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins both sidelined, Chris Moore has 19 total targets over the last two games.
  • Jordan Akins has five or more targets in three of his last four games.
  • Jeff Driskel has thrown 10 passes with 11 carries as a gadget player over the past two games. 

Titans Defense

  • The Titans have allowed 20.9 points per game, which is 12th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Titans have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing per game and the 12th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Tennessee has given up the third-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • Tennessee has given up the most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the fourth-most to those in the slot.
  • The Titans have allowed the second-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • The Titans have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends.

This Is What You’re Betting on in Titans vs. Texans

The Titans have lost four straight, getting blown out by the Eagles and Jaguars over that span. For the second year in a row Tennessee’s roster has been ravaged by injuries, but the truth of the matter is the Titans went into the season with an above average defensive front and Derrick Henry. From a talent standpoint, the Titans are below average at quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, offensive line, and in their secondary. If you’re betting on the Titans, you are betting on Mike Vrabel and his staff getting the most out of a roster filled with holes. Ryan Tannehill is out, which means Malik Willis is the Titans’ quarterback. Willis is an interesting prospect with dynamic athletic ability, but the Titans only let him throw 26 total passes over two starts earlier in the season. If you’re betting on the Titans, you are either betting on Malik Willis to be a significantly different player in a matter of weeks or you’re relying on The Big Dog carrying the Titans past the Texans once again. As astounding as it is to say, Henry has breached 200 yards rushing in each of his last four games against Houston. If you pair that with a strong defensive effort from the Titans’ defense, which is healthier than it’s been in weeks, you have a realistic path to a decisive Titans’ victory. Your primary concern as a Titans bettor is that Davis Mills’ offense puts up another strong output, which forces Malik Willis to win this game. Keep in mind the Jaguars now control their own destiny in the AFC South race.

The Texans have taken the Cowboys and the Chiefs to the brink over the past two weeks. If you’re betting on the Texans, you are betting on Houston maintaining this sudden strong level of play. A bet on the Texans can also be a direct bet against Malik Willis. To be clear, Houston is the worst team in football, and they’ve played over their heads in each of the last two weeks. Your primary concerns as a Texans bettor are that The Big Dog continues to destroy Houston while the Titans’ defense plays its best game in weeks. In essence, your primary concern as a Texans bettor is that this game looks a lot like Week 8’s 17-10 loss against the Titans. Malik Willis started that game, so we’ve seen Tennessee beat Houston with Willis.

Awards Market Ramifications: None

Winner/Confidence Pool: I will be Titans-heavy in winner pools, but the shift from Tannehill to Willis creates more paths to a Texans’ upset. I expect to be right in line with consensus on this contest in confidence pools.

Spread Pool: I’m going to stay away from directly betting this game against the spread.

Survivor Pool: I’m less confident in the Titans in survivor pools with Malik Willis at the helm.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 46-24
Props 2022: 51-31

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