Analysis

12/22/22

8 min read

NFL Week 16 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Seahawks vs. Chiefs

By Ryan Reynolds

Jerick McKinnon

Seahawks (7-7) at Chiefs (11-3) 

Opening Spread: Chiefs -9.5.

Opening Game Total: 49.

Opening Team Totals: Chiefs (29.25) Seahawks (19.75).

Weather: Outdoors, below-freezing temperatures.

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Chiefs -9.5.
  • This line remains at -9.5.
  • This total opened at 49 points.
  • This total has moved to 48.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Chiefs: Questionable: DT Khalen Saunders.

Seahawks: Out: WR Tyler Lockett. Questionable: RB Kenneth Walker III, RB DeeJay Dallas, WR Marquise Goodwin, TE Noah Fant, DL Al Woods, Edge Bruce Irvin, LB Jordyn Brooks, S Ryan Neal.

The Chiefs Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

I have the Chiefs ranked as a top-10 offensive line with one of the best interiors in the league. I have the Seahawks ranked as a bottom-tier front. Kansas City’s offensive line has a major advantage in the trenches against Seattle.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Chiefs are 5-9 against the spread this season.
  • Kansas City is 7-7 on overs this season.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 39-36-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Mahomes is 41-35-1 on overs in his career.
  • Andy Reid is 195-165-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
  • Reid is 180-176-11 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.

Chiefs Offense

  • Kansas City is scoring 29.6 points per game, which is the best in the league.
  • The Chiefs are first in the league in yards passing per game and 16th in yards rushing.
  • Kansas City passes on 68% of their plays and runs on 32% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
  • Jerick McKinnon has at least eight targets and 70 yards receiving in each of his last two games, per The Edge. McKinnon has double-digit carries once this season (last week), but he’s now fourth in the league in yards receiving among running backs.
  • Isiah Pacheco continues to be the Chiefs' primary ball carrier, with 13 or more carries and at least 66 yards rushing in each of his last six games. Pacheco has more than one target in only two of those six contests.
  • Juju Smith-Schuster has an 18.5% target share with a 24.2% air yards share.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a 12.6% target share and a 23.9% air yards share.
  • Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore combined for five yards receiving on one catch in Houston last week.
  • Travis Kelce is fourth in the league in receptions (91), sixth in yards receiving (1144), and he’s tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns (12). Among tight ends, Kelce is third in target share (24.5%), and air yards share (24.2%).
  • Kelce has played 279 snaps as an inline tight end, 177 on the perimeter, and 270 in the slot, per TruMedia.

Seahawks Defense

  • Seattle has allowed 25.4 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
  • The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most yards rushing and the fourth-most yards receiving per game to running backs, per The Edge.
  • Seattle has given up the third-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Seahawks have allowed the third-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • Seattle has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends. 

The Seahawks Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

I have the Seahawks' offensive line tiered as a league-average unit. I have the Chiefs' defensive front tiered toward the front of league average. I’m treating this trench advantage as a relative draw from a macro sense, though Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones is a concern for anyone.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Seahawks are 6-8 against the spread this season.
  • Seattle is 8-6 on overs this season.
  • Geno Smith is 25-21-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Smith is 24-23-1 on overs in his career.
  • Pete Carroll is 108-92-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
  • Carroll is 104-100-3 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.

Seahawks Offense

  • Seattle is scoring 25.4 points per game, which is seventh in the league.
  • The Seahawks are eighth in the league in yards passing per game and 22nd in yards rushing.
  • Seattle passes on 65% of their plays and runs on 35% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
  • Kenneth Walker III is 25th in the league in yards rushing with 697, and he’s tied for eighth in rushing touchdowns with nine, per The Edge.
  • DK Metcalf has 79 receptions for 924 yards receiving with six touchdowns. Metcalf has a 26% target share and a 37.7% air yards share. Metcalf has eight or more targets in six of his last seven games.
  • Marquise Goodwin has breached 40 yards receiving in three of his 11 games this season.
  • Noah Fant’s usage has been inconsistent week-to-week, but he’s in a high-upside position with Tyler Lockett sidelined.
  • Metcalf has played 555 snaps on the perimeter and 113 in the slot, per TruMedia.
  • Goodwin has played 156 snaps on the perimeter and 195 in the slot.
  • Fant has played 278 snaps as an inline tight end, 59 on the perimeter and 131 in the slot.

Chiefs Defense

  • Kansas City has allowed 23 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
  • The Chiefs have allowed the 27th-most yards rushing and the second-most yards receiving per game to running backs, per The Edge.
  • Kansas City has given up the 13th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Chiefs have given up the seventh-most PPR points to slot receivers.
  • Kansas City has allowed the 21st-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • The Chiefs have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.

This Is What You’re Betting On in Chiefs vs. Seahawks

The Chiefs were supposed to have the league's hardest schedule. However, when looking back, the Bills, Bengals, 49ers and their two games against the Chargers are the only contests against premium opponents this season. Kansas City beat up the 49ers, but they were taken to the brink by the Chargers twice while losing to both the Bills and Bengals. The Chiefs have won one-score games against the Raiders and Titans (which is fine), but during the last two weeks, they’ve been challenged by both the Broncos and Texans.

If You're Betting on the Chiefs

Any bet on the Chiefs starts as a bet on Mahomes, a yearly MVP contender, and Reid, a future Hall of Famer. That historic duo could conceivably dismantle Seattle, who has allowed 30 points to the Panthers and 23 to the Rams. If you’re betting on the Chiefs, you need a decisive victory, so you are betting on a big game out of their offense. Your primary concern as a Chiefs' bettor is Seattle's high ceiling on offense. Plus, this is a must-win game for them. Your second biggest concern is the Chiefs are the third-best team (not the first) in the AFC, and they are coasting through the end of the regular season, which would explain their narrow win in Houston last week. 

If You're Betting on the Seahawks

You don’t want to go into Kansas City as banged up as the Seahawks are right now. They are down Lockett, which reduces the ceiling of this passing attack. On top of that, Walker and DeeJay Dallas remain on the injury report. Seattle's offense performs best when it's balanced. As good as Smith has been this season, you don’t want him carrying an offense. He might have to do that if Seattle is going to stay in this game. Expecting a big game from Smith is both your clearest path to a Seahawks cover and one of your concerns as a Seattle bettor. Your biggest concern as a Seahawks bettor is Seattle not stopping the Chiefs' offense to the point they easily exceed their already lofty 29.25 team total.

Awards Market Ramifications: Patrick Mahomes is the current MVP favorite with Jalen Hurts’ Week 16 status in doubt.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Chiefs in winner pools, but the desperate Seahawks are an interesting differentiator option. I expect to be at least adjacent to the consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.

Spread Pool: I have no faith in the Seahawks, but I would only take Seahawks +9.5 or pass in this contest. I’m currently leaning toward passing.

Survivor Pool: The Chiefs are a good survivor pool option this week, though their recent underwhelming performance against the Texans gives me more pause than I would have expected a month ago.

Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 46-24

Props 2022: 51-31

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Tags: DK Metcalf, Geno Smith, Isiah Pacheco See More

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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