Betting
12/23/22
8 min read
NFL Week 16 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Raiders vs. Steelers
Christmas Eve Night: Raiders (6-8) at Steelers (6-8)
Opening Spread: Steelers -2.
Opening Game Total: 41.
Opening Team Totals: Steelers (21.5) Raiders (19.5).
Weather: Outdoors, cold temperatures.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Steelers -2.
- This line has moved to Steelers -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Steelers -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Steelers -2.5.
- This total opened at 41-points.
- This total has moved to 39.5-points.
Notable Injuries
Steelers: Questionable: WR Diontae Johnson, LB Myles Jack, S Terrell Edmunds.
Raiders: Out: CB Rock Ya-Sin. Questionable: LG Dylan Parham, RG Alex Bars, DT Andrew Billings, LB Darien Butler.
The Steelers Offense vs. the Raiders Defense
The Steelers have a below average offensive line. The Raiders have a below average defensive front, despite having premium edge rusher Maxx Crosby. This trench matchup is a relative draw between below average units, but Crosby has a significant individual advantage off the outside.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Steelers are 7-6-1 against the spread this season.
- The Steelers are 6-8 on overs this season.
- Kenny Pickett is 5-4 against the spread in his career.
- Kenny Pickett is 3-6 on overs in his career.
- Mike Tomlin is 130-120-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Tomlin is 112-140-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Steelers Offense
- The Steelers are scoring 17.9 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
- Pittsburgh is 24th in the league in yards passing per game and 18th in yards rushing.
- The Steelers are passing on 61% of their plays and running on 39% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Najee Harris is 16th in the league in yards rushing with 790. Harris has one target or less in three of his last four games.
- Diontae Johnson has 29 total targets over his last three games and at least 60 yards receiving in each of those contests.
- George Pickens has at least 50 yards receiving in four of his last five games.
- Among tight ends, Pat Freiermuth is eighth in target share (19%) and sixth in target share (18.4%).
- Per TruMedia, Pat Freiermuth has played 401 snaps as an inline tight end, 21 on the perimeter, and 133 in the slot.
Raiders Defense
- The Raiders have allowed 24.1 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 14th-most yards rushing per game and the most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Las Vegas has given up the 14th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Raiders have allowed the 15th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Raiders have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the 10th most to those lined up in the slot.
The Raiders Offense vs. the Steelers Defense
The Raiders have a below-average offensive line. The Steelers have a top-five level front. The Steelers defensive front has a significant advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Raiders are 7-7 against the spread this season.
- The Raiders are 7-6-1 on overs this season.
- Derek Carr is 68-71-2 against the spread in his career.
- Derek Carr is 73-63-5 on overs in his career.
- Josh McDaniels is 20-22 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Josh McDaniels is 21-20-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Raiders Offense
- The Raiders are scoring 24.1 points per game, which is 10th in the league.
- Las Vegas is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and 13th in yards rushing.
- The Raiders are passing on 62% of their plays and running on 38% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Josh Jacobs leads the league in rushing with 1,495, and he’s tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns with 11. Jacobs is ninth among running backs in yards receiving.
- Davante Adams is sixth in the league in receptions (86), fourth in yards receiving (1,275), tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns (12), the leader in target share (32.8%), and fourth in air yards share (42.1%).
- Hunter Renfrow returned to action last week, while seeing just three targets.
- Darren Waller also returned to action last week, while seeing just three targets. However, Waller had a 3-48-1 line against the Patriots.
- Per TruMedia, Davante Adams has played 644 snaps on the perimeter and 172 in the slot.
- Renfrow has played 32 snaps on the perimeter and 228 in the slot.
Steelers Defense
- The Steelers have allowed 22.1 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Steelers have allowed the 16th-most yards rushing per game and the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Pittsburgh has given up the fifth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Pittsburgh has given up the 10th-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the fifth most to slot receivers.
- The Steelers have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Raiders vs. Steelers
The Steelers have won four of their last six games, with two one-score losses to the Bengals and Ravens over that span. The Steelers defense has been an entirely different unit since headliner T.J. Watt returned to action at the start of this run. Pittsburgh has given up less than 20 points in five of those six games, with their contest against Joe Burrow’s Bengals serving as the only exception. If you’re betting on the Steelers, you are betting on Pittsburgh’s defense taking advantage of their significant trench advantage in this contest. The Raiders offense has a significant ceiling, which makes that trench matchup a key to this game.
Kenny Pickett’s offense has been inconsistent this season, which isn’t abnormal for rookie quarterbacks playing behind a below-average offensive line. That said, keep in mind that Pickett’s Steelers lost to the Bengals 37-30. If you’re betting on the Steelers, you are primarily betting on their defense, but this offense has spike game potential against the Raiders suspect defense. You have two primary concerns as a Steelers bettor. The first is that the Raiders are able to mitigate the Steelers front through play calling, which leads to Vegas at least meeting expectations offensively. In that outcome, you need the Steelers offense to hang with the Raiders in a semi-shootout. Relying on Pittsburgh’s inconsistent offense in that kind of scenario is your second biggest concern as a Steelers bettor.
The Raiders got their full complement of skill position players back last week. At full strength, the Raiders offense can hang with the offensive juggernauts of the league. If you’re betting on the Raiders, you are building that bet around their highly capable offense. While the Raiders offense has a considerable ceiling, it’s been an inconsistent group throughout Josh McDaniels’ first season. That starts your list of concerns as a Raiders bettor.
Next up is that Vegas has a major obstacle against the Steelers pass rush. If the Raiders struggle offensively in this game, there’s a strong chance the Steelers front is the primary reason behind that. The Raiders have a below-average defense that is capable of allowing a spike game to just about any opponent, which opens the door to the Steelers at least meeting expectations offensively. Vegas is also coming off an emotional win last week against the Patriots, which is the type of event I try to bet against when possible.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will be Steelers heavy in winner pools, in a 7-3 type of ratio. I expect to be at least adjacent to consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will take the Steelers or pass here.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 46-24
Props 2022: 51-31
WATCH MORE: Where Does Derek Carr Rank Among Top QBs?
