Opening Spread: Dolphins -4.5
Opening Game Total: 46.5
Opening Team Totals: Dolphins (25.5) Packers (21)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Dolphins -4.5.
- This line has moved to Dolphins -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Dolphins -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Dolphins -3.5.
- This total opened at 46.5 points.
- This total has moved all the way up to 49.5 points.
Packers: Doubtful: LT David Bakhtiari
The Dolphins Offense vs. Packers Defense
Starting off, I have the Dolphins’ offensive line tiered as a league average group. I have the Packers’ injury-reduced defensive front tiered in the average to slightly below average range. Neither side has a significant advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Dolphins are 7-7 against the spread this season.
- The Dolphins are 7-7 on overs this season.
- Tua Tagovailoa is 19-13-1 against the spread in his career.
- Tua Tagovailoa is 15-18 on overs in his career.
- Mike McDaniel is 7-7 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike McDaniel is 7-7 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Dolphins are scoring 24.6 points per game, good for ninth in the league.
- Miami is second in the league in yards passing per game and 27th in yards rushing.
- The Dolphins are passing on 65% of their plays and running on 35% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Raheem Mostert is 20th in the league in yards rushing with 746. Mostert is coming off a 136-yard rushing spike against the Bills last week.
- Jeff Wilson has been on the injury report and taken a back seat to Mostert over the last two games. When both players are healthy, expect this to be a “ride the hot hand” type of timeshare.
- Tyreek Hill is second in the league in receptions (109), second in yards receiving (1,529), tied for seventh in receiving touchdowns (7), second in target share (32.4%), and sixth in air yards share (40.8%).
- Jaylen Waddle has 62 receptions for 1,117 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. Waddle has a 21.3% target share and a 28.7% air yards share.
- Mike Gesicki has made one reception over his last four games.
- The Packers have allowed 22.4 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Packers have allowed the fifth-most yards rushing per game and 22nd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Green Bay has given up the 27th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Packers also have allowed the second-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Packers Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
With Bakhtiari unlikely to play, I have the Packers’ offensive line tiered at the front of league average. Miami’s defensive front has been trending up for weeks, where I now have them as a fringe-top ten unit. Neither side has a significant advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Packers are 6-8 against the spread this season.
- The Packers are 7-7 on overs this season.
- Aaron Rodgers is 125-91-4 against the spread in his career.
- Aaron Rodgers is 114-105-1 on overs in his career.
- Matt LaFleur is 38-25 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Matt LaFleur is 30-33 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Packers are scoring 20.5 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- Green Bay is 18th in the league in yards passing per game and 12th in yards rushing.
- The Packers are passing on 60% of their plays and running on 40% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Aaron Jones is tenth in the league in yards rushing with 937. Jones is eighth among running backs in yards receiving.
- A.J. Dillon has double-digit carries in ten of his 14 games with at least three targets in each of his last four.
- Christian Watson has at least six targets and 45 yards receiving in each of his last five games. Watson has breached 100 yards receiving twice with seven total touchdowns during that span.
- Allen Lazard has a 20.1% target share and a 30.5% air yards share this season.
- Romeo Doubs saw five targets in his return to action last week.
- Robert Tonyan has 20 or fewer yards receiving in each of his last five games.
- The Dolphins have allowed 24.6 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Dolphins have allowed the fourth-fewest yards rushing per game and the fifth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Miami has given up the 11th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Dolphins have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends and the fifth most to those lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Dolphins vs. Packers
The Dolphins have lost their last three games, putting them in danger of missing the playoffs. Those losses came against title contenders in the Bills and 49ers, while the third loss came against the surging Chargers. In a vacuum, there is no shame in losing to any of those teams. However, those negative outcomes make this a borderline must win for Miami.
If you’re betting on the Dolphins, you are betting on a talented, but young, team in a high-pressure spot against Aaron Rodgers’ Packers. Green Bay has underwhelmed this season, but this is not a layup for the Dolphins. Any Dolphins bet is built around Mike McDaniel’s innovative offense where Tagovailoa effectively gets the ball in the hands of speed demons Hill and Waddle. Hill and Waddle combine as the best wide receiver duo in the league. I’d even call them an unprecedented pairing of elite speedsters with complete skill sets. This group faces a top-flight Packers’ secondary.
It hasn’t shown up on the scoreboard during Miami’s three-game losing streak against high-end opponents, but the Dolphins’ defense is more formidable now than it was early in the season. That stance is primarily built on the Dolphins’ improved pass rush. You don’t want to build a Dolphins bet around their defense, but that pass rush playing up against Green Bay’s inconsistent offense creates a path that wouldn’t have existed earlier in the season. Your biggest concern as a Dolphins bettor is that their offense struggles against a talented defense, while Rodgers provides enough offense to steal this game.
Green Bay has a narrow path to making the playoffs, but they are going to have to win out to have a shot. That makes this a game between two highly motivated teams. Offensively, Rodgers still possesses his otherworldly play making ability, but he’s been less consistent than he’s really ever been in his professional career. Most of that is on his mediocre supporting cast and coaching staff, but there’s really no question that the injury to his throwing finger is impacting a few throws every game.
If you’re betting on Green Bay you aren’t banking on a massive spike game out of the Packers’ offense, but you are expecting them to meet their 21-point team total. The Packers’ pass defense against the Dolphins’ high-ceiling offense is the key to this game, as that is a strength vs. strength matchup. What’s lost in the shuffle is that Miami has a capable running game against a leaky Packers run defense. From a game planning standpoint, Green Bay is far more likely to take their chances with the Dolphins’ run game than they will with Hill and Waddle. In this matchup, Packers’ bettors should be more worried about their defense than their offense.
Awards Market Ramifications: Tyreek Hill is an Offensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I will be Dolphins-heavy in winner pools, but I will take the Packers as a differentiator option in at least one of my entries. I expect to be slightly below consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I am very split on this game, so I will not directly bet on it against the spread.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 46-24
Props 2022: 51-31