Analysis
12/22/22
8 min read
NFL Week 16 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Lions vs. Panthers
Lions (7-7) at Panthers (5-9)
Opening Spread: Panthers +3.
Opening Game Total: 44.5.
Opening Team Totals: Panthers (20.75) Lions (23.75).
Weather: Outdoors, cold temperatures.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Panthers +3.
- This line has moved to Panthers +2.5.
- This total opened at 44.5 points.
- This total remains at 44.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Panthers: Questionable: CB Jaycee Horn.
Lions: Questionable: LT Taylor Decker, C Frank Ragnow, RG Evan Brown, LB Derrick Barnes, S DeShon Elliot.
The Panthers Offense vs. Lions Defense
Carolina's offensive line has been trending up for weeks now. I have them tiered toward the front end of league average. The Lions' defensive front has also been trending up for weeks. I now have them tiered on the back end of league average. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Panthers are 7-7 against the spread this season.
- Carolina is 6-8 on overs this season.
- Sam Darnold is 20-31-1 against the spread in his career.
- Darnold is 24-28 on overs in his career.
- Steve Wilks is 13-11-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Wilks is 11-14 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Panthers Offense
- Carolina is scoring 19.7 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- The Panthers are 30th in the league in yards passing per game and 17th in yards rushing.
- Carolina is passing on 55% of their plays and running on 45% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- The Panthers are 2-1 under Darnold.
- D’Onta Foreman has breached 100 yards rushing in four of his last eight games, but only once in his last four, per The Edge. Foreman has 20 or more carries in three of his last five games.
- Chuba Hubbard has 14 or more carries in two of the Panthers' last three games.
- In Carolina's two most recent wins, they had 46 total carries against the Seahawks and Broncos. In a negative game script against the Steelers last week, the Panthers had 16 total carries.
- In Darnold’s three starts, DJ Moore has breached 70 yards receiving twice but put up a zero on three targets in Seattle.
- Terrace Marshall’s mild ascension has come to an abrupt halt since Darnold took over, as Marshall has been held below 20 yards receiving in two of those three games.
- Panthers tight end Tommy Tremble has 121 yards receiving on the season. Ian Thomas has 176 yards receiving on the year.
- Moore has played 544 snaps on the perimeter and 203 in the slot, per TruMedia.
- Marshall has played 397 snaps on the perimeter and 45 in the slot.
- Tremble has played 325 snaps as an inline tight end, 11 on the perimeter and 44 in the slot.
- Thomas has played 379 snaps as an inline tight end, three on the perimeter and 34 in the slot.
Lions Defense
- Detroit has allowed 26 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- The Lions have allowed the 20th-most yards rushing and the fewest yards receiving per game to running backs, per The Edge.
- Detroit has given up the most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Lions have given up the most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- Detroit has allowed the ninth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Lions have allowed the most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
The Lions Offense vs. Panthers Defense
Detroit’s offensive line is a top-five group at full strength. With that in mind, the Lions have three starters listed as questionable on the early injury report. The Panthers’ front is yet another group in this game that has improved as the season has gone on. I now have Carolina as a league-average front. At full strength, the Lions' offensive line will have a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- Detroit is 10-4 against the spread this season.
- The Lions are 9-5 on overs this season.
- Jared Goff is 53-42-2 against the spread in his career.
- Goff is 48-49 on overs in his career.
- Dan Campbell is 25-18 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Campbell is 21-22 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Lions Offense
- Detroit is scoring 26.4 points per game, which is fifth in the league.
- The Lions are ninth in the league in yards passing per game and 14th in yards rushing.
- Detroit is passing on 58% of their plays and running on 42% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Jamaal Williams is 15th in the league in yards rushing (839), and he’s the leader in rushing touchdowns (14). Williams has double-digit carries in all 14 of his games this season, but he’s been held below 40 yards rushing in each of his last three, per The Edge.
- D’Andre Swift has double-digit carries in one of his last four games, but he has six or more targets in three of those contests.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown is fifth in the league in receptions (89), 10th in yards receiving (974), tied for 15th in touchdowns (6) and 12th in target share (28.1%) with a 24.5% air yards share.
- St. Brown has eight or more targets in each of his last eight games.
- DJ Chark has breached 90 yards receiving in two of his last three games.
- Jameson Williams has only played 33 snaps and ran 12 routes during the last three games, but he’s an obvious difference-maker from a talent perspective.
- St. Brown has played 281 snaps on the perimeter and 345 in the slot, per TruMedia.
- Chark has played 312 snaps on the perimeter and 74 in the slot.
Panthers Defense
- The Panthers have allowed 22.4 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- Carolina has allowed the eighth-most yards rushing and the 27th-most yards receiving per game to running backs, per The Edge.
- The Panthers have given up the 10th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Carolina has given up the third-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Panthers have allowed the 24th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Panthers vs. Lions
Wilks has done a remarkable job since taking over as Carolina's interim head coach. They are 4-4 under Wilks, which includes two one-score losses.
If You're Betting on the Panthers
If you’re betting on the Panthers, you are betting on a tough, physical football team that has gotten better as the year has progressed. The Panthers have a good defense with an offense that goes extremely run-heavy when they have a lead. While Darnold has been fine in his three starts, Carolina isn’t built to come from behind.
Ironically, the Panthers have become a lesser version of the 2022 Zach Wilson Jets. Your concern as a Panthers' bettor is Detroit's superior roster and momentum carries them. The Lions just went on the road and beat a better version of the Panthers in the Jets last week. If you’re betting on Carolina, you’re going to need the Lions to play down in their second road game in as many weeks.
If You're Betting on the Lions
The Lions are among the most exciting teams in football. They are in the midst of a 6-1 stretch to roar into the NFC playoff picture. Detroit has a top-five offensive line, one of the league’s best collections of skill position players, and one of the NFL’s best offensive play callers, and Goff has always been a good player when he’s well-supported.
The Lions have a premium, balanced offense capable of winning in any phase. If you’re betting on the Lions, you are primarily betting on their offense. Detroit’s defense was a liability early in the year, but they’ve improved as the season has progressed. The Lions' defense can keep the Panthers' offense near expectations. Your primary concern as a Lions’ bettor is they came out flat in their second road game in as many weeks.
This game mimics the Seahawks' loss to the Panthers in many ways. Keep in mind the Lions aren’t just beating teams, they have dominated several, including a tough, physical football team with a good defense in the Giants.
Awards Market Ramifications: Dan Campbell is a Coach of the Year contender. Aidan Hutchinson is a Defensive Rookie of the Year contender. Jared Goff is a Comeback Player of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Lions in winner pools, and I expect to be slightly higher than consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m taking the Lions or passing against the spread.
Survivor Pool: I’m not entirely opposed to taking Detroit in survivor pools this week if you lack any strong options.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 46-24
Props 2022: 51-31
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