Analysis
12/21/22
9 min read
NFL Week 16 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Jaguars at Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8) at New York Jets (7-7)
Opening Spread: Jets -1
Opening Game Total: 39.5
Opening Team Totals: Jets (20.25) Jaguars (19.25)
Weather: Outdoors, rain expected
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jets -1.
- This line has moved to Jets +.5.
- This total opened at 39.5 points.
- This total has moved to 38.5
Notable Injuries
Jets: Out: QB Mike White, RT George Fant; Questionable: RB Zonovan Knight, WR Corey Davis, LT Duane Brown, DT Quinnen Williams, S Lamarcus Joyner
Jaguars: Out: LT Cam Robinson, DL Folorunso Fatukasi, Edge Travon Walker; Questionable: QB Trevor Lawrence, RG Brandon Scherff, RT Jawaan Taylor, LB Chad Muma
The Jets Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
The Jets' injury issues at offensive tackle continue, as right tackle George Fant will miss this contest. Given Fant's absence, I have the Jets as a slightly below-average offensive line. No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker and defensive lineman Folorunso Fatukasi will miss this contest for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are an interesting front to evaluate as they've been inconsistent enough to be in the average to the below-average range, yet they have enough talent to be a problem for opposing offenses. Walker's absence lowers the ceiling of this group a considerable amount. All things considered, I'm treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jets are 8-6 against the spread this season.
- The Jets are 5-9 on overs this season.
- Zach Wilson is 10-11 against the spread in his career.
- Zach Wilson is 9-12 on overs in his career.
- Robert Saleh is 14-17 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Robert Saleh is 15-16 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Jets Offense
- The Jets are scoring 20.1 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- New York is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and 24th in yards rushing.
- The Jets are passing on 64% of their plays and running on 36% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Zach Wilson was better against the Lions than he was against the Bills or Patriots before his benching, but he still wasn't overly impressive.
- Per the Edge, Zonovan Knight continues to be the Jets' primary ball carrier, as he had 13 of New York's 17 running back carries against the Lions last week. Knight landed on the injury report with an ankle issue Wednesday.
- Michael Carter is consistently seeing around five carries per game, while his passing game usage is fluctuating from week to week.
- Garrett Wilson led the Jets with nine targets last week, ending up with four receptions for 98 yards receiving.
- Elijah Moore was second on the team with seven targets, which is very encouraging considering the issue Moore had with Zach Wilson earlier in the year.
- Tyler Conklin (56 snaps, 21 routes) was ahead of C.J. Uzomah (38 snaps, 10 routes) last week, but Uzomah had 41 yards receiving on two receptions, which both went for scores.
- Per TruMedia, Garrett Wilson has played 422 snaps on the perimeter and 254 in the slot.
- Corey Davis has played 348 snaps on the perimeter and 84 in the slot.
- Elijah Moore has played 337 snaps on the perimeter and 233 in the slot.
- Tyler Conklin has played 464 snaps as an inline tight end, 55 on the perimeter and 167 in the slot.
- C.J. Uzomah has played 316 snaps as an inline tight end, 32 on the perimeter, and 89 in the slot.
Jaguars Defense
- The Jaguars have allowed 23.4 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the 18th-most yards rushing per game and the third-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Jacksonville has given up the 15th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Jacksonville has given up the third-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Jaguars have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Jaguars Offense vs. Jets Defense
Jacksonville will be without left tackle Cam Robinson for the rest of the season, while their right guard and right tackle remain on Wednesday's injury report. At full strength, the Jaguars have a top-ten offensive line. Without Robinson, I'm moving them toward the front of the league average. If left tackle Jawaan Taylor or especially high-end right guard Brandon Scherff miss this contest, this unit would venture towards the fringe of below-average territory. That's bad news for the Jaguars in this matchup, as the Jets have a top-ten-level defensive front as full strength. However, Jets headliner Quinnen Williams remains on the injury report. If Williams is active, New York will have a moderate to significant trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jaguars are 6-8 against the spread this season.
- The Jaguars are 8-6 on overs this season.
- Trevor Lawrence is 11-20 against the spread in his career.
- Trevor Lawrence is 13-18 on overs in his career.
- Doug Pederson is 44-50 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Doug Pederson is 47-47 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars Offense
- The Jaguars are scoring 23.9 points per game, which is 12th in the league.
- Jacksonville is tenth in the league in yards passing per game and tenth in yards rushing.
- The Jaguars are passing on 62% of their plays and running on 38% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Trevor Lawrence has breached 300 yards passing in three of his last four games. Lawrence has at least three passing touchdowns in each of those games.
- After falling below 60 total yards in four straight games, Travis Etienne ran for 103 on 19 carries against the Cowboys last week. Etienne is 12th in the league in yards rushing with 917.
- Christian Kirk has a 24% target share with a 29.8% air yards share.
- Zay Jones has a 22.9% target share with a 26.4% air yards share. Jones went off for 109 yards receiving and three touchdowns on six receptions against the Cowboys last week.
- Marvin Jones has a 13.6% target share with a 25.4% air yards share.
- Evan Engram has a 17.1% target share with a 15% air yards share.
Jets Defense
- The Jets have allowed 18.8 points per game, which is fourth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 23rd-most yards rushing per game and the 13th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the second-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jets have allowed the 13th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You're Betting on in Jets vs. Jaguars
This Thursday night, we get two young, ascending teams with paths to making the playoffs. On top of that, we get a matchup between last year's No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence against last year's No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson. There are weather concerns here, it's expected to be cold and rainy, so we want to keep an eye on any reports of wind trending up.
A bet on the Jets is a bet on their elite defense in a must-win game. If star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams suits up for this game, the Jets will have a moderate trench advantage at minimum in this contest. On top of that, the Jets' secondary has forced tight windows against the Vikings, Bills, and Lions in recent weeks. All three of those teams have more talented skill groups than the Jaguars, who lack a true headlining option in their passing attack. If you're betting on the Jets, you are building that bet around New York's defense getting the most out of those advantages on a short week in an ugly weather game. You have two core concerns as a Jets bettor. The first is that Trevor Lawrence is now playing like a top-ten quarterback in the league that's capable of carrying his team against anyone. The second is that Zach Wilson's offense has been underwhelming this year, which is why he was benched for Mike White. If you're betting on the Jets, you're expecting New York to at least meet its 20-point team total. That's hardly a given.
Trevor Lawrence was a historically relevant quarterback prospect last year, and now he's reached the point where he's consistently playing like one. If you are betting on the Jaguars now or going forward, you are building that bet around Trevor Lawrence. Getting the Jets' defense, on a short week, in an ugly weather game while being down your left tackle and potentially two other starting linemen is a difficult position for any quarterback. However, if you're betting on Jacksonville, you are betting on Lawrence overcoming those obstacles and being the difference in this game. Travon Walker missing this contest is significant for Jacksonville. With Walker, the Jaguars' front has the capacity to significantly impact a game against an offensive line like New York's. That type of outcome isn't off the table without Walker, but it is less likely. Ultimately, a bet on the Jaguars can be a bet on Trevor Lawrence and a bet against Zach Wilson.
Awards Market Ramifications: Robert Saleh and Doug Pederson are Coach of the Year candidates. Sauce Gardner is the Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite. Garrett Wilson is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I will get exposure to both of these teams in winner pools, but I expect to be slightly Jets-heavy in that format. I will rank this game as close to the bottom as I can in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I have a slight lean towards the Jets ATS on the short week in the bad weather, so this will be a Jets bet or pass for me. I expect to have an updated stance on this contest during our SiriusXM radio show tomorrow night starting at 6 PM Eastern.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan's recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 46-24
Props 2022: 51-31
WATCH: St. Brown Brothers Episode 7
