Betting
12/23/22
8 min read
NFL Week 16 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Eagles vs. Cowboys
Eagles (13-1) at Cowboys (10-4)
Opening Spread: Cowboys -1.5.
Opening Game Total: 51.
Opening Team Totals: Cowboys (26.25) Eagles (24.75).
Weather: Indoors.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cowboys -1.5.
- This line has moved to Cowboys -4.5 with a peak of Cowboys -6.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Cowboys -4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Cowboys -5.5.
- This total opened at 51-points.
- This total has moved to 46.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Cowboys: Out: LB Leighton Vander Esch. Questionable: DL Dorance Armstrong, LB Micah Parsons, CB Trevon Diggs.
Eagles: Out: QB Jalen Hurts, P Arryn Siposs.
The Cowboys Offense vs. the Eagles Defense
The Cowboys have a top-10 offensive line. The Eagles have a top-five defensive front. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup where neither side has a significant advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cowboys are 8-6 against the spread this season.
- The Cowboys are 8-6 on overs this season.
- Dak Prescott is 52-39-3 against the spread in his career.
- Dak Prescott is 47-47 on overs in his career.
- Mike McCarthy is 138-108-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike McCarthy is 138-111-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Cowboys Offense
- The Cowboys are scoring 28.1 points per game, good for third in the league.
- Dallas is 22nd in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing.
- The Cowboys are passing on 54% of their plays and running on 46% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Tony Pollard is eighth in the league in yards rushing with 969. Pollard is 12th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Ezekiel Elliott is 17th in the league in yards rushing with 774.
- CeeDee Lamb is eighth in the league in receptions (81), eighth in yards receiving (1,087), ninth in target share (28.8%), and 14th in air yards share (36.4%).
- Michael Gallup has breached 50 yards receiving in one of his 11 games this season.
- Noah Brown has 15 total targets over his last two games.
- Dalton Schultz has four or more targets in all nine of the games that he and Prescott have played this season.
Eagles Defense
- The Eagles have allowed 19.1 points per game, which is sixth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Eagles have allowed the 19th-most yards rushing per game and the 20th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Philadelphia has given up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Eagles have allowed the 25th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Eagles Offense vs. the Cowboys Defense
The Eagles have a top-five offensive line. The Cowboys have a top-five defensive front. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup where neither side has a significant advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Eagles are 8-6 against the spread this season.
- The Eagles are 9-5 on overs this season.
- Gardner Minshew is 10-12 against the spread in his career.
- Nick Sirianni is 16-14-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nick Sirianni is 19-12 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Eagles Offense
- The Eagles are scoring 29.4 points per game, which is second in the league.
- Philadelphia is 10th in the league in yards passing per game and fourth in yards rushing.
- The Eagles are passing on 55% of their plays and running on 45% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Gardner Minshew is taking over for injured Jalen Hurts.
- Per the Edge, Miles Sanders is fifth in the league in yards rushing with 1,110, and he’s tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns with 11.
- A.J. Brown is 14th in the league in receptions (74), fifth in yards receiving (1,201), tied for third in receiving touchdowns (10), eighth in target share (28.9%), and 10th in air yards share (39.5%).
- DeVonta Smith has 71 receptions for 901 yards receiving and five touchdowns. Smith has a 25.2% target share and a 29.9% air yards share.
- Dallas Goedert is off the injury report. Goedert has a 20.5% target share and 13.5% air yards share on the season. Goedert was among the league leaders in YAC before his injury.
- Per TruMedia, A.J. Brown has played 530 snaps on the perimeter and 237 in the slot.
- DeVonta Smith has played 645 snaps on the perimeter and 183 in the slot.
Cowboys Defense
- The Cowboys have allowed 19.2 points per game, which is seventh in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Cowboys have allowed the 10th-most yards rushing per game and the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Dallas has given up the 18th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Dallas has given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Cowboys have allowed the 27th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Eagles vs. Cowboys
The Cowboys haven’t played particularly well recently, as they narrowly escaped the Texans before losing to the Jaguars in overtime last week. Dallas is a good team with premium lines on both sides of the ball, playmakers in their secondary, one of the best running back duos in the league, a true WR1, and a good but not quite great quarterback in Dak Prescott. Prescott has not yet breached 300 yards passing in a game this season.
If the Cowboys lose to Gardner Minshew’s Eagles, it’s a good bet that Prescott takes the brunt of the blame in that scenario. If you’re betting on Dallas in this spot, your expectation is that Prescott’s offense at least meets expectations against a high-end Eagles defense. Considering that the Cowboys have to win by some margin in this contest to cover, if I’m betting on the Cowboys, I’m doing so with the expectation that they force a turnover or two in this contest. Your primary concern as a Cowboys bettor is that Dallas struggles to run the ball effectively while Prescott’s passing attack continues to be quietly underwhelming. Pair that outcome with the Eagles effectively running the ball while Minshew plays a turnover-free game while making a couple of plays against the Cowboys beatable perimeter, and the Eagles can win this game outright.
My favorite aspect of an Eagles bet is that they aren’t under very much pressure in this spot because the pressure is on the Cowboys. The Eagles have the raw materials to win this game, but few are genuinely expecting Gardner Minshew to go into Dallas and beat the Cowboys. Considering how talented Minshew’s supporting cast is on both sides of the ball, that puts the Eagles in a very interesting position against a Cowboys team that’s struggled over the past two weeks.
If you’re betting on the Eagles, you’re building that bet around their defense playing up against a good but not quite great Cowboys offense. In that outcome, you don’t need Minshew to be a world-beater; you just need him to be what he’s shown in the past in order to keep this game close. Your biggest concern as an Eagles bettor is that Dallas plays up after two down weeks while Minshew’s offense is forced to play from behind early.
Awards Market Ramifications: Nick Sirianni is the current Coach of the Year favorite and could make a major statement if the Eagles won this game. Micah Parsons is a Defensive Player of the Year favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will be slightly Cowboys-heavy in winner pools, in a 7-3 if not 6-4 type of ratio. I expect to be a little lower than consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will take the Eagles or pass here. In ATS tournaments where I could get the Eagles as 6-point underdogs I’d definitely take my chances at that number.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 46-24
Props 2022: 51-31
WATCH MORE: Diving Deeper into Eagles vs. Cowboys
