Betting
12/23/22
8 min read
NFL Week 16 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Commanders vs. 49ers
Commanders (7-6-1) at 49ers (10-4)
Opening Spread: 49ers -7.
Opening Game Total: 39.5.
Opening Team Totals: 49ers (23.25) Commanders (16.25).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as 49ers -7.
- This line has moved to 49ers -6.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the 49ers -7.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the 49ers -7.
- This total opened at 39.5 points.
- This total remains at 39.5 points.
Notable Injuries
49ers: Out: WR Deebo Samuel, DT Kevin Givens. Questionable: CB Charvarius Ward.
Commanders: Questionable: CB Benjamin St-Juste, S Kamren Curl.
The 49ers Offense vs. the Commanders Defense
San Francisco has a top-10 offensive line. The Commanders have a top-10 level defensive front, and Chase Young will be returning to action this week. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup that I’m treating as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The 49ers are 9-5 against the spread this season.
- The 49ers are 6-8 on overs this season.
- Brock Purdy is 2-0 against the spread in his career.
- Brock Purdy is 1-1 on overs in his career.
- Kyle Shanahan is 48-46-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kyle Shanahan is 47-46-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
49ers Offense
- The 49ers are scoring 24.1 points per game, good for 10th in the league.
- San Francisco is 16th in the league in yards passing per game and ninth in yards rushing.
- The 49ers are passing on 55% of their plays and running on 45% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Brock Purdy is 2-0 as the 49ers’ starting quarterback.
- Per the Edge, Christian McCaffrey is 11th in the league in yards rushing with 927. McCaffrey is second among running backs in yards receiving.
- McCaffrey has breached 100 yards rushing in each of Purdy’s two starts.
- Brandon Aiyuk has seven total targets over Purdy’s two starts.
- Jauan Jennings also has seven total targets over Purdy’s two starts.
- George Kittle has five targets in both of Purdy’s two starts. Kittle had four receptions for 93 yards receiving and two touchdowns last week against the Seahawks.
Commanders Defense
- The Commanders have allowed 19.7 points per game, which is ninth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Commanders have allowed the fifth-fewest yards rushing per game and the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Washington has given up the 12th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Commanders have allowed the fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Commanders Offense vs. 49ers Defense
Washington has a below-average offensive line that was dominated by the Giants top-10 level front last Sunday night. The 49ers have a top-five level defensive front. San Francisco’s defense has a massive trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Commanders are 7-6-1 against the spread this season.
- The Commanders are 4-10 on overs this season.
- Taylor Heinicke is 12-11-1 against the spread in his career.
- Taylor Heinicke is 8-16 on overs in his career.
- Ron Rivera is 96-85-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Ron Rivera is 91-93-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Commanders Offense
- The Commanders are scoring 18.9 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Washington is 20th in the league in yards passing per game and 11th in yards rushing.
- The Commanders are passing on 58% of their plays and running on 42% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Brian Robinson has 12 or more carries in eight of his last nine games. Robinson has 80 yards rushing or more in four of his last five games.
- Antonio Gibson has fallen below 50 yards rushing in six of his last seven games. Gibson has three or more targets in all but one game this season.
- Since Heinicke took over at quarterback in Week 7, Terry McLaurin has a 29.8% target share and a 44.1% air yards share.
- In that time frame, Curtis Samuel has a 15.1% target share and a 16.8% air yards share, and Jahan Dotson has a 13.9% target share and an 18.9% air yards share.
- Additionally, Logan Thomas has an 11.9% target share and a 10.3% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, McLaurin has played 711 snaps on the perimeter and 103 in the slot.
- Jahan Dotson has played 328 snaps on the perimeter and 135 in the slot.
- Curtis Samuel has played 164 snaps on the perimeter and 474 in the slot.
49ers Defense
- The 49ers have allowed 15 points per game, which is first in the league.
- Per The Edge, the 49ers have allowed the fewest yards rushing per game and the 21st-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- San Francisco has given up the eighth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- San Francisco has given up the sixth-most PPR points to slot receivers.
- The 49ers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Commanders vs. 49ers
The 49ers haven’t needed to make any radical changes to their offense since Purdy took over. San Francisco has an elite running back, dynamic pass catchers, a top-10 offensive line, one of the premier offensive play callers in the league, and an elite defense. As long as Purdy continues to play at this current level, the 49ers are going to be a very tough out for anyone they face. That’s what you’re betting on when you bet on the 49ers as currently constructed. San Francisco’s defense has a major trench advantage against the Commanders. If the 49ers are going to win by the full score you need for them to cover, the 49ers pass rush will play a big role in that type of outcome. Your primary concern with a 49ers bet is Purdy’s ability to continue serving as a reliable quarterback. Washington has a highly capable defense that could be a challenge for Purdy.
Washington has little margin for error if they are going to make the playoffs this season. Unfortunately for them, they face a 49ers team that is, in many ways, a better version of the Commanders from a roster construction standpoint. Washington has gone 5-2-1 since Taylor Heinicke took over, but the Commanders have only exceeded 20 points in three of those contests. If you’re betting on Washington, you shouldn’t expect a spike game out of their offense against a premium defense like San Francisco.
Washington’s clearest path to keeping this game close is through a low-scoring, defensive contest. Purdy has been better than anyone could have hoped through two-plus games, but ultimately the desperate Commanders are getting a rookie quarterback in his fourth NFL game. You have two primary concerns as a Commanders’ bettor. The first is that San Francisco’s front derails this game. The second is that Purdy continues to play at a high level while the 49ers offensive line mitigates the Commanders defensive front, which is the strength of their team.
Awards Market Ramifications: Nick Bosa is a Defensive Player of the Year favorite. Kyle Shanahan is a Coach of the Year candidate. Brock Purdy has an interesting Rookie of the Year path.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the 49ers in all of my winner pools, and I expect to be right in line with consensus on them in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will take the 49ers or pass here.
Survivor Pool: The 49ers are a solid option in survivor pools this week.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 46-24
Props 2022: 51-31
WATCH MORE: Eagles' Pass Rush Biggest Threat to 49ers' Playoff Hopes?
