Betting
12/24/22
4 min read
NFL Week 16 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions For Christmas Day Slate
The Christmas Day slate has three games, which I’ve broken down from a betting perspective. Unlike the Christmas Eve slate, weather won’t be a factor for any of these contests. Below you’ll find a summary for each game, where the links for each contest will bring you to my betting previews for that matchup. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
Green Bay Packers (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-6)
- Opening Spread: Dolphins -4.5
- Opening Game Total: 46.5
- Opening Team Totals: Dolphins (25.5) Packers (21)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Dolphins -4.5.
- This line has moved to Dolphins -3.5.
- This total opened at 46.5 points.
- This total has moved all the way up to 49.5 points.
The Bottom Line
This is an interesting cross-conference matchup between two teams that need to stack wins to make the playoffs. Miami has lost their last three games, all on the road, to the 49ers, Chargers, and Bills. In a vacuum there is no shame in losing to any of those teams, but that three-game skid has pushed Miami down to the seven-seed with important games against the Patriots and Jets on the horizon. Green Bay is going to need some help while likely having to win out to sneak into the NFC’s seventh seed.
From a betting perspective I have no considerable lean on this game against the spread, but I’m on the lookout for Raheem Mostert yards rushing overs. I expect those lines haven’t been released yet since Jeff Wilson is still on the injury report. If Wilson is a full go for this contest, I’m going to check in on his rushing overs as well, especially if they are abnormally low (in the 20’s).
Denver Broncos (4-10) at Los Angeles Rams (4-10)
- Opening Spread: Rams +1
- Opening Game Total: 35.5
- Opening Team Totals: Rams (17.25) Broncos (18.25)
- Weather: Hybrid stadium, no concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Rams +1.
- This line has moved to Rams +3.5.
- This total opened at 35.5 points.
- This total remains at 35.5.
The Bottom Line
This is a cross-conference matchup between the two lowest-scoring offenses in the league. The Rams have a bottom-tier offensive line, they are without their two best wide receivers, and Baker Mayfield signed with the team two weeks ago. Denver’s defense has a significant advantage in the trenches in this matchup, the Broncos' secondary is positioned to force tight windows throughout this contest, and two weeks ago Russell Wilson’s offense finally showed a little ceiling against the Chiefs. With Aaron Donald still sidelined for the Rams, I have taken the Broncos against the spread in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) at Arizona Cardinals (4-10)
- Opening Spread: Cardinals +4.5
- Opening Game Total: 41
- Opening Team Totals: Cardinals (18.25) Buccaneers (22.75)
- Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cardinals +4.5.
- This line has moved all the way up to Cardinals +7.5.
- This total opened at 41 points.
- This total has moved to 41.5 points.
The Bottom Line
Kyler Murray’s Cardinals vs. Tom Brady’s Buccaneers sounded like a pretty compelling matchup on opening day. Now, Murray is out and Cardinals third-string quarterback Trace McSorley is in for Arizona. The Buccaneers' injury-reduced offensive line and defense has me leaning towards staying away from this contest against the spread, but I will ultimately bet on the Bucs or pass here.
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