Opening Spread: Panthers -2.5.
Opening Game Total: 38.5.
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Panthers -2.5.
- This line remains at Panthers -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Panthers -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Panthers -2.5.
- This total opened at 38.5-points.
- This total remains at 38.5-points.
Panthers: Questionable: WR Laviska Shenault Jr., S Xavier Woods.
Steelers: Questionable: QB Kenny Pickett, WR Diontae Johnson, TE Pat Freiermuth, DL Larry Ogunjobi, LB Myles Jack.
The Panthers Offense vs. Steelers’ Defense
The Panthers’ offensive line has gotten better as the season has progressed. I now have them as a league average unit. The Steelers have a top-five defensive front. Pittsburgh has a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Panthers are 7-6 against the spread this season.
- The Panthers are 5-8 on overs this season.
- Sam Darnold is 20-30-1 against the spread in his career.
- Sam Darnold is 23-28 on overs in his career.
- Steve Wilks is 13-10-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Steve Wilks is 10-14 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Panthers are scoring 20 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- Carolina is 30th in the league in yards passing per game and 13th in yards rushing.
- Per Sports Info Solutions, the Panthers are passing on 55% of their plays and running on 45% of their plays.
- The Panthers are 2-0 under Sam Darnold, but he hasn’t breached 200 yards passing in either of those contests.
- Per the Edge, D’Onta Foreman has breached 100 yards rushing in four of his last seven games. He has at least 15 carries in five of those contests. Foreman has more than one target in two of those games.
- Chuba Hubbard has at least 14 carries and 65 yards rushing in each of his last two games.
- DJ Moore had 103 yards receiving in Darnold’s first start two weeks ago but had zero last week against the Seahawks.
- Terrace Marshall has 26 yards receiving on four targets over Darnold’s two starts.
- Laviska Shenault Jr. has caught all six of his targets for 50 yards receiving over Darnold’s two starts.
- The Steelers have allowed 22.5 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Steelers have allowed the 13th-most yards rushing per game and the 24th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Pittsburgh has given up the fifth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Pittsburgh has given up the fifth-most PPR points per game to perimeter and slot receivers.
- The Steelers have allowed the 16th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Steelers Offense vs. Panthers Defense
I have the Steelers tiered as a below average offensive line. I have the Panthers’ defensive front tiered as a league average unit. The Panthers’ defense has a moderate advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Steelers are 6-6-1 against the spread this season.
- The Steelers are 5-8 on overs this season.
- Kenny Pickett is 5-4 against the spread in his career.
- Kenny Pickett is 3-6 on overs in his career.
- Mike Tomlin is 129-120-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Tomlin is 111-140-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Steelers are scoring 17.5 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
- Pittsburgh is 25th in the league in yards passing per game and 19th in yards rushing.
- The Steelers are passing on 63% of their plays and running on 37% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Kenny Pickett is in the concussion protocol, making it likely that Mitch Trubisky starts while Mason Rudolph could see action.
- Per the Edge, after a slow start, Najee Harris has at least 80 yards rushing in three of his last five games.
- With Pickett knocked out early with a concussion, Diontae Johnson had his best output since late September last week, catching six-of-eight targets for 82 yards receiving. Johnson has a 25.9% target share with a 33.7% air yards share on the season.
- George Pickens has a 14.9% target share with a 25.9% air yards share on the season. Pickens has at least 50 yards receiving in three of his last four games.
- Pat Freiermuth’s 20% target share is fifth among all tight ends and his 19.2% air yards share is sixth at the position.
- Per TruMedia, Diontae Johnson leads the league in perimeter snaps with 667. Johnson has played 97 snaps in the slot.
- George Pickens has played 541 snaps on the perimeter and 104 in the slot.
- The Panthers have allowed 22.3 points per game, which is 13th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Panthers have allowed the ninth-most yards rushing per game and the 26th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Carolina has given up the 14th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Carolina has given up the fifth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Panthers have allowed the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Panthers vs. Steelers
Interim head coach Steve Wilks should probably be in the Coach of the Year conversation considering that the Panthers are still alive in the NFC South race. Winners of three of their last four, Carolina has become a run-centric offense that’s played very strong defense since Wilks took over. In fact, the Panthers have allowed 15 or fewer points in four of Wilks’s seven games.
If you’re betting on the Panthers, you are betting on their defense having another strong outing against the Steelers. Carolina’s defense will have a moderate line play advantage in this contest, and they’ll likely face Mitch Trubisky, who is coming off a three-interception game against the Ravens. Carolina’s offense is what concerns you as a Panthers bettor. Sam Darnold hasn’t breached 200 yards passing in either of his two starts, and Carolina’s run-centric attack will be facing a high-quality Steelers defensive front.
The Steelers have been playing well in recent weeks, going 3-2 since their Week 9 bye. Those two losses came in one-score games to the Bengals and Ravens. Pittsburgh lost by seven to Cincinnati in a shootout that breached 60 total points, while narrowly losing to Baltimore last week 16-14.
If you’re betting on Pittsburgh, you’re betting on a defensive-minded contest similar to last week’s matchup with Baltimore. Betting on the Steelers’ defense in this spot is a very reasonable stance. Your primary concern as a Steelers bettor is that Trubisky is coming off a three-interception performance and likely starts this week. Both offenses are volatile, especially if either of them has to play from behind, but this is truly a game where one turnover could decide the outcome.
Whichever side you decide to play in this game, both teams have very similar paths to success in this matchup.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m treating this game as a true coin flip in winner pools, where I’ll have exposure to both teams. I will be ranking this game as low as I reasonably can in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will take the Steelers or pass here. I would have already bet Pittsburgh if Pickett was playing. The Steelers’ offense has a much higher ceiling with Pickett.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29
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