Analysis
12/18/22
8 min read
NFL Week 15 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Rams vs. Packers
Monday Night Football
Rams (4-9) at Packers (5-8)
Opening Spread: Packers -7.5.
Opening Game Total: 40.
Opening Team Totals: Packers (23.75) Rams (16.25).
Weather: Outdoors, single-digit temperatures possible.
Line Report
- This line opened as Packers -7.5.
- This line has moved to Packers -6.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Packers -6.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Packers -7.
- This total opened at 40-points.
- This total has moved to 39.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Packers: Out: LT David Bakhtiari.
Rams: Out: DL Aaron Donald. Questionable: C Brian Allen
Packers Offense vs. Rams Defense
Without left tackle David Bakhtiari, I have the Packers' offensive line as a league-average unit. Without Aaron Donald, I have the Rams' defensive front as a below-average to bottom-tier group. Green Bay’s offensive line has a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Packers are 5-8 against the spread this season.
- Green Bay is 7-6 on overs this season.
- Aaron Rodgers is 124-91-4 against the spread in his career.
- Rodgers is 114-104-1 on overs in his career.
- Matt LaFleur is 37-25 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- LaFleur is 30-32 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Packers Offense
- Green Bay is scoring 20.2 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- The Packers are 18th in the league in yards passing per game and 12th in yards rushing.
- The Packers are passing on 60% of their plays and running on 40% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Aaron Jones is 12th in the league in yards rushing with 847. Jones is eighth among running backs in yards receiving, per The Edge.
- A.J. Dillon is coming off his best game of the season where he ran for 93 yards and a score against the Bears before Green Bay’s bye. Dillon has at least 60 yards rushing in three of his last four games.
- During his last four games, Christian Watson has breached 100 yards receiving twice with eight total touchdowns during that stretch. Watson has six or more targets in each of those contests.
- Allen Lazard has a 21.1% target share and a 31.1% air yards share.
- Romeo Doubs is off the injury report after missing a month. Doubs has a 15.9% target share with a 20.2% air yards share this season.
- Robert Tonyan hasn’t exceeded 20 yards receiving in any of his last four games.
- Lazard has played 354 snaps on the perimeter and 211 in the slot, per TruMedia.
- Watson has played 212 snaps on the perimeter and 105 in the slot.
- Doubs has played 314 snaps on the perimeter and 81 in the slot.
Rams Defense
- Los Angeles has allowed 22.8 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- The Rams have allowed the 23rd-most yards rushing and the 12th-most yards receiving per game to running backs, per The Edge.
- Los Angeles has given up the 12th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers.
- The Rams have given up the second-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- Los Angeles has allowed the 21st-most yards receiving per game to tight ends.
Rams Offense vs. Packers Defense
The Rams have a bottom-tier offensive line. Green Bay’s injury-impacted defensive front is in the average to below-average range. The Packers’ defense has a moderate advantage in the trenches this week.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Rams are 4-8-1 against the spread this season.
- Los Angeles is 9-4 on overs this season.
- Baker Mayfield is 25-39-1 against the spread in his career.
- Mayfield is 32-32-1 on overs in his career.
- Sean McVay is 47-44-3 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- McVay is 44-49-1 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Rams Offense
- Los Angeles is scoring 16.8 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- The Rams are 24th in the league in yards passing per game and 30th in yards rushing.
- Los Angeles is passing on 64% of their plays and running on 36% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Mayfield is the Rams quarterback after his improbable comeback victory last week.
- Cam Akers has 12 or more carries in three of his last four games. Akers has two total targets during that span, per The Edge.
- After an 11-carry game three weeks ago, Kyren Williams has three carries in each of the Rams' last two games.
- Van Jefferson has a 13.3% target share and a 25.6% air yards share. Jefferson had a huge catch last week against the Raiders, but he has yet to breach 50 yards receiving in any of his six games this season.
- Ben Skowronek has a 13.7% target share and a 14.6% air yards share. Skowronek is coming off his best game of the season, catching seven-of-eight targets for 89 yards receiving against the Raiders.
- Tutu Atwell has 14 targets during his last two games. The Rams spent a second-round pick on Atwell last season, so it makes sense for Los Angeles to see what they have in him down the stretch.
- Tyler Higbee has an 18.9% target share on the season, but his usage has become sporadic since mid-October.
Packers Defense
- Green Bay is allowing 23.2 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- The Packers have allowed the third-most yards rushing and the 21st-most yards receiving per game to running backs, per The Edge.
- Green Bay has given up the 27th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Packers have allowed the second-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
What You’re Betting On
This is an interesting spot for Green Bay, who is coming off their much-needed bye. They have underwhelmed across the board this season, but if they win out they have a shot to get into the playoff picture. The Packers have scored 28 or more points in three of their last four games, which has coincided with Watson getting healthy. Rodgers still possesses his wizard-like play-making ability, the Packers have a rock-solid offensive line, one of the best running back duos in the league and Watson gives Rodgers at least one difference-making pass catcher.
I give Mayfield all the credit in the world for joining a new team on a short week and bringing them back late for an improbable win. That said, do not overreact to that outcome.
If You're a Packers Bettor ...
If you’re betting on Green Bay, you are betting on the Packers' offense continuing to trend up against a Rams defense that will be without Donald. I’d argue the Packers' defense has been just as disappointing as the offense. Green Bay’s pass defense has been good, but their run defense has been among the worst in the league. You are betting on the Packers' defense holding the Rams below their 16.25 team total. A 24-16 type of game is a cover for Packers bettors. Your primary concern as a Packers' bettor is Green Bay’s offense continues to falter behind mediocre play calling and Rodgers’ below-average supporting cast, while the Packers' defense still struggles to stop the run.
If You're a Rams Bettor ...
The Rams have a bottom-tier offensive line, one of the worst collections of pass catchers in the league with Cooper Kupp sidelined and a thin running back room. Mayfield has an uphill battle against a Packers defense with enough talent to dominate this game. It’s hard to get excited about the Rams' defense without Donald. Rodgers’ offense might lack the firepower to blow the doors off Los Angeles in this contest, but it would be no surprise if Green Bay at least met expectations on offense. Aside from Sean McVay providing his team with more of a strategic advantage than Matt LaFleur, a bet on the Rams is more of a bet against Green Bay than a bet on Los Angeles.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Packers across the board in winner pools. I expect to be a little higher than consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will take Green Bay or pass. My only real concern on that stance is six and a half points is a lot for this unreliable Packers team to give.
Survivor Pool: Green Bay is a solid option in survivor pools this week. I’d be comfortable taking them if I still had them available.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29
