Opening Spread: Raiders -1.
Opening Game Total: 44.5.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Raiders -1.
- This line has moved to Raiders -1.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Raiders +.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Raiders as a pick’em.
- This total opened at 44.5-points.
- This total remains at 44.5-points.
Raiders: Out: RG Alex Bars, CB Rock Ya-Sin. Questionable: RB Josh Jacobs, RT Jermaine Eluemunor, DT Andrew Billings, LB Denzel Perryman.
The Raiders Offense vs. Patriots Defense
I have the Raiders tiered as a below-average offensive line. I have the Patriots’ defensive front as a league-average unit but one of the better ones despite that grouping. The Patriots’ defensive front has a moderate to significant trench advantage against the Raiders. Their premium edge Matthew Judon has a significant individual matchup advantage against the Raiders’ offensive front.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Raiders are 6-7 against the spread this season.
- The Raiders are 6-6-1 on overs this season.
- Derek Carr is 67-71-2 against the spread in his career.
- Derek Carr is 72-63-5 on overs in his career.
- Josh McDaniels is 19-22 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Josh McDaniels is 20-20-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Raiders are scoring 23.7 points per game, good for 11th in the league.
- Las Vegas is 12th in the league in yards passing per game and tenth in yards rushing.
- The Raiders are passing on 62% of their plays and running on 38% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Josh Jacobs leads the league in yards rushing with 1402 and he’s tied for third in rushing touchdowns with 11. Jacobs is seventh among running backs in yards receiving.
- Jacobs’ workload has been massive in recent weeks, as he has 21 or more carries in each of his last five games. Jacobs has 134 carries and 23 targets over that span.
- Davante Adams is fourth in the league in receptions (82), third in yards receiving (1247), tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns (12), first in target share (33.1%), and third in air yards share (44.3%).
- Adams has double-digit targets in five of his last six games.
- Since Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow have been sidelined, Jacobs and Adams have essentially been the Raiders’ offense.
- Mack Hollins has at least four targets in each of his last seven games. Hollins has breached 50 yards receiving three times during that span, with a high of 64 yards receiving during those three games.
- Foster Moreau has just five receptions over his last four games.
- The Patriots have allowed 18.4 points per game, which ranks fifth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Patriots have allowed the 27th-most yards rushing per game and the 16th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New England has given up the 21st-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Patriots have allowed the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Patriots Offense vs. Raiders Defense
I have the Patriots’ offensive line tiered as a league-average unit but toward the front of that group. I have the Raiders’ defensive front tiered as a below-average group. From a macro sense, the Patriots’ offensive line has a moderate advantage in this contest. That said, Raiders premium edge Maxx Crosby has a significant individual advantage coming off the outside.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Patriots are 7-5-1 against the spread this season.
- The Patriots are 5-8 on overs this season.
- Mac Jones is 14-12-1 against the spread in his career.
- Mac Jones is 12-15 on overs in his career.
- Bill Belichick is 209-145-12 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Bill Belichick is 185-175-5 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- The Patriots are scoring 21.2 points per game, which ranks 18th in the league.
- New England is 20th in the league in yards passing per game and 23rd in yards rushing.
- Per Sports Info Solutions, the Patriots are passing on 60% of their plays and running on 40% of their plays.
- Damien Harris has been officially ruled out, while Rhamondre Stevenson is trending more towards limited if not out than a full go. If Stevenson also sits, Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris take over New England’s backfield. Even if Stevenson plays we should expect some role expansion for both Strong and Harris.
- Per the Edge, Jakobi Meyers is trending towards a return to action this week. Meyers has a 21.9% target share and a 31.8% air yards share this season.
- Nelson Agholor has a 12.7% target share and an 18.6% air yards share.
- With Jakobi Meyers sidelined and DeVante Parker leaving early, both Kendrick Bourne and Tyquan Thornton saw five targets a piece last week. Thornton hasn’t seen five targets since late October and Bourne hasn’t seen five targets since late September.
- Hunter Henry has a 10.9% target share with a 13.2% air yards share this season. Henry’s week-to-week target share has been very up and down all season.
- Jonnu Smith has an 8.5% target share and a 3.5% air yards share.
- The Raiders have allowed 24.1 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 18th-most yards rushing per game and the most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Las Vegas has given up the ninth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Raiders have allowed the 13th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Raiders have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the sixth-most to those lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Raiders vs. Patriots
Bill Belichick is 18-19 against his former assistant coaches and players. Since 2018 though, he is 6-10 against his former coaches and players. Belichick is a very opponent-specific game planner, that consistently gets more out of his roster than most have in the history of the game. I’d speculate that Belichick has had less success against his former assistants and players than the rest of the league because they each have unique insights into how Belichick operates.
If you’re betting on the Patriots, you are still building that bet around Belichick’s opponent-specific game planning. The Patriots’ pass rush could be a real problem for Vegas, and New England has one of the better run defenses in football. The Raiders’ offense is completely centered around running back Josh Jacobs and wide receiver Davante Adams. Belichick is famous for making opponents play “left-handed,” and no team is narrowing opportunities more than the Raiders have over the last month. Mac Jones is in a good position this week against a Raiders secondary that has been shredded throughout the season.
New England’s running back room will be greatly reduced this week, which means that if you are betting on New England you are primarily betting on Jones driving New England’s offense. Your biggest concern as a Patriots bettor is that Jones doesn’t meet expectations. Josh McDaniels was Mac Jones’ play-caller last season, so he has insights into what Jones does and doesn’t do well. That should give the Raiders’ defense a couple of advantages in this contest. Your second biggest concern is that Davante Adams continues to put up monster numbers despite being the focal point of New England’s defensive game plan.
A bet on the Raiders is a bet on a few specific factors. The first is Josh McDaniels’ ability to anticipate what Bill Belichick will try to accomplish from a game-planning standpoint. While few in the league are as familiar with Belichick as McDaniels, no one is more familiar with McDaniels than Belichick one could argue. The Raiders have to manage a number of matchup disadvantages, however. The Raiders have been very reliant on Josh Jacobs in recent weeks, but New England has a very assignment-sound run defense. The Patriots’ defensive front has a trench advantage in this matchup as well.
That type of edge can be mitigated through play calling, which is another factor that is largely on McDaniels. Mac Jones has struggled throughout his sophomore season, but he showed considerable ceiling against the Vikings on Thanksgiving night. You could parallel the Raiders’ defense to Minnesota’s in a number of ways. In fact, I’d say that Minnesota has a considerably better roster on defense. Vegas has a lot of concerns in this matchup, against a Patriots team that would make the playoffs if the season ended today. Apart from the McDaniels vs. Belichick component, we can all reasonably expect the Raiders to be highly motivated coming off their brutal last-second loss to the Rams last week.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will treat this game as a true coin flip in both winner and confidence pools this week.
Spread Pool: I like the Patriots from a football sense, and I like the Raiders from a sports bettor’s slant. I tend to avoid these kinds of conundrums against the spread.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29