Opening Spread: Jets -1.
Opening Game Total: 44.5.
Opening Team Totals: Jets (22.75), Lions (21.75).
Weather: Outdoors, mild wind.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jets -1.
- This line moved up to Jets -2.5 and back down to Jets -.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Jets -.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jets as a pick’em.
- This total opened at 44.5 points.
- This total has moved to 44.5 points.
Jets: Out: QB Mike White, WR Corey Davis. Questionable: DT Quinnen Williams.
Lions: Out: LB Derrick Barnes. Questionable: C Frank Ragnow, Edge Aidan Hutchinson.
Jets Offense vs. Lions Defense
The Jets have done a remarkable job managing their litany of injuries along their offensive line this year. Despite being down two of their best offensive linemen, I still have the Jets ranked in the average to slightly below average tier. The Lions defensive front has improved as the season has progressed. I currently have them tiered as a slightly below-average group. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jets are 8-5 against the spread this season.
- The Jets are 5-8 on overs this season.
- Zach Wilson is 10-10 against the spread in his career.
- Zach Wilson is 9-11 on overs in his career.
- Robert Saleh is 14-16 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Robert Saleh is 15-15 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Jets are scoring 20.3 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- New York is 15th in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing.
- The Jets are passing on 64% of their plays and running on 36% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Mike White has been ruled out for this contest. Zach Wilson is getting the start at quarterback for the Jets.
- Under both Mike White and Joe Flacco this season, the Jets have been a pass-centric offense. With Wilson under center, the Jets lean far more on the run in games when they have the lead. Wilson’s passing volume has only significantly increased when the Jets have played in negative game scripts.
- Per the Edge, Zonovan Knight has at least 14 carries and 69 yards rushing in his last three games. Knight has ten targets over that span. Knight came out of nowhere to be the Jets’ primary ball carrier.
- Over his last two games, Michael Carter has 11 total carries and eight targets.
- Garrett Wilson has been a genuine WR1 since Mike White took over against the Bears three weeks ago. Wilson’s usage and production were far more volatile with Zach Wilson under center. In the seven games that Zach Wilson started, Garrett Wilson breached 90 yards receiving twice. Those were the only times Wilson breached 50 yards receiving during that span.
- Elijah Moore’s usage and production were ascending with Mike White at quarterback. Moore has just six receptions in games that Zach Wilson has played this year. Moore requested a trade during that period.
- With Corey Davis sidelined, expect some role expansion for Denzel Mims and Braxton Berrios.
- Under Joe Flacco and Mike White, Tyler Conklin saw elite usage for a tight end. In the seven games Conklin played with Zach Wilson, he breached 25 yards receiving twice.
- Per TruMedia, Garrett Wilson has played 375 snaps on the perimeter and 242 in the slot.
- Elijah Moore has played 324 snaps on the perimeter and 202 in the slot.
- Braxton Berrios has played 83 snaps on the perimeter and 155 in the slot.
- Tyler Conklin has played 436 snaps as an inline tight end, 51 on the perimeter and 156 in the slot.
- The Lions have allowed 26.7 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Lions have allowed the 16th-most yards rushing per game and the second-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Detroit has given up the second-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Detroit has given up the most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Lions have allowed the eighth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Lions have allowed the most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
Lions Offense vs. Jets Defense
I have the Lions ranked as a top-five offensive line. That said, stud center Frank Ragnow is on the injury report. While Detroit’s line has still been rock solid without Ragnow at times this season, they are facing a top-five caliber Jets defensive front. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup, where neither side has a notable advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Lions are 9-4 against the spread this season.
- The Lions are 9-4 on overs this season.
- Jared Goff is 52-42-2 against the spread in his career.
- Jared Goff is 48-48 on overs in his career.
- Dan Campbell is 24-18 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Dan Campbell is 21-21 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Lions are scoring 26.8 points per game, which is fifth in the league.
- Detroit is ninth in the league in yards passing per game and 11th in yards rushing.
- Per Sports Info Solutions, the Lions are passing on 58% of their plays and running on 42% of plays.
- Per the Edge, Jamaal Williams is 14th in the league in yards rushing with 806, and he’s the leader in rushing touchdowns with 14. Williams has at least ten carries in every game he’s played this season, but he’s averaging less than four yards per carry in each of his last six games.
- D’Andre Swift has only breached double-digit carries once in his last three games, but he has 18 total targets over that span.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown is fifth in the league in receptions (82), tenth in yards receiving (898), tied for 11th in receiving touchdowns (6), he’s ninth in target share (28.3%), and has a 24.3% air yards share.
- DJ Chark has at least five targets in his last three games, and he’s breached 90 yards receiving in both of his previous two. Chark has a 15.3% target share with a 34.3% air yards share on the season.
- Jameson Williams has only played 21 snaps and ran eight routes over the two games he’s played this season. However, Williams caught one-of-two targets last week against the Vikings for a 41-yard touchdown. Expect Williams to continue to be eased into action this week, but the No. 12 overall pick already looks like a difference-maker.
- Brock Wright, Shane Zylstra, and James Mitchell make up one of the league’s most underwhelming tight end rooms.
- The Jets have allowed 18.7 points per game, which is sixth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 21st-most yards rushing per game and the 13th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the second-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jets have allowed the 14th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Lions vs. Jets
The Jets have an elite defense, one of the best collections of young skill position players in the league, and a pretty good offensive line when everyone is healthy. This game is a big one for the Jets as they try to gain ground in the AFC playoff picture, but this is an equally big game for Zach Wilson and the Jets’ future. New York is a quarterback away from being a title contender. If Zach Wilson plays well in a winning effort in this contest, he could completely shift his career trajectory overnight.
The Lions defense has been playing much better of late, but Wilson draws a pretty good opponent to show everyone what he’s got. Offensively, the Jets have the talent to have a big game, but it all ultimately boils down to Wilson. The Jets are my kind of defense: fast, physical, and disruptive. There are only a handful of defenses in the league that I could comfortably say that about.
If you’re betting on the Jets, you are building that bet around the Jets defense. Jared Goff is a good quarterback, but he’s very pressure sensitive. New York’s pass rush faces one of the best offensive lines in the league. Still, if they can make Goff uncomfortable, Detroit will struggle on offense, especially considering how fast the Jets secondary closes. Your biggest concern as a Jets bettor is Zach Wilson’s ability to play well in a very high-pressure spot. Your second is that Detroit’s offensive line drives a solid outing from the Lions offense.
The Lions are a surging team, winning five of their last six while giving the Bills all they could handle in their only loss during that span. Detroit’s offense has been excellent, scoring over 30 points in four of their last five games. If you’re betting on Detroit, you aren’t expecting a 30-point game out of the Lions offense, but you are expecting them to play a clean, solid game against a high-end Jets defense.
Detroit’s defense was a liability early in the season, but the Lions have held opponents below 20 points three times during these last six games. With Zach Wilson back at quarterback for the Jets, you could realistically bet on the Lions holding the Jets to 20 or fewer points. Your biggest concern as a Lions bettor is that the Jets high-end front is disruptive enough to make Jared Goff uncomfortable early while Zach Wilson’s offense at least meets expectations. I’ve been higher than consensus on Goff all year, but this is a very tough spot for him.
Lions vs. Jets Pool Picks and Other Bets
Awards Market Ramifications: Sauce Gardner and Aidan Hutchinson are the two primary Defensive Rookie of the Year contenders. Robert Saleh and Dan Campbell are Coach of the Year contenders. Garrett Wilson is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender. Quinnen Williams is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Jared Goff is an emerging Comeback Player of the Year longshot.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: This is a true coin flip game where I will have roughly even exposure to both teams in winner pools. The Jets will be less popular in more casual winner pools. I’m going to treat this game as a true coinflip in my confidence pool rankings, where I’ll have this game as close to the bottom as I can.
Spread Pool: I liked the Jets earlier in the week, but the move from Mike White to Zach Wilson removes a few paths to victory for New York. I still lean toward the Jets, but I’m much less enthusiastic about that side now.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29
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