Miami Dolphins (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (10-3)
Opening Spread: Bills -7.5
Opening Game Total: 43
Opening Team Totals: Bills (25.25) Dolphins (17.75)
Weather: Outdoors, high chance of snow
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bills -7.5.
- This line is down to Bills -6.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bills -7.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bills -7.
- This total opened at 43 points.
- This total has moved to 42.5 points.
Bills: Out: Edge AJ Epenesa; Questionable: RG Ryan Bates, DT Ed Oliver, LB Matt Milano
Dolphins: Questionable: RB Jeff Wilson, TE Durham Smythe, LT Terron Armstead, S Eric Rowe
The Bills Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
I have the Bills tiered as an average offensive line. I have the Dolphins’ defensive front tiered as a fringe top-ten group since the addition of Bradley Chubb. Miami’s defense has a slight advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bills are 6-7 against the spread this season.
- The Bills are 3-10 on overs this season.
- Josh Allen is 41-28-4 against the spread in his career.
- Josh Allen is 29-42-2 on overs in his career.
- Sean McDermott is 51-38-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Sean McDermott is 40-52-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Bills are scoring 27.2 points per game, good for fourth in the league.
- Buffalo is sixth in the league in yards passing per game and eighth in yards rushing.
- The Bills are passing on 66% of their plays and running on 34% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Josh Allen is fourth among quarterbacks in yards rushing with 628.
- James Cook took a lead in opportunities over Devin Singletary against the Patriots in Week 13. In Week 14 against the Jets, Singletary had eight carries and two targets while Cook had four carries and one target.
- Consider the Bills’ backfield a volatile committee with the expectation that running back opportunities can fluctuate week-to-week.
- Stefon Diggs is third in the league in receptions (94), fourth in yards receiving (1,239), third in receiving touchdowns (10), eighth in target share (28.7%) and 14th in air yards share (36.9%).
- Gabe Davis has breached 50 yards receiving in five of his 12 games while only breaching 90 yards receiving twice this season.
- Isaiah McKenzie has at least five targets in each of his last three games.
- Dawson Knox has breached 50 yards receiving in just two of his 12 games this season.
- The Dolphins have allowed 24 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Dolphins have allowed the fourth-fewest yards rushing per game and the sixth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Miami has given up the 13th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Dolphins have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the eighth most to those in the slot.
The Dolphins Offense vs. Bills Defense
If Dolphins left tackle Terron Armstead is in, I have the Dolphins’ offensive line tiered as a league-average unit. If Armstead misses this contest, I’ll move the Dolphins’ offensive line into the average but closer to below average tier. At full strength the Bills have a top-ten, bordering on top-five, defensive front. In their current state with Von Miller sidelined and a few other players either on the injury report or out, I have Buffalo’s defensive front tiered as a league-average unit. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Dolphins are 6-7 against the spread this season.
- The Dolphins are 6-7 on overs this season.
- Tua Tagovailoa is 18-13-1 against the spread in his career.
- Tua Tagovailoa is 14-18 on overs in his career.
- Mike McDaniel is 6-7 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike McDaniel is 6-7 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Dolphins are scoring 24.3 points per game, which is ninth in the league.
- Miami is second in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing.
- The Dolphins are passing on 66% of their plays and running on 34% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Jeff Wilson left last week’s contest against the Chargers early, but it appears that he and Raheem Mostert continue to be in a “ride the hot hand” type of split.
- Per the Edge, Tyreek Hill leads the league in receptions (100), he’s second in yards receiving (1,460), tied for 11th in touchdown receptions (6), second in target share (31.7%), and eighth in air yards share (41.2%).
- Jaylen Waddle has 59 receptions for 1,003 yards receiving and six touchdown receptions. Waddle has a 21.2% target share and a 27.9% air yards share.
- Mike Gesicki hasn’t caught a pass in three games.
- The Bills have allowed 17 points per game, which is second in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bills have allowed the 26th-most yards rushing per game and the 19th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Buffalo has given up the 11th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bills have allowed the 26th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Bills vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins beat the Bills 21-19 in Miami back in Week 3. This was one of those subtly spectacular games by Josh Allen, as he made a handful of remarkable tight window throws that kept his team in this game. Weather is expected to be enough of a factor for this coming matchup between two top ten offenses that the game total is 43 points. Be on the lookout for significant snow and/or wind in this matchup.
If you’re betting on the Bills, you are always building that bet on Josh Allen’s ability to carry his offense. I’ve been calling Allen’s supporting cast on offense a very average group outside of Stefon Diggs since August. That stance is far more widely accepted now than it was at the start of the season. Bills running backs saw 17 targets the last time these two teams met, which I mention because it was a bit of an anomaly. If you’re betting on the Bills you’ve already seen Josh Allen play well against Miami, but he could use some more help against a team Buffalo has already lost to this season. The Bills are still giving up the second-fewest points in the league despite losing several difference-makers throughout the season. Buffalo’s high-end pass rush and secondary have both been reduced by injuries. Those groups will be challenged by a uniquely capable Bills defense. Your biggest concern as a Bills bettor is that Buffalo struggles against Miami again offensively while Tua Tagovailoa’s offense bounces back some after a middling performance against the Chargers last week.
If you’re betting on Miami you are betting on the Dolphins’ struggling offense in a contest that will likely see some level of snow. Light snow might actually help speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, as it’s difficult enough to stay with these guys when there isn’t a slick surface. Heavy snow that sticks would be more of a negative for Miami, as that environment would start to slow everyone down. If this contest ends up with significant wind, that’s an advantage for Buffalo. The Dolphins’ defense is better now than it was when these teams met earlier in this season. Buffalo has been held to 24 points or less in each of its last two games, both against AFC East rivals. If you’re betting on the Dolphins, you’re looking for a similar defensive effort out of Miami. If you’re betting on the Dolphins your biggest concern is that Buffalo forces Tua Tagovailoa to beat them on the outside, and that he struggles to do so. Last week when the Chargers deployed this type of macro gameplan, Miami didn’t adjust. The Dolphins should be more prepared for that going forward.
Awards Market Ramifications: Josh Allen is a fading MVP candidate. Mike McDaniel is a fading Coach of the Year candidate. Tyreek Hill is an Offensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I’ll be Bills-heavy in winner pools. I might be a little under consensus on this contest in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I will take Miami as a significant underdog or pass on this contest.
Survivor Pool: I would avoid this contest in survivor pools if I could.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29