Opening Spread: Texans +14.
Opening Game Total: 49.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Texans +14.
- This line has moved to Texans +13.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Texans +13.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Texans +14.
- This total opened at 49-points.
- This total has moved to 49.5-points.
Chiefs: Questionable: WR Kadarius Toney.
The Texans Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
Houston has a talented but underachieving offensive line. I have them tiered as a slightly below average group. I have the Chiefs’ defensive front as a fringe top-10 group. Kansas City has a mild advantage in the trenches, though premium defensive tackle Chris Jones has a significant individual advantage in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Texans are 5-7-1 against the spread this season.
- The Texans are 5-8 on overs this season.
- Davis Mills is 10-11-1 against the spread in his career.
- Davis Mills is 11-11 on overs in his career.
- Lovie Smith is 87-93-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Lovie Smith is 87-99-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Texans are scoring 16.2 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- Houston is 26th in the league in yards passing per game and 28th in yards rushing.
- Per Sports Info Solutions, the Texans are passing on 64% of their plays and running on 36% of plays.
- The Texans switched back to Davis Mills at quarterback last week, while Jeff Driskel threw six passes and had seven carries.
- With Pierce likely out, expect Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale to split running back opportunities. Both Burkhead and Ogunbowale are good pass catchers, so it will be interesting to see who takes on the bulk of the carries in this contest (I’d bet on Burkhead).
- Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins are the two top options in Houston’s passing attack. Both missed last week’s contest, and both remain on this week’s injury report.
- Three tight ends have seen significant playing time for Houston this season, but Jordan Akins has been trending up for several weeks.
- Per the Edge, Chris Moore is coming off a big spike game where he caught 10-of-11 targets for 124 yards receiving against the Cowboys last week.
- Per TruMedia, Chris Moore has played 111 snaps on the perimeter and 307 in the slot.
- The Chiefs have allowed 22.9 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chiefs have allowed the 24th-most yards rushing per game and the second-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Kansas City has given up the eighth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Kansas City has given up the third-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Chiefs have allowed the 19th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Chiefs Offense vs. Texans Defense
I have the Chiefs’ offensive line tiered as a top-10 group. I have the Texans’ defensive front ranked as a bottom-tier group. The Chiefs’ offensive line has a significant advantage in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chiefs are 5-8 against the spread this season.
- The Chiefs are 6-7 on overs this season.
- Patrick Mahomes is 39-35-2 against the spread in his career.
- Patrick Mahomes is 40-35-1 on overs in his career.
- Andy Reid is 195-164-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Andy Reid is 179-176-11 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- The Chiefs are scoring 29.5 points per game, which is second in the league.
- Kansas City is first in the league in yards passing per game and 18th in yards rushing.
- The Chiefs are passing on 68% of their plays and running on 32% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Patrick Mahomes is the league leader in yards passing and passing touchdowns.
- Over his last five games, Isiah Pacheco has at least 13 carries and 66 yards rushing. Pacheco has been the Chiefs’ primary ball carrier during that span, but he’s also had five total targets over the last two weeks. Pacheco only has nine total targets this season.
- Ignore Jerick McKinnon’s massive box score last week, as half of it came on one freak play. Now, what makes McKinnon interesting is that he’s had six or more targets in four of his last six games and he’s seeing significant redzone work.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has an 18% target share and an 18.7% air yards share.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a 12.7% target share and a 23.8% air yards share.
- Travis Kelce is sixth in the league in receptions (81), fifth in yards receiving (1039), and tied for the league in receiving touchdowns (12). Kelce is third among tight ends in target share (24.5%) and air yards share (24%).
- The Texans have allowed 24.2 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Texans have allowed the most yards rushing per game and the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Houston has given up the 20th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Texans have allowed the 15th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Texans vs. Chiefs
After a month’s worth of uninspiring football, the Texans gave the Cowboys quite a scare last week in Dallas. The Texans ultimately lost that game 27-23, but Houston played with a lead for much of that contest. The Texans don’t quite need to put forth that kind of effort to cover against the Chiefs this week, but a similar performance out of their offense is their most realistic path to that outcome. If Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins suit up, that’s a major positive if you’re a Houston bettor, especially with rookie running back Dameon Pierce likely out for this game. Houston will go into this matchup more reliant on their passing game than in any other contest they’ve played this year. A 31-20 or 37-24 final is a cover for Texans bettors. The offense can land in that range if they play well. The Texans’ defense, on the other hand, is your primary concern as a Texans bettor. A few weeks ago, the Texans gave up 30 points to Miami in the first half. If you’re a Texans bettor, you have to be concerned about a similar output from Kansas City here.
A bet on the Chiefs is always a bet on Mahomes and Andy Reid’s offense. I’ve said throughout this season that I think Mahomes is having his best year. This is a little thin, but if you’re a Chiefs bettor Mahomes is probably aware that he’s fallen behind Jalen Hurts in the MVP race, and he’s probably not very happy about that. Mahomes is getting one of the worst defenses in the league, in a late-season indoor game. A monster 42-point type of output from the Chiefs wouldn’t really surprise me in this matchup. You at least need Kansas City to meet their 31.5 team total if you’re betting on the Chiefs as two-score road favorites. The Chiefs have a good, but not quite great defense. I wouldn’t say that I’m concerned about that group in this matchup, but if the Chiefs jump out to an early lead and cruise through most of this contest, a backdoor cover is my biggest concern as a Chiefs bettor.
Awards Market Ramifications: Mahomes is an MVP contender. Kelce is a fading Offensive Player of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Chiefs in all of my winner pools, and I’ll be right in line with the consensus on them in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: When picking every game, I’ll take the Chiefs if Brandin Cooks sits. If he plays, I’ll be a little more undecided, but I’d still lean toward the Chiefs side after Houston played up last week.
Survivor Pool: There are no sure things in survivor pools, but the Chiefs this week are just about as close as you’re going to get in that format.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29