Betting
12/9/22
8 min read
NFL Week 14 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Texans vs. Cowboys
Houston Texans (1-10-1) at Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
Opening Spread: Cowboys -17.
Opening Game Total: 45.
Opening Team Totals: Cowboys (31) Texans (14).
Weather: Indoors.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cowboys -17.
- This line has moved to Cowboys -16.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Cowboys -16.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Cowboys -17.5.
- This total opened at 45 points.
- This total has moved to 44.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Cowboys: Questionable: Edge DeMarcus Lawrence, S Jayron Kearse.
Texans: Out: WR Brandin Cooks. Questionable: WR Nico Collins, CB Derek Stingley Jr., PK Ka’imi Fairbairn.
The Cowboys Offense vs. Texans Defense
Dallas has a top-ten offensive line. The Texans have a bottom tier defensive front. The Cowboys offensive line has a major advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cowboys are 8-4 against the spread this season.
- The Cowboys are 6-6 on overs this season.
- Dak Prescott is 52-37-3 against the spread in his career.
- Dak Prescott is 45-47 on overs in his career.
- Mike McCarthy is 138-106-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike McCarthy is 136-111-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Cowboys Offense
- The Cowboys are scoring 27.8 points per game, good for third in the league.
- Dallas is 24th in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing.
- The Cowboys are passing on 54% of their plays and running on 46% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Since Dak Prescott returned to action against the Lions in Week 7, Dallas has scored 24 or more points in each of those six games.
- Dallas has scored 40 or more points in three of their last five games.
- Per the Edge, Tony Pollard is tenth in the league in yards rushing with 852. Pollard is 12th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Pollard has double-digit carries in each of his last seven games. He has 80 or more yards rushing in five of his last six games. Pollard has six targets in two of his last four games.
- Ezekiel Elliot has 15-to-17 carries in each of the last three games since returning to action in Week 11 against the Vikings. Elliot has five targets over that span.
- CeeDee Lamb is ninth in the league in receptions (69), ninth in yards receiving (928), tied for ninth in receiving touchdowns (6), fourth in target share (30.7%), and ninth in air yards share (39.8%).
- Michael Gallup has seven or more targets in three of his last four games. Gallup has breached 50 yards receiving once this season, with a single-game high of 63 yards receiving this season.
- Dalton Schultz has at least four targets in each of the seven games that Dak Prescott has played this season, while averaging 6.29 targets per game in these contests.
Texans Defense
- The Texans have allowed 23.9 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Texans have allowed the most yards rushing per game and the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Houston has given up the 18th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Texans have allowed the 20th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Texans Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
I have the Texans tiered as a slightly below average offensive line that’s been underachieving for weeks. I have the Cowboys defensive front tiered as a top five unit. The Cowboys defensive front has a major advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Texans are 4-7-1 against the spread this season.
- The Texans are 4-8 on overs this season.
- Davis Mills is 10-12-1 against the spread in his career.
- Davis Mills is 11-12 on overs in his career.
- Lovie Smith is 86-93-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Lovie Smith is 86-99-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Texans Offense
- The Texans are scoring 15.7 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- Houston is 26th in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing.
- The Texans are passing on 66% of their plays and running on 34% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Davis Mills is once again the starting quarterback for the Texans.
- The shift to Kyle Allen is among the most bizarre coaching decisions I’ve seen this season.
- Per the Edge, Dameon Pierce is eighth in the league in yards rushing with 861. Pierce had 73 yards rushing about the Browns last week, but he only had eight yards rushing in each of the two previous games. Pierce has at least three targets in each of his last four games.
- Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins are out, which means role expansion for Phillip Dorsett and Chris Moore.
- Jordan Akins has 11 targets over his last two games and has taken a commanding lead over O.J. Howard and Brevin Jordan in routes run during the season.
Cowboys Defense
- The Cowboys have allowed 17.2 points per game, which is third in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Cowboys have allowed the ninth-most yards rushing per game and the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Dallas has given up the 25th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Cowboys have allowed the 27th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Cowboys vs. Texans
A bet on Dallas is a bet on the Cowboys blowing out the worst team in the league. Dallas has a major advantage in both trenches. The Cowboys offense is a well-balanced attack that could conceivably shred the Texans in the air, while having a dominant showing on the ground. Dallas has breached 40 points in three of their last five games.
The Cowboys would have covered this now -17.5 line in all three of those contests. Dallas has the ability to dominate Houston in every phase. Your biggest concerns as a Cowboys bettor are that they come out flat offensively while Davis Mills’ is able to at least meet the Texans 14-point team total. At the currently -17.5 line, a 31-14 final loses against the spread for Dallas bettors.
The Texans are the worst team in football, and they are in a truly bad spot going forward. Lovie Smith’s decision to shift to Kyle Allen at quarterback a few weeks ago made absolutely no sense to me, primarily because it was borderline inevitable that they’d be changing back to Davis Mills, which they’ve done for this contest. There’s a very good chance that David Mills isn’t exactly brimming with confidence after being benched. Now he’s returning as the Texans starter without Brandin Cooks and potentially without Nico Collins against the Cowboys top tier defense.
From a pure football standpoint, the Texans could be dominated in every phase in this contest. That said, on the season, Houston has only lost one game by 17 or more points. That came against the Raiders back in Week 7. In Week 12 the high-powered Dolphins entered half time with a 30-0 lead, but Miami took their foot off the gas in the second half resulting in a 30-15 Texans loss. That Dolphins first half is your worst-case scenario here, and the Cowboys have the raw materials to achieve that type of outcome.
Awards Market Ramifications: Micah Parsons is the Defensive Player of the Year favorite. Dameon Pierce is a fading Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be taking Dallas in all of my winner pools, and I’ll have this game on top of my confidence pool rankings, which will be consensus.
Spread Pool: I will not bet on the Texans again this season, so that alone makes this a game where I take Dallas or pass. I try not to take massive favorites like this, but I am considering Dallas in my main tournament entry.
Survivor Pool: There are no sure things in NFL survivor pools, but the Cowboys are as close to a sure thing in this matchup as you’ll get.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 42-25
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