Thursday Night Football: Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) at Los Angeles Rams (3-9)
Opening Spread: Rams +5.5.
Opening Game Total: 44.5.
Weather: Hybrid stadium, no concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Rams +5.5.
- This line remains at Rams +5.5.
- This total opened at 44.5 points.
- This total remains at 44.5 points.
Rams: Out: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Allen Robinson. Questionable: QB John Wolford, WR Ben Skowronek, WR Lance McCutcheon, DL Aaron Donald, LB Terrell Lewis, CB Troy Hill.
Raiders: Out: WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Darren Waller. Questionable: RB Josh Jacobs, C Andre James, DT Andrew Billings, LB Jayon Brown, CB Rock Ya-Sin.
The Rams Offense vs. the Raiders Defense
The Rams have a bottom-tier offensive line that’s in contention for being the worst in the league. The Raiders have a below-average defensive line. The Raiders have an elite edge rusher in Maxx Crosby and a veteran in Chandler Jones, a premium pass rusher as recently as last season. The Raiders defense doesn’t have a significant macro advantage in this contest, but they have a notable advantage off the edge.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Rams are 3-8-1 against the spread this season.
- The Rams are 5-7 on overs this season.
- John Wolford is 4-2 against the spread in his career.
- John Wolford is 3-2-1 on overs in his career.
- Sean McVay is 46-44-3 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Sean McVay is 44-48-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Rams are scoring 16.8 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- Los Angeles is 23rd in the league in yards passing per game and 30th in yards rushing.
- Per Sports Info Solutions, the Rams are passing on 65% of their plays and running on 35% of their plays.
- With Matthew Stafford sidelined, the Rams turned to John Wolford last week after Bryce Perkins got the start in Week 12. The Rams claimed Baker Mayfield off waivers.
- Per the Edge, Cam Akers saw 17 of the Rams’ 20 running back carries last week against the Seahawks. Akers now has double-digit carries in two of his previous three games.
- Van Jefferson has a 13.6% target share and a 25.6% air yards share.
- Ben Skowronek has a 12.9% target share and a 13.5% air yards share.
- Tutu Atwell tied for the team lead in targets last week with five. Atwell has a 4.9% target share on the season with a 17.5% air yards share.
- Tyler Higbee has a 19.8% target share on the season, which is sixth among tight ends.
- Per TruMedia, Tyler Higbee has played 447 snaps as an inline tight end, 99 on the perimeter and 71 in the slot.
- The Raiders have allowed 24.7 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 18th-most yards rushing per game and the most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Las Vegas has given up the 11th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Las Vegas has given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Raiders have allowed the 11th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Raiders have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the third-most to those lined up in the slot.
The Raiders Offense vs. the Rams Defense
The Raiders have a below-average offensive line. The state of the Rams defensive front depends on the availability of Aaron Donald. If Donald plays, the Rams have an average to slightly below-average front from a macro sense, while Donald represents a significant individual matchup advantage against virtually any opponent. If Donald misses this contest, the Rams have a bottom-tier front. Neither side has a macro edge in the trenches in this matchup, though if Donald plays, he has a major individual advantage against Vegas.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Raiders are 6-6 against the spread this season.
- The Raiders are 6-5-1 on overs this season.
- Derek Carr is 67-70-2 against the spread in his career.
- Derek Carr is 72-62-5 on overs in his career.
- Josh McDaniels is 19-21 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Josh McDaniels is 20-19-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Raiders are scoring 24.3 points per game, which is ninth in the league.
- Las Vegas is eighth in the league in yards passing per game and 11th in yards rushing.
- The Raiders are passing on 64% of their plays and running on 36% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Josh Jacobs leads the league in yards rushing with 1303, and he’s tied for third in rushing touchdowns with ten. Jacobs is sixth among running backs in yards receiving.
- Over his last three games, Jacobs has 83 total carries for 482 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns. Jacobs has 24 or more carries in each of those contests, with 13 total targets during that span.
- Davante Adams is fourth in the league in receptions (79), fourth in yards receiving (1176), tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns (12), the leader in target share (32.9%), and fifth in air yards share (43%).
- Over his last five games, Adams has 41 receptions on 67 targets for 664 yards receiving and seven receiving touchdowns. Adams has double-digit targets in each of those contests.
- Mack Hollins has 29 targets over his last four games while breaching 50 yards receiving twice during that span. Hunter Renfrow has missed each of those contests.
- Foster Moreau has four or more targets in seven of his nine games this season. He’s had three targets twice in his last three games.
- Per TruMedia, Davante Adams has played 542 snaps on the perimeter and 156 in the slot.
- The Rams have allowed 23.3 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Rams have allowed the 26th-most yards rushing per game and the tenth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Los Angeles has given up the ninth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Los Angeles has given up the second-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Rams have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Raiders vs. Rams
A bet on the Rams is a bet on an injury-ravaged team that went from Super Bowl victor to bottom-five team in just one year. The Rams are without Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, rendering their offense to one of the most limited in the league. Despite their significant talent reductions, head coach Sean McVay can create strategic edges. McVay did just that last week against the Seahawks, making this group one that at least has a path to exceeding expectations, albeit it a very narrow path.
If you’re betting on the Rams, you’re at least betting on a relatively clean game with little to no turnovers from their offense. If Aaron Donald is active for this contest, the Rams defense has a path to limiting the Raiders, as Vegas is ill-equipped to take on a player like Donald. If Donald misses this contest, the Rams pass rush will be greatly reduced, creating several new ways that the Raiders can have a good day on offense. Your biggest concern as a Rams bettor is that Donald is significantly limited if he even suits up for this game. This leads to the Rams defense having a mediocre showing while their offense plays down after a very solid showing against the Seahawks last week.
The Raiders have won three games in a row, with their last two wins coming against playoff contenders in the Seahawks and Chargers. Vegas scored 27 or more points in their previous two games. If you’re betting on the Raiders, you are betting on Vegas at least meeting expectations on offense. Over the last several weeks, with Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, both sidelined, Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams have carried this offense behind massive volume. Derek Carr is a good NFL quarterback, but right now, the Raiders are extremely reliant on Jacobs and Adams. The Broncos, Seahawks, and Chargers haven’t been able to effectively game plan for that duo. If you’re betting on the Raiders, you are betting on the Rams’ defense failing to limit Jacobs and/or Adams.
If you’re betting on the Raiders, you should not build that bet around their defense. However, premium Edge Maxx Crosby will have a significant advantage on the outside against a backup quarterback in John Wolford. If the Raiders defense is going to limit an opponent this season, they won’t have a better opportunity than John Wolford’s Rams. Your biggest concern as a Raiders bettor is that Aaron Donald is a full go, while Vegas has only had a few days to prepare for him as a road team on the short week.
Raiders vs. Rams Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Raiders in my winner pools this week. In my confidence pool rankings, I expect to be in line with consensus on this game.
Spread Pool: I’d like to be able to get to a Rams bet as a 6-point or so home dog on Thursday Night Football. That said, after playing up last week against the Seahawks, I can’t get to any strong pro-Rams football stance in this game, so I’m going to pass on this one ATS. Given that in pools where you have to pick every game against the spread, I’d lean towards the Raiders side in that format, though I am definitely not betting that directly.
Survivor Pool: The Raiders are a reasonable survivor pool consideration this week. If Aaron Donald is a full go for this contest, I’m likelier to avoid Vegas. I might take Vegas as one of my secondary tournament entries if Donald is out, but not in my main entry.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 42-25
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