Analysis
12/11/22
7 min read
NFL Week 14 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Patriots vs. Cardinals
Monday Night Football: New England Patriots (6-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
Opening Spread: Cardinals +1.
Opening Game Total: 43.5.
Opening Team Totals: Cardinals (21.25) Patriots (22.25).
Weather: Indoors.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cardinals +1.
- This line has moved to Cardinals +1.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Cardinals +2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Cardinals +1.5.
- This total opened at 43.5 points.
- This total remains at 43.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Cardinals:
Out: Rondale Moore, CB Byron Murphy Jr.
Questionable: DL Zach Allen.
Patriots:
Out: WR Jakobi Meyers, RT Isaiah Wynn, CB Jalen Mills.
Doubtful: RB Damien Harris.
Questionable: LT Trent Brown.
Cardinals Offense vs. Patriots Defense
The Cardinals left tackle, left guard, center and right guard are all on injured reserve, making Arizona a bottom-tier offensive line. The Patriots have a league-average defensive line led by premium edge Matt Judon. New England’s defense has a moderate advantage in the trenches, while Judon has a significant individual advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cardinals are 6-6 against the spread this season.
- Arizona is 7-4-1 on overs this season.
- Kyler Murray is 29-25-2 against the spread in his career.
- Murray is 25-29-2 on overs in his career.
- Kliff Kingsbury is 32-27-2 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Kingsbury is 29-30-2 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Cardinals Offense
- Arizona is scoring 22 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- The Cardinals are 15th in the league in yards passing per game and 21st in yards rushing.
- Arizona is passing on 66% of their plays and running on 34% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- During his last three games, James Conner has double-digit carries while breaching 20 carries twice and has 11 targets during that span, per the Edge.
- DeAndre Hopkins has a 30.5% target share and a 45.8% air yards share.
- Marquise “Hollywood” Brown has a 26.8% target share and a 42.6% air yards share.
- This will be the second game Hopkins will play with Brown.
- With Rondale Moore ruled out, Greg Dortch steps into his role.
- Trey McBride has seven targets over the two games that Zach Ertz has missed.
- McBride has played 175 snaps as an inline tight end, 17 on the perimeter and 64 in the slot, per TruMedia.
Patriots Defense
- New England has allowed 18.8 points per game, which is seventh in the league.
- The Patriots have allowed the 27th-most yards rushing and the 16th-most yards receiving per game to running backs, per The Edge.
- New England has given up the 21st-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Patriots have allowed the 25th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- New England has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
Patriots Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
I have the Patriots tiered as a fringe top-10 offensive line. I have the Cardinals' defensive front tiered as a league-average unit, which is much higher than I had them to start the season. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Patriots are 6-5-1 against the spread this season.
- New England is 5-7 on overs this season.
- Mac Jones is 13-12-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jones is 12-14 on overs in his career.
- Bill Belichick is 208-145-12 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Belichick is 185-175-5 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
Patriots Offense
- New England is scoring 20.8 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- The Patriots are 20th in the league in yards passing per game and 23rd in yards rushing.
- New England is passing on 60% of their plays and running on 40% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Rhamondre Stevenson is 15th in the league in yards rushing (734), and he’s fourth among running backs in yards receiving (383), per The Edge
- DeVante Parker has an 11.7% target share and a 25.9% air yards share.
- Nelson Agholor has a 10.9% target share and a 16.4% air yards share.
- Tyquan Thornton has a 10.1% target share and a 16.3% air yards share.
- Kendrick Bourne has an 8% target share and a 10% air yards share.
- Each of these wide receivers could see some role expansion with Jakobi Meyers sidelined.
- Hunter Henry has an 11% target share and a 12.4% air yards share. Henry has 259 routes run to Jonnu Smith’s 109.
- Henry has played 338 snaps as an inline tight end, 39 on the perimeter, and 147 in the slot, per TruMedia.
Cardinals Defense
- Arizona has allowed 26.8 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- The Cardinals have allowed the 23rd-most yards rushing and the ninth-most yards receiving per game to running backs, per The Edge.
- Arizona has given up the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Cardinals have allowed the most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- Arizona has allowed the second-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the most to those lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Cardinals vs. Patriots
If you’re betting on the Cardinals, you are primarily betting on Murray and his top-five wide receiver duo to exceed expectations against a Belichick defense. The state of Arizona’s offensive line is an obstacle to reaching that outcome. Similarly, we’d all be more enthusiastic about the Cardinals' offense if Ertz and Moore were available.
Even as things stand now, the Cardinals' offense has a higher ceiling than most NFL teams with that trio of premium players. The Cardinals’ defense is giving up the second-most points per game this season. While Jones’ offense isn’t among the most dangerous in the league, it recently exceeded expectations against the Vikings on Thanksgiving night. If you’re betting on Arizona, it makes more sense to build that bet around their talented offense rather than their underwhelming defense.
A bet on the Patriots is always a bet on Belichick’s ability to create strategic edges. Belichick’s pass rush will have an advantage against an injury-ravaged Cardinals offensive line. Belichick is famous for making opponents play “left-handed.” Doing that against Arizona is less obvious than it is for most teams. Do you “take away” Hopkins or Hollywood? My guess is New England will try to make Murray play from the pocket while throwing different looks at both high-end wide receivers.
Murray is more dangerous as an out-of-structure playmaker than he is running Kingsbury’s offense from the pocket. Jones is a quick processor that matches up well against a Cardinals defense that tends to not give up big plays. If I’m betting on the Patriots, I am betting on their offense exceeding expectations. Your biggest concern as a Patriots bettor is Arizona’s offensive effort looks similar to Minnesota’s on Thanksgiving night.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: This is a coin flip game, and I’m treating it as such in both winner pools and in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I don’t have a notable lean against the spread in this contest, but I am interested in the over, which I've placed a small bet on. I’ll be playing this game in DraftKings’ showdown.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 42-25
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