Analysis
12/10/22
7 min read
NFL Week 14 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Panthers vs. Seahawks
Carolina Panthers (4-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
Opening Spread: Seahawks -4.5.
Opening Game Total: 43.5.
Opening Team Totals: Seahawks (24) Panthers (19.5).
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Seahawks -4.5.
- This line has moved down to Seahawks -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Seahawks -4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Seahawks -3.5.
- This total opened at 43.5 points.
- This total remains at 43.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Seahawks: Questionable: RB Kenneth Walker III, RB DeeJay Dallas, WR DK Metcalf, S Ryan Neal.
Panthers: Questionable: DT Matt Ioannidis, S Xavier Woods.
The Seahawks Offense vs. the Panthers Defense
I have the Seahawks tiered as a fringe top-ten offensive line. I have the Panthers front as a middle-of-the-pack unit that has improved as the season has gone on. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Seahawks are 6-6 against the spread this season.
- The Seahawks are 7-5 on overs this season.
- Geno Smith is 32-24-2 against the spread in his career.
- Geno Smith is 29-28-1 on overs in his career.
- Pete Carroll is 108-90-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Pete Carroll is 103-99-3 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
Seahawks Offense
- The Seahawks are scoring 26.5 points per game, good for fifth in the league.
- Seattle is seventh in the league in yards passing per game and 19th in yards rushing.
- Per Sports Info Solutions, the Seahawks are passing on 64% of their plays and running on 36% of plays.
- Per the Edge, Kenneth Walker III is 20th in the league in yards rushing with 650. Walker is considered a game-time decision for this Sunday.
- DK Metcalf has 67 receptions for 798 yards receiving and five touchdowns.
- Tyler Lockett has 66 receptions for 836 yards receiving and seven touchdowns.
- Noah Fant has 37 receptions for 382 yards receiving and two touchdowns.
- Per TruMedia, DK Metcalf has played 463 snaps on the perimeter and 98 in the slot.
- Tyler Lockett has played 361 snaps on the perimeter and 208 in the slot.
Panthers Defense
- The Panthers have allowed 22.2 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Panthers have allowed the eighth-most yards rushing per game and the 24th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Carolina has given up the 15th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Carolina has given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Panthers have allowed the 21st-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Panthers Offense vs. the Seahawks Defense
I have the Panthers offensive line in the average to below-average tier. I have Seattle’s front as a bottom-tier unit. The Panthers offensive line has a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Panthers are 6-6 against the spread this season.
- The Panthers are 4-8 on overs this season.
- Sam Darnold is 19-31-1 against the spread in his career.
- Sam Darnold is 22-29 on overs in his career.
- Steve Wilks is 12-10-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Steve Wilks is 9-14 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Panthers Offense
- The Panthers are scoring 19.2 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Carolina is 30th in the league in yards passing per game and 17th in yards rushing.
- Per Sports Info Solutions, the Panthers are passing on 56% of their plays and running on 44% of plays.
- Before the Panthers' bye last week, Sam Darnold made his first start at quarterback this season.
- Per the Edge, D’Onta Foreman has breached 100 yards rushing in four of his last six games. Foreman has less than 25 yards rushing in those other two contests. Foreman has more than one target in two games during that six-game span.
- DJ Moore breached 100 yards receiving in Sam Darnold’s first game this season. Last season Moore had 70 yards receiving or more in six of his first seven games with Darnold at quarterback.
- Terrace Marshall Jr. has six or more targets in three of his last five games.
Seahawks Defense
- The Seahawks have allowed 25.3 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Seahawks have allowed the seventh-most yards rushing per game and the 24th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Seattle has given up the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Seahawks have allowed the second-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Panthers vs. Seahawks
If you are betting on the Seahawks in this contest, you are building that bet almost entirely on Geno Smith’s passing game. That would have been a borderline unthinkable stance before the season started, but here we are. Kenneth Walker III is trending toward being out, as is his backup, DeeJay Dallas. Travis Homer and Tony Jones Jr. will take over at running back for Seattle if both players miss. That’s why you have to build your bet on the Seahawks passing attack. While I’d prefer Seattle to have the option of a balanced offense in this contest, this is a solid matchup for Geno Smith and his dynamic wide receiver duo.
Apart from the Seahawks potentially having a more one-dimensional offense in this matchup, my biggest concern with a Seahawks bet is that the Panthers could have a really strong game on the ground in this contest. If you’re betting on the Seahawks, you hope their defensive effort against Carolina looks a lot like their showing against the Giants earlier in the season, as the Panthers and Giants both have limited offenses that are overly reliant on their run game.
A bet on the Panthers is a bet on a team that didn’t quit when Steve Wilks took over back in October. The Panthers have beaten the Bucs, Falcons, and Broncos under Wilks. All of those wins came at home. Now they are coming off their bye to face a Seattle team that needs wins to stay in the NFC Wild Card race. For the Panthers to make this a game, you’re primarily banking on a strong running game against a very beatable Seahawks front. Pair that with a strong defensive showing against a Seahawks offense without their three top ball carriers in this contest, and the Panthers could leave Seattle with a win. Your biggest concern as a Panthers bettor is that Geno Smith has been a top-ten quarterback this season who can shred Carolina via DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Panthers vs. Seahawks Pool Picks and Other Bets
Awards Market Ramifications: Geno Smith is a Comeback Player of the Year contender. Kenneth Walker III is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender. Pete Carroll is a Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: On Monday, I intended to be very Seattle-heavy in winner pools. Now I think I’ll sprinkle in the Panthers in an entry or two. I expect to be right around consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I plan to avoid this contest against the spread.
Survivor Pool: I have planned to take Seattle in my main survivor pool entry on DraftKings, but I’m less confident in that stance, with Kenneth Walker trending towards being out.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 42-25
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