Betting
12/8/22
10 min read
NFL Week 14 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Jets vs. Bills
New York Jets (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)
Opening Spread: Bills -9.5
Opening Game Total: 44.5
Opening Team Totals: Bills (27) Jets (17.5)
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain and snow
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bills -9.5.
- This line remains at Bills -9.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bills -9.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bills -9.5.
- This total opened at 44.5 points.
- This total remains at 44.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Bills: Questionable: LT Dion Dawkins, LB Matt Milano
Jets: Questionable: WR Corey Davis, LT Duane Brown, RT George Fant, CB D.J. Reed, S Lamarcus Joyner
The Bills Offense vs. Jets Defense
I have the Bills' offensive line tiered as an average unit. I have the Jets' defensive front firmly entrenched as a top-10 front. The Jets' defense has a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bills are 6-6 against the spread this season.
- The Bills are 3-9 on overs this season.
- Josh Allen is 41-28-4 against the spread in his career.
- Josh Allen is 30-41-2 on overs in his career.
- Sean McDermott is 51-37-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Sean McDermott is 40-51-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Bills Offense
- The Bills are scoring 27.8 points per game, good for third in the league.
- Buffalo is fourth in the league in yards passing per game and eighth in yards rushing.
- The Bills are passing on 67% of their plays and running on 33% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Josh Allen is fourth among quarterbacks in yards rushing with 581.
- Last week against the Patriots, James Cook had 14 carries and six targets while Devin Singletary had 13 carries and two targets.
- That kind of backfield split is a new development for Buffalo.
- Stefon Diggs is second in the league in receptions (91), third in yards receiving (1,202), third in touchdown receptions (10), sixth in target share (29.3%), and 12th in air yards share (38.6%).
- Despite seeing seven or more targets in four of his last six games, Gabe Davis has under 40 yards receiving in four of those contests.
- After a 10-target usage spike with 96 yards receiving, Isaiah McKenzie caught all five of his targets for 44 yards receiving against the Patriots last week.
- Dawson Knox has three targets for 17 yards receiving over his last two games. Knox has fewer than 30 yards receiving in six of his 11 games this season.
Jets Defense
- The Jets have allowed 18.6 points per game, which is sixth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 19th-most yards rushing per game and the 12th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the third-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jets have allowed the 13th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Jets Offense vs. Bills Defense
The Jets have suffered an abnormal number of injuries at offensive tackle this season. If Duane Brown and George Fant are able to go in this contest, the Jets' offensive line will be in better shape than it has been for most of the last two months. I have the current iteration of the Jets' offensive line in the average to below average range. At full strength the Bills have a top-five level front, but I’ve pushed them back into average territory with Von Miller’s injury. Buffalo has a mild advantage in trenches in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jets are 7-5 against the spread this season.
- The Jets are 5-7 on overs this season.
- Mike White is 2-4 against the spread in his career.
- Mike White is 6-0 on overs in his career.
- Robert Saleh is 13-16 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Robert Saleh is 15-14 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Jets Offense
- The Jets are scoring 21 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- New York is 16th in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing.
- The Jets are passing on 62% of their plays and running on 38% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Mike White has breached 300 yards passing in each of his two starts this season. White threw four interceptions in his one game against the Bills last year.
- Per the Edge, Zonovan Knight has 29 carries and eight targets over his last two games. Michael Carter missed last week’s contest and left early the week before. That said, Knight was part of the early gameplan two weeks ago and looks like the Jets' primary ball carrier.
- With Carter off the injury report, we can reasonably expect him to take on the bulk of the passing game role while being the Jets' secondary runner.
- Since Mike White took over, Garrett Wilson has 13 receptions on 23 targets for 257 yards receiving and two scores. Wilson has a 27.7% target share and a 48.2% air yards share during those two games.
- Since Mike White took over, Corey Davis has a 15.7% target share and a 20.3% air yards share.
- Since Mike White took over, Elijah Moore has a 9.6% target share and a 13.5% air yards share.
- Since Mike White took over, Tyler Conklin has a 12% target share and an 11.2% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Garrett Wilson has played 324 snaps on the perimeter and 221 in the slot.
- Corey Davis has played 341 snaps on the perimeter and 82 in the slot.
- Elijah Moore has played 304 snaps on the perimeter and 163 in the slot.
Bills Defense
- The Bills have allowed 17.4 points per game, which is fourth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bills have allowed the 25th-most yards rushing per game and the 20th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Buffalo has given up the 13th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Buffalo has given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Bills have allowed the 24th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Bills vs. Jets
In Week 9 the Jets beat the Bills 20-17. The Jets have since shifted to Mike White at quarterback. While White has breached 300 yards passing in each of his two starts this season, he threw four interceptions in a blowout loss against the Bills last year.
A bet on the Bills is always a bet on Allen’s ability to elevate what is an otherwise average offense outside of Stefon Diggs. Diggs had a solid outing in the first matchup between these divisional rivals, but he had a 50% catch rate in that contest. The Jets' secondary, paired with their top-10 level pass rush, is equipped to limit Bills' pass-catchers as well as any team in the league. Since Buffalo has to cover a massive -9.5 points spread, you’re going to need the Bills' offense to at least meet expectations in this contest. You could build a Bills bet around their injury reduced defense. The Bills are down Von Miller along with multiple opening day starters in their secondary. Jets new quarterback White raises the ceiling of the Jets' offense, but he also had eight interceptions in four games last year, including four in one game against Buffalo. If you’re betting on the Bills, you’re betting on White turning the ball over a few times.
Your biggest concern as a Bills bettor is that the Jets' defense gives Buffalo all that it can handle for the second time this season. If White can play a relatively clean game behind a strong defensive effort, the Bills could realistically drop their second game to the Jets this season. While White’s more aggressive style could result in more turnovers that benefit Buffalo, you’re more afraid of a back door cover with White than you would be with any other Jets' quarterback.
The Jets are in the conversation for having the best defense in football. The Jets' secondary is a physical unit that consistently forces tight windows. The Jets' pass rush further reduces those passing windows. If you’re betting on the Jets, you are building that bet on their premium defense holding the Bills below expectations for the second time this season. I don’t particularly care for the idea of betting against Allen, but the Jets' defense has the raw materials to limit Buffalo again. White raises the ceiling of the Jets' offense, and his aggressive style has made the Jets a team that isn’t dead if they fall behind by two scores. But keep in mind that White has shredded two bottom-tier defenses over the last two weeks. He also threw eight interceptions in four games last year, including four in a game against the Bills.
Your biggest concern as a Jets bettor is that White has a turnover-heavy game that leads to the Bills winning this contest by two or more scores. On the other hand, White also creates more paths to the Jets coming from behind to make this contest close if Buffalo jumps out to an early lead.
Awards Market Ramifications: Garrett Wilson is a surging Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, Sauce Gardner is the Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite, and Robert Saleh is a Coach of the Year contender. Josh Allen is an MVP contender and Stefon Diggs is an Offensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I’ll be Buffalo-heavy, but I’m going to take the Jets in a couple of my winner pools this week. I will be below consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I have not bet the Jets' side directly, but I will either take them or pass here.
Survivor Pool: Buffalo isn’t an unreasonable survivor option as -9.5-point home favorites, but if you’ve held them this long, I’d likely hold them until their upcoming matchup with the Bears.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 42-25
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