Analysis
12/10/22
9 min read
NFL Week 14 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Jaguars vs. Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (7-5)
Opening Spread: Titans -3.5.
Opening Game Total: 41.5.
Opening Team Totals: Titans (22.5), Jaguars (19).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Titans -3.5.
- This line remains at -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Titans -4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Titans -3.5.
- This total opened at 41.5 points.
- This total has moved to 41.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Titans: Out: WR Treylon Burks, DL Denico Autry, LB David Long Jr., CB Kristian Fulton. Questionable: DL Jeffery Simmons, DT Teair Tart.
Jaguars: Out: LB Chad Muma. Questionable: QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Zay Jones, S Andre Cisco.
The Titans Offense vs. the Jaguars Defense
The Titans offensive line has been an injury-impacted unit for most of the season. I have them as a bottom-tier group. The Jaguars have a pair of blue-chip edge rushers still on their rookie contracts. While the Jaguars front has considerable potential and played very well early in the season, they’ve been more of a mediocre unit overall this season. I have the Jaguars defensive front as an average unit. Jacksonville has a mild advantage in the trenches in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Titans are 8-4 against the spread this season.
- The Titans are 4-8 on overs this season.
- Ryan Tannehill is 71-69-3 against the spread in his career.
- Ryan Tannehill is 76-75-2 on overs in his career.
- Mike Vrabel is 41-35-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Vrabel is 42-34-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Titans Offense
- The Titans are scoring 18.3 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Tennessee is 29th in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing.
- Per Sports Info Solutions, the Titans are passing on 53% of their plays and running on 47% of plays.
- Per the Edge, Derrick Henry is third in the league in yards rushing with 1078. Henry has 11 targets over his last four games.
- Robert Woods has a 21.4% target share and a 24.7% air yards share.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has an 11.6% target share and a 20.1% air yards share.
- Austin Hooper has a 13% target share and a 13.9% air yards share.
- Over the past two weeks, Chigoziem Okonkwo has a 14% target share and a 14.7% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Robert Woods has played 343 snaps on the perimeter and 155 in the slot.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has played 296 snaps on the perimeter and 37 in the slot.
- Austin Hooper has played 189 snaps as an inline tight end, 39 on the perimeter and 120 in the slot.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has played 127 snaps as an inline tight end, 26 on the perimeter and 45 in the slot.
Jaguars Defense
- The Jaguars have allowed 22.7 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the 22nd-most yards rushing per game and the third-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Jacksonville has given up the 12th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Jacksonville has given up the third-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Jaguars have allowed the seventh-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Jaguars Offense vs. the Titans Defense
I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw. I have the Jaguars tiered as a fringe top-ten offensive line. I have the Titans defensive front in the same cluster. That said, Tennessee will be without difference maker Denico Autry, which will make this group more of an average one.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jaguars are 4-8 against the spread this season.
- The Jaguars are 6-6 on overs this season.
- Trevor Lawrence is 9-20 against the spread in his career.
- Trevor Lawrence is 11-18 on overs in his career.
- Doug Pederson is 42-50 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Doug Pederson is 45-47 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars Offense
- The Jaguars are scoring 21.5 points per game, which is 17th in the league.
- Jacksonville is 17th in the league in yards passing per game and tenth in yards rushing.
- The Jaguars are passing on 62% of their plays and running on 38% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Travis Etienne is 12th in the league in yards rushing with 782. Etienne hasn’t cracked 60 yards rushing in any of his last three games. Etienne is 22nd among running backs in yards receiving.
- Christian Kirk has 62 receptions for 829 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. Kirk has a 24.6% target share and a 30.8% air yards share.
- Zay Jones has 60 receptions for 578 yards receiving and one touchdown. Jones has a 22.6% target share and a 24.6% air yards share.
- Marvin Jones has 42 receptions for 385 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Jones has a 15% target share and a 27.7% air yards share.
- Evan Engram has 42 receptions for 386 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Engram has a 15% target share with a 27.7% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Christian Kirk has played 194 snaps on the perimeter and 463 in the slot.
- Zay Jones has played 422 snaps on the perimeter and 194 in the slot.
- Marvin Jones has played 423 snaps on the perimeter and 73 in the slot.
- Evan Engram has played 253 snaps as an inline tight end, 120 on the perimeter and 196 in the slot.
Titans Defense
- The Titans have allowed 20 points per game, which is 11th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Titans have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing per game and the eighth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tennessee has given up the second-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Tennessee has given up the most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Titans have allowed the sixth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Titans have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Jaguars vs. Titans
This is the first matchup between these division rivals this season. Tennessee fired their general manager last week, which has to send a message to a Titans roster filled with holes.
The Titans have lost their last two games to Super Bowl contenders in the Bengals and Eagles. Tennessee was blown out in Philadelphia last week. If you’re betting on the Titans, you are betting on a perennial playoff team coming off back-to-back losses against elite opponents. The Titans have an average roster at full strength, and they’ve dealt with an abnormal number of injuries over the last two years. Despite that, Mike Vrabel has overseen a tough, physical football team that makes a habit of exceeding expectations.
That is what you are primarily betting on with any Titans bet. Your biggest concern with a Titans wager is that they draw an ascending but still inconsistent AFC South rival in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence is already the best quarterback in the division, and the Titans have a very beatable pass defense. If Lawrence and the Jaguars pass rush play up against a beatable Titans roster, Jacksonville has a realistic path to winning this game outright.
The Jaguars have a pretty bright future, with Trevor Lawrence showing considerable progress this season. The Jaguars have a top-ten level offensive line, a group of solid skill position players, a promising young defensive front, a good linebacker group, and a stable head coach in Doug Pederson. The Jaguars already have the foundation to be a factor as early as next season, but they are an inconsistent football team as of today.
If you are betting on Jacksonville, you are betting more on their young talent than their reliability against a Titans team that routinely exceeds expectations. If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you have to be at least a little concerned about the hit Trevor Lawrence took last week that landed him on the injury report. You have to think that the Jaguars will be careful with their future at quarterback through the rest of the season.
Apart from the general inconsistency of this Jaguars team, Derrick Henry steamrolls Jacksonville more often than not. While The Big Dog doesn’t always breach 100 yards on the ground against the Jaguars, he’s as likely to breach 200 yards on the ground as he is to fall below 100. A big day from Henry, paired with a strong defensive effort from the Titans, is your biggest concern as a Jaguars bettor.
Jaguars vs. Titans Pool Picks and Other Bets
Awards Market Ramifications: Derrick Henry is a Comeback Player of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I was expecting to be pretty Titans-heavy in winner pools this week, but I’m looking at more of a Titans seven Jaguars three type of ratio in that format. I expect to be a little lower than consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I was debating a Titans bet earlier in the week, but I’m leaning toward passing now.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools if possible. However, considering that it’s December and options are becoming more limited by the week, the Titans aren’t a cross-off in that format.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 42-25
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