Betting
12/10/22
12 min read
NFL Week 14 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions For Every Game
Playoff pictures are tightening up while certain teams are playing for little more than pride as we get closer to Week 14’s main slate. I provide betting previews for every NFL game, every week. Here you’ll find links to all of those articles along with a summary for each game. Sunday Night Football’s betting preview will be available Saturday night and Monday Night Football’s betting preview will be up on Sunday morning.
I have to recalibrate my stance on countless games based on injuries. Make sure you check in with our comprehensive injury report every week.
Jets at Bills
Opening Spread: Bills -9.5
Opening Game Total: 44.5
Opening Team Totals: Bills (27) Jets (17.5)
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain and snow
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bills -9.5.
- This line remains at Bills -9.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bills -9.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bills -9.5.
- This total opened at 44.5 points.
- This total remains at 44.5 points.
The Jets beat the Bills 20-17 earlier this season at MetLife Stadium. We know that we can expect dynamic play-making ability from Josh Allen. However, outside of Stefon Diggs, Allen has a very average supporting cast on offense. I’m concerned about that group’s ability to match up against a fast and physical Jets pass defense. New Jets quarterback Mike White has been a real asset against two bottom-tier pass defenses in the Bears and Vikings. With White at the helm, the Jets are no longer drawing dead if they have to play from behind. That said, White threw four interceptions in a game against Buffalo last season. That level of volatility is why I like the Jets as +10-point underdogs, but don’t love them.
Browns at Bengals
Opening Spread: Bengals -5.
Opening Game Total: 48.5.
Opening Team Totals: Bengals (26.75) Browns (21.75).
Weather: Outdoors, no concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bengals -5.
- This line has moved to Bengals -5.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bengals -6.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bengals -5.5.
- This total opened at 48.5 points.
- This total remains at 48.5 points.
Deshaun Watson was terrible in his return to NFL action in Houston last week. All quarterbacks make bad decisions and miss throws, but Watson skipped a number of short layups against the Texans while throwing a really bad pick in the endzone. Watson is a dynamic talent, but Cleveland is in trouble if Watson isn’t an entirely different player against Joe Burrow’s Bengals this week. Cleveland blew out rival Cincinnati 32-13 back in Week 8’s installment of Monday Night Football.
The Bengals are in contention for the AFC’s top seed and Burrow has never beaten the Browns, so I have no concerns about a Bengals letdown after Cincinnati’s win against the Chiefs last week. The Browns' defense has underachieved this season, but their pass rush derailed the Bengals offense earlier this year. The Bengals' offensive line is better and more reliable today than it was in that matchup, but I still like Joe Mixon’s over 59.5 yards rushing prop with the expectation that Cincinnati will go out of their way to mitigate the Browns pass rush through play calling.
Texans at Cowboys
Opening Spread: Cowboys -17.
Opening Game Total: 45.
Opening Team Totals: Cowboys (31) Texans (14).
Weather: Indoors.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cowboys -17.
- This line has moved to Cowboys -16.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Cowboys -16.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Cowboys -17.5.
- This total opened at 45 points.
- This total has moved to 44.5 points.
This is a tough spot for the worst team in the league. Houston’s shift to Kyle Allen is among the most bizarre personnel decisions I’ve seen all year. After two games of Allen, the Texans have turned back to Davis Mills, who will be without his top two options in the passing game in Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins. He’ll face a Dallas team that is giving up the third-fewest points per game in the league.
Dallas has scored 40 or more points in three of their last five games. If the Cowboys can jump out to an early lead against the league’s worst team, the Dallas defense could have a literal field day in this contest. I don’t make a habit of betting massive favorites, but I’m either going to take Dallas or pass against the spread this week. Josh Larky took some Dameon Pierce unders this week, which make a lot of sense from matchup and game script perspectives.
Vikings at Lions
Opening Spread: Lions +1.
Opening Game Total: 53.
Opening Team Totals: Lions (26), Vikings (27).
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Lions +1.
- This line has moved to Lions -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Lions -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Lions -2.5.
- This total opened at 53 points.
- This total has moved to 52.5 points.
As we discussed on Monday’s installment of Betting the NFL, I liked the Lions as a surprise slight favorite against the Vikings. The Lions have won three of their last four games while breaching 30 points in each of those wins. In their one loss during that stretch, Detroit gave the Bills all they could handle on Thanksgiving Day. Detroit is in much more desperate need of a win than Minnesota, and the Lions led for most of their 28-24 loss to the Vikings back in Week 3. This line has gotten steamed from Lions -1 to as high as Lions -2.5. Former NFL safety Tank Williams thinks that level of disrespect is a good thing for Minnesota. Hearing a former player like Tank talk about this factor decreased my enthusiasm for the Lions in this matchup.
Eagles at Giants
Opening Spread: Giants +6.5.
Opening Game Total: 45.5.
Opening Team Totals: Giants (19.5) Eagles (26).
Weather: Outdoors, rain expected.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Giants +6.5.
- This line has moved up to Giants +7.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Giants +6.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Giants +6.5.
- This total opened at 45.5 points.
- This total remains at 45.5 points.
The Giants are freefalling back to reality and they’ll be going into this contest without several of their best players. I’ve been calling the Eagles the best roster in football all season. They are entering this game with no current starters on the injury report. Philadelphia can dominate this game in every phase. During the Player Prop Happy Hour, I took Darius Slayton’s over-receiving yards with the expectation that the Giants will be in a negative game script for much of this contest. Ben Wolby took Miles Sanders over yards rushing, which was the first prop I looked for on the Week 14 slate. Against the spread, I took the Eagles -6.5 as I expected this line to move, and it has.
Ravens at Steelers
Opening Spread: Steelers -2.
Opening Game Total: 37.5.
Opening Team Totals: Steelers (19.75) Ravens (17.75).
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Steelers -2.
- This line has moved to Steelers -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Steelers -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Steelers -2.5.
- This total opened at 37.5 points.
- This total remains at 37.5 points.
Tyler Huntley is taking over at quarterback for the injured Lamar Jackson. I have taken Mark Andrews over 4.5 receptions at -115 as Huntley was great for Andrews last season. I also took Kenny Pickett to throw an interception in this contest, with the expectation that this will be a gritty, defensive-driven matchup between two AFC rivals. I have a mild interest in the Steelers against the spread, but I’m leaning toward passing on that option.
Jaguars at Titans
Opening Spread: Titans -3.5.
Opening Game Total: 41.5.
Opening Team Totals: Titans (22.5), Jaguars (19).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Titans -3.5.
- This line remains at -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Titans -4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Titans -3.5.
- This total opened at 41.5 points.
- This total has moved to 41.5 points
The Titans are one of those teams that I don’t have a great read on, because they are an average at best a roster that consistently exceeds expectations. Mike Vrabel’s Titans have lost back-to-back games to Super Bowl contenders in the Bengals and Eagles. I don’t view the Titans as a good roster, but Vrabel’s football operation is dangerous in a clear bounce-back spot against a young, inconsistent Jaguars team. Trevor Lawrence took a brutal hit to his legs last week that landed him on this week’s injury report. If that hit didn’t happen and Lawrence was a full go, I’d be considering the Jaguars with the hook here.
Panthers at Seahawks
Opening Spread: Seahawks -4.5.
Opening Game Total: 43.5.
Opening Team Totals: Seahawks (24) Panthers (19.5).
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Seahawks -4.5.
- This line has moved down to Seahawks -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Seahawks -4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Seahawks -3.5.
- This total opened at 43.5 points.
- This total remains at 43.5 points.
I have planned to take the Seahawks in my live $1.2 million DraftKings survivor pool entry for weeks. The state of the Seahawks' running back room has decreased my enthusiasm on that angle as Seattle will be more pass-reliant if both Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas miss this contest. Those injuries narrow the ways in which the Seahawks can win this game. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers are well-positioned to have success on the ground. Consequently, why I’ve taken D’Onta Foreman’s over 63.5 yards rushing. I discuss a potential path to a Panthers victory in my betting preview for this game, which is why I’m on the fence about Seattle in survivor this week.
Chiefs at Broncos
Opening Spread: Broncos +9.
Opening Game Total: 43.
Opening Team Totals: Broncos (17) Chiefs (26).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Broncos +9.
- This line has moved to Broncos +9.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Broncos +9.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Broncos +9.5.
- This total opened at 43 points.
- This total has moved to 42.5 points.
In order for Denver to cover in this contest you’re either going to need a herculean defensive effort against Patrick Mahomes’ offense coming off a loss, or you’re going to need Russell Wilson’s first spike game as a Bronco. Those are two very narrow, outlier paths to success for Denver. They also make the Broncos an interesting, albeit aggressive, contrarian option in winner pools this week. As things stand now, I’m going to avoid this game against the spread and I haven’t taken any props in this matchup.
Buccaneers at 49ers
Opening Spread: 49ers -3.
Opening Game Total: 37.5.
Opening Team Totals: 49ers (20.25) Buccaneers (17.25).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as 49ers -3.
- This line has moved to 49ers -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the 49ers -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the 49ers -3.5.
- This total opened at 37.5.
- This total remains at 37.5.
Brock Purdy, the final pick in this year’s draft in his first NFL start, is a 3.5-point favorite against Tom Brady this week. That says all you need to know about the 6-6 Buccaneers. The 49ers' defense has a significant advantage in the trenches and the Buccaneers' offense has been among the most disappointing units in the league this season. On the Player Prop Happy Hour show, I took Kyle Juszczyk to breach 8.5 yards receiving in this matchup.
Dolphins at Chargers
Opening Spread: Chargers +3
Opening Game Total: 52
Opening Team Totals: Chargers (24.5) Dolphins (27.5)
Weather: Hybrid stadium, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Chargers +3.
- This line has moved to Chargers +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Chargers +3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chargers +3.5.
- This total opened at 52-points.
- This total has moved to 51.5 points.
Right now, I’m planning to take my chances with Justin Herbert getting +3.5-points in a borderline must-win primetime game. The Chargers' injury-ravaged roster paired with the ceiling of Miami’s offense is my primary concern with this stance.
Patriots at Cardinals
I could see this game significantly exceeding its 43.5 game total. I’m going to place a small bet on the over while getting most of my exposure to that type of outcome by playing showdown more significantly than I normally do.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 42-25
WATCH MORE: Player Prop Happy Hour
