Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at New York Giants (7-4-1)
Opening Spread: Giants +6.5.
Opening Game Total: 45.5.
Opening Team Totals: Giants (19.5) Eagles (26).
Weather: Outdoors, rain expected.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Giants +6.5.
- This line has moved up to Giants +7.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Giants +6.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Giants +6.5.
- This total opened at 45.5 points.
- This total remains at 45.5 points.
Giants: Out: CB Adoree’ Jackson, S Xavier McKinney. Questionable: RB Saquon Barkley, WR Richie James, LG Joshua Ezeudu, DL Leonard Williams.
Eagles: Out: Edge Robert Quinn, S C.J. Gardner Johnson. Questionable: WR Quez Watkins, LB Kyzir White.
The Giants Offense vs. Eagles Defense
The Giants have a below average offensive line. The Eagles have a top-five defensive front. Philadelphia’s defense has a major advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Giants are 9-3 against the spread this season.
- The Giants are 4-8 on overs this season.
- Daniel Jones is 28-22 against the spread in his career.
- Daniel Jones is 19-29-2 on overs in his career.
- Brian Daboll is 9-3 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Brian Daboll is 4-8 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Giants are scoring 20.4 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
- New York is 28th in the league in yards passing per game and sixth in yards rushing.
- The Giants are passing on 57% of their plays and running on 43% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Daniel Jones is fifth among quarterbacks in yards rushing with 522.
- Saquon Barkley is fourth in the league in yards rushing with 1055. Barkley is 15th among running backs in yards receiving. Barkley has five or more targets in four of his last five games.
- Darius Slayton has at least six targets in five of his last six games. Slayton has 58 yards receiving or more in all of those contests.
- Isaiah Hodgins has eight receptions on ten targets for 75 yards receiving and a score over his last two games.
- Richie James has more than three targets in one of his last eight games.
- Giants’ rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger returned to action last week after missing over a month with an eye socket injury. Bellinger caught all five of his targets for 24 yards receiving last week.
- The Eagles have allowed 18.8 points per game, which is seventh in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Eagles have allowed the 15th-most yards rushing per game and the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Philadelphia has given up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Eagles have allowed the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Eagles Offense vs. Giants Defense
The Eagles have a top-five offensive line. From a talent perspective the Giants have a top-ten level defensive front, but they underachieved for most of the month of November. I’m treating the Giants front between a fringe top-ten group and a middle-of-the-pack unit. The Eagles offensive line has a mild advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Eagles are 7-5 against the spread this season.
- The Eagles are 8-4 on overs this season.
- Jalen Hurts is 20-21-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jalen Hurts is 22-20 on overs in his career.
- Nick Sirianni is 15-13-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nick Sirianni is 18-11 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Eagles are scoring 28.2 points per game, which is second in the league.
- Philadelphia is 12th in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing.
- The Eagles are passing on 55% of their plays and running on 45% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Jalen Hurts is third among quarterbacks in yards rushing with 609.
- Miles Sanders is sixth in the league in yards rushing with 924. Sanders hasn’t breached three targets in a game all year, while he has one or less in six of his 12 games.
- A.J. Brown has 61 receptions for 950 yards receiving and nine touchdowns. Brown is ninth in the league in target share (28.2%) and he’s 13th in air yards share (38.5%).
- DeVonta Smith has 61 receptions for 711 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns. Smith has a 25.6% target share and a 30% air yards share.
- Jack Stoll has four targets over the two games he’s filled in for injured Dallas Goedert.
- The Giants have allowed 21 points per game, which is 12th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Giants have allowed the fourth-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the 19th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Giants have allowed the fourth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Giants have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Giants vs. Eagles
A bet on the Giants is a bet on a team that is now freefalling back to reality after their hot start. The Giants have a very limited offense with a below average offensive line and one of the thinnest groups of pass catchers in the league. One of the few bright spots, Saquon Barkley, is on the injury report after not quite looking like himself after his 35-carry outing against the Texans three weeks ago. If you’re betting on the Giants, there are only narrow paths to this offense exceeding expectations against a top tier defense like Philadelphia’s. The Giants defense drove their early success, but they’ve been more of a middling group in recent weeks. The Lions hung 31 points on the Giants, the Cowboys scored 28 points on Thanksgiving, and New York gave up a late lead to Washington last week. The Giants talented front is underachieving, and their secondary has been ravaged by injuries. Ultimately, if you’re betting on the Giants, you’re going to need New York to play their most complete game in over a month while the Eagles play down like they did against Washington a few weeks ago. Another concern with a Giants bet is that they played the full overtime period against Washington last week.
The Eagles have the best roster in football. Plain and simple. When Jalen Hurts plays at the MVP-caliber level that’s been his norm this season, the Eagles are an extraordinarily tough out. The Eagles offensive line can mitigate the Giants talented front, which clears a path for Philadelphia to have success on the ground while Jalen Hurts can shred the Giants injury-reduced secondary. On defense the Eagles have a major advantage in the trenches and their secondary could conceivably blanket the Giants well below average collection of pass catchers. Your biggest concern as an Eagles bettor is that the combination of Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley combine for a big game on the ground. Your second is that the Giants are able to get pressure with their front four and Hurts struggles like he did against Washington. To be clear, those are all narrow paths for the Giants.
Awards Market Ramifications: Jalen Hurts is an MVP favorite. Nick Sirianni is a Coach of the Year favorite. Saquon Barkley is a Comeback Player of the Year contender. Brian Daboll is more or less out of the Coach of the Year race with a loss here.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to play the Eagles in my winner pools, but a desperate Giants team serves as an interesting differentiator pick. I expect to be right inline with consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: From a pure football standpoint the Eagles have advantages in virtually every position group. A Giants bet has to primarily be built on motivation and outlier outcomes. While this is the type of spot where the home dog plays up, I’m going to take the Eagles or pass here.
Survivor Pool: The Eagles aren’t an unreasonable survivor pool option, but if you still have Philadelphia available they have a number of deployable matchups on the horizon.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 42-25
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