Betting

NFL Week 14 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Dolphins vs. Chargers

Justin Herbert Emmanuel Ogbah Chargers vs. Dolphins

Sunday Night Football: Miami Dolphins (8-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)

Opening Spread: Chargers +3

Opening Game Total: 52

Opening Team Totals: Chargers (24.5) Dolphins (27.5)

Weather: Hybrid stadium, concerns

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Chargers +3.
  • This line has moved to Chargers +3.5.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Chargers +3.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chargers +3.5.
  • This total opened at 52-points.
  • This total has moved to 51.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Chargers: Doubtful: RT Trey Pipkins III, DL Sebastian Joseph-Day, CB Bryce Callahan, S Derwin James Jr.

Dolphins: Questionable: TE Durham Smythe, LT Terron Armstead

The Chargers Offense vs. Dolphins Defense

The Chargers will be marching out two reserve offensive tackles in this contest, making them a below average offensive line. With the addition of edge Bradley Chubb the Dolphins have a fringe top-ten defensive line. Miami has a moderate, bordering on significant, advantage in the trenches.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Chargers are 7-5 against the spread this season.
  • The Chargers are 6-6 on overs this season.
  • Justin Herbert is 23-21 against the spread in his career.
  • Justin Herbert is 25-19 on overs in his career.
  • Brandon Staley is 15-14 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Brandon Staley is 16-13 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Chargers Offense

  • The Chargers are scoring 22.7 points per game, good for 14th in the league.
  • Los Angeles is fifth in the league in yards passing per game and 31st in yards rushing.
  • The Chargers are passing on 70% of their plays and running on 30% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
  • Per the Edge, Austin Ekeler is 28th in the league in yards rushing and second among running backs in yards receiving.
  • Since his return from injury Keenan Allen has 29 targets over three games. Allen has breached 80 yards receiving in two of those three contests.
  • Before his ankle injury Mike Williams had double-digit targets in three of his first seven games. Williams breached 100 yards receiving in each of those contests.
  • Josh Palmer has a team-leading 19.6% target share with a 29.5% air yards share.
  • Gerald Everett has a 13.9% target share and a 13.5% air yards share.

Dolphins Defense

  • The Dolphins have allowed 24.1 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Dolphins have allowed the fourth-fewest yards rushing per game and the sixth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Miami has given up the 16th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Dolphins have allowed the eighth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • The Dolphins have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends and the seventh-most to those in the slot.

The Dolphins Offense vs. Chargers Defense

I have the Dolphins offensive line tiered as a league-average unit. Without difference-making edge Joey Bosa, the Chargers have a slightly below-average defensive front. Miami has a mild advantage in pass protection, with a significant edge in the run game.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Dolphins are 6-6 against the spread this season.
  • The Dolphins are 6-6 on overs this season.
  • Tua Tagovailoa is 20-12-1 against the spread in his career.
  • Tua Tagovailoa is 14-19 on overs in his career.
  • Mike McDaniel is 6-6 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Mike McDaniel is 6-6 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Dolphins Offense

  • The Dolphins are scoring 24.9 points per game, which is eighth in the league.
  • Miami is second in the league in yards passing per game and 28th in yards rushing.
  • The Dolphins are passing on 66% of their plays and running on 34% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
  • Per the Edge, since Jeff Wilson joined the Dolphins he has double-digit carries in two of his four games. Raheem Mostert was active for three of those four games, where he had a range of seven-to-nine carries in each of those contests.
  • Tyreek Hill leads the league in receptions (96) and yards receiving (1,379) with five receiving touchdowns. Hill is third in the league in target share (31.1%) and eighth in air yards share (40.7%).
  • Jaylen Waddle has 57 receptions for 972 yards receiving and six touchdowns. Waddle has a 21.4% target share and a 28.5% air yards share.
  • Trent Sherfield has breached 60 yards receiving in two of his last three games. Sherfield failed to meet that mark in any of his previous nine games. Sherfield had less than 10 yards receiving in five of those first nine games.
  • Mike Gesicki had one single target in each of his last two games. Gesicki had a 69 yards receiving, two touchdown spike game against the Vikings in mid-October. Otherwise, Gesicki has less than 40 yards receiving in ten of his other 11 games.

Chargers Defense

  • The Chargers have allowed 25.8 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Chargers have allowed the second-most yards rushing per game and the 27th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Los Angeles has given up the 17th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Chargers have allowed the fifth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.

This Is What You’re Betting on in Chargers vs. Dolphins

If You’re a Chargers Bettor

Heading into opening day the Chargers had one of the best rosters in football; injuries have changed that. If you’re betting on the Chargers, you are primarily betting on Justin Herbert in what is close to a must-win game against the Dolphins this week. This will mark just the third time this season that Herbert will have his full assortment of skill position players this season. The ceiling is considerable for Herbert and the Chargers’ offense in this spot.

Your only concern on that side of the ball is that Los Angeles will be down both of their opening day offensive tackles against an improving Dolphins’ front. Your biggest concern as a Chargers bettor is their ability to manage the Dolphins’ high-powered offense. Not only is the dynamic receiving duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle of paramount concern, but we can reasonably expect Mike McDaniel to exploit the Chargers’ nearly non-existent run defense. The Chargers’ defense could lose in every phase against Miami’s offense.

If You’re A Dolphins Bettor

A bet on the Dolphins begins as a bet on Miami’s dynamic offense. The Dolphins have the best wide receiver duo in the sport, one of the most dynamic offensive play-callers in the league, a good offensive line, and a very accurate passer in Tua Tagovailoa. Tua hasn’t faced a lot of premium pass rushes this season, which I mention because I expect Tua to be a pretty pressure sensitive quarterback going forward. Fortunately for Miami, the Chargers’ pass rush has been without Joey Bosa for most of the season, so that isn’t a major concern for Miami bettors.

In fact, this is a plus matchup across the board for Miami’s offense. Your concern as a Dolphins bettor is that you’re getting Justin Herbert, with his full complement of weapons, in what’s close to a must-win game for the Chargers. The Dolphins’ pass rush could be a factor here against an injury-reduced Chargers’ offensive line, but Herbert has shown that he’s capable of beating anyone. If you’re betting on Miami, be aware that this is the Dolphins’ second road game in a row on the west coast. Miami stayed on the west coast this entire week, making this an abnormal week of preparation for the Dolphins.

Awards Market Ramifications: Mike McDaniel is a Coach of the Year candidate. Tyreek Hill is an Offensive Player of the Year contender.

Winner/Confidence Pool: I’m going to get exposure to both of these teams in winner pools, though I will be a little Miami-heavy. I’m going to treat this game as more of a coin flip in my confidence pool rankings, so I expect to be below consensus in that format.

Spread Pool: I’m going to take my chances with Justin Herbert’s Chargers with the hook, but I’m not overly confident in that stance given the Chargers litany of injuries.

Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 43-22

Props 2022: 42-25

WATCH MORE: You Need to Stash Chargers’ Backup RB in Fantasy

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