Analysis
12/10/22
8 min read
NFL Week 14 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Buccaneers vs. 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
Opening Spread: 49ers -3.
Opening Game Total: 37.5.
Opening Team Totals: 49ers (20.25) Buccaneers (17.25).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as 49ers -3.
- This line has moved to 49ers -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the 49ers -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the 49ers -3.5.
- This total opened at 37.5.
- This total remains at 37.5.
Notable Injuries
49ers: Out: QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Questionable: Edge Nick Bosa.
Buccaneers: Doubtful: RT Tristan Wirfs, S Antoine Winfield Jr., S Mike Edwards. Questionable: RB Leonard Fournette, DL Akiem Hicks, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting.
The 49ers Offense vs. the Buccaneers Defense
I have the 49ers tiered as a fringe top-ten offensive line. I have the Buccaneers front tiered as a slightly below-average group. The 49ers offensive line has a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The 49ers are 7-5 against the spread this season.
- The 49ers are 5-7 on overs this season.
- Brock Purdy is 1-0 against the spread in his career.
- Brock Purdy is 1-0 on overs in his career.
- Kyle Shanahan is 46-46-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kyle Shanahan is 46-45-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
49ers Offense
- The 49ers are scoring 23.5 points per game, good for 13th in the league.
- San Francisco is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and 14th in yards rushing.
- Per Sports Info Solutions, the 49ers are passing on 57% of their plays and running on 43% of plays.
- No. 262 pick Brock Purdy is taking over at quarterback for the 49ers. In his first game of considerable action last week against Miami, Purdy was a conservative pocket passer.
- Per the Edge, Christian McCaffrey is 16th in the league in yards rushing and is first among running backs in yards receiving. McCaffrey had ten targets last week against the Dolphins.
- Deebo Samuel had ten targets last week against Miami, just the second time he’s reached that mark this season. Deebo has a 24.4% target share on the season.
- Brandon Aiyuk had nine targets last week, and he has a 21.5% target share this season.
- George Kittle only had three targets last week, his second-lowest mark on the season. Kittle has an 18.3% target share on the year.
Buccaneers Defense
- The Buccaneers have allowed 18.3 points per game, which is fifth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Buccaneers have allowed the 16th-most yards rushing per game and the fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tampa Bay has given up the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Buccaneers have allowed the ninth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to tight ends this season.
The Buccaneers Offense vs. the 49ers Defense
I have the Buccaneers injury-reduced offensive line tiered as a slightly below-average unit. With Arik Armstead back in action, I have the 49ers defensive front ranked as a top-five unit. The 49ers defensive front has a significant advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Buccaneers are 3-8-1 against the spread this season.
- The Buccaneers are 2-10 on overs this season.
- Tom Brady is 187-131-12 against the spread in his career.
- Tom Brady is 169-159-2 on overs in his career.
- Todd Bowles is 35-39-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Todd Bowles is 37-42 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Buccaneers Offense
- The Buccaneers are scoring 18.1 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
- Tampa Bay is sixth in the league in yards passing per game and last in yards rushing.
- Per Sports Info Solutions, the Buccaneers are passing on 68% of their plays and running on 32% of plays.
- Per the Edge, last week against the Saints, Leonard Fournette had 10 carries and 7 targets, while Rachaad White had 9 carries and 8 targets.
- Chris Godwin has double-digit targets in seven of his ten games this season. Godwin has at least six receptions in all but one of his ten games this year. Godwin has a 22.7% target share with an 18.3% air yards share.
- Mike Evans hasn’t breached 60 yards receiving in any of his last four games, although he was close last week with 59. Evans has 30 targets over that four-game span. Evans has a 19.1% target share with a 35.8% air yards share.
- Julio Jones has breached 50 yards receiving in two of his seven games this season.
- Cameron Brate has an 11.5% target share, and Cade Otton has a 9.7% target share.
49ers Defense
- The 49ers have allowed 15.8 points per game, which is the best in the league.
- Per The Edge, the 49ers have allowed the fewest yards rushing per game and the 26th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- San Francisco has given up the eighth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- San Francisco has given up the fifth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The 49ers have allowed the third-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Buccaneers vs. 49ers
Calling Brock Purdy impressive last week would give many of our users the wrong impression. Joe Burrow is impressive, Justin Fields has been impressive this year. Brock Purdy doesn’t have the ceiling that either of those guys does. However, Purdy was better and more confident than I would expect in a tough spot against a premium opponent. Purdy at least can be a solid game manager.
A bet on the 49ers is a bet on Brock Purdy as a -3.5-point favorite against Tom Brady’s Buccaneers. While that sounds completely insane on the surface, Purdy takes over one of the league’s best supporting casts. San Francisco is absolutely loaded on offense with a top-tier play caller, an elite running back, a top-ten offensive line, and a top-ten collection of pass catchers. The 49ers defense is a top-five group that has only given up 20 or more points twice this season. The 49ers and the Eagles have the two best non-quarterback rosters in the league.
In this matchup against the Buccaneers, we can reasonably expect a conservative 49ers game plan on offense, with YAC creating manufactured touches for Deebo Samuel, with Christian McCaffrey serving as the league’s best safety valve. San Francisco will lean on their defense against what’s been a very disappointing Buccaneers offense. The 49ers defense has a significant trench advantage against statuesque pocket passer Tom Brady. The Buccaneers are only scoring 18.1 points per game this season, so a bet on the 49ers is a bet on San Francisco’s defense holding Tampa below that number. Your biggest concern as a 49ers bettor is that Brock Purdy either turns the ball over multiple times or has to play from behind late.
A bet on the Buccaneers is a bet on Tom Brady as a +3.5-road dog against a quarterback taken with the last pick in this year’s draft. The Buccaneers offense hasn’t been very good this season, and they’ve struggled against significantly worse defenses than this one. So, if you’re betting on the Bucs, you are primarily betting against Brock Purdy in his first NFL start. You’re doing that with the expectation that Tom Brady’s offense likely struggles against the 49ers difference-making front. That brings you to your biggest concern as a Buccaneers bettor; Tampa has breached 20 points in just five games this season. After sluggish games against the Saints, Browns, and even the Seahawks in Munich, this team now gets a 49ers defense that is dictating virtually every game they play this season.
Buccaneers vs. 49ers Pool Picks and Other Bets
Awards Market Ramifications: Nick Bosa is an ascending Defensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to be 49ers-heavy in winner pools, though I’m going to try to rank this game as low as I can in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m going to take the 49ers’ side or pass in this contest.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools if possible.
Ryan’s recent betting record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 42-25
WATCH: Buccaneers vs. 49ers Betting Preview
