Betting

NFL Week 13 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Seahawks vs. Rams

Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Los Angeles Rams (3-8)

Opening Spread: Rams +5.

Opening Game Total: 42.

Opening Team Totals: Rams (18.5), Seahawks (23.5).

Weather: Hybrid stadium, no concerns.

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Rams +5.
  • This line has moved to Rams +7.5.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Rams +7.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Rams +7.
  • This total opened at 42 points.
  • This total has moved slightly down to 41.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Rams: Out: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Allen Robinson, WR Lance McCutcheon, DL Aaron Donald, LB Terrell Lewis. Questionable: C Brian Allen, LB Ernest Jones, CB Troy Hill.

Seahawks: Questionable: S Ryan Neal.

The Rams Offense vs. the Seahawks Defense

The Rams have an injury-ravaged, bottom-tier offensive line. The Seahawks have a bottom-tier defensive front. The Seahawks front has had a few spike games this season, which is why I’m giving them a slight advantage in this matchup.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Rams are 2-8-1 against the spread this season.
  • The Rams are 4-7 on overs this season.
  • Sean McVay is 45-44-3 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Sean McVay is 43-48-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Rams Offense

  • The Rams are scoring 16.2 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
  • Los Angeles is 22nd in the league in yards passing per game and 31st in yards rushing.
  • John Wolford is starting at quarterback this week for the Rams. Wolford had a middling effort against the Cardinals earlier this season that the Rams lost 27-17.
  • Per the Edge, Kyren Williams had 11 carries and three targets last week, while Cam Akers had eight carries and no targets. The previous week Akers out carried Williams 14-to-7. Akers had no targets in that contest, either.
  • Van Jefferson has five or more targets in three of his four games this season.
  • Tyler Higbee has eight targets in two of his last three games, though he did not receive a target last week against the Chiefs despite playing 33 snaps and running ten routes.

Seahawks Defense

  • The Seahawks have allowed 25.5 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most yards rushing per game and the most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Seattle has given up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Seahawks have allowed the second-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the ninth-most to those lined up in the slot.

The Seahawks Offense vs. the Rams Defense

The Seahawks have a fringe top-ten offensive line. Without Aaron Donald, the Rams have a bottom-tier defensive front. Seattle has a significant advantage in the trenches in this matchup.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Seahawks are 6-5 against the spread this season.
  • The Seahawks are 6-5 on overs this season.
  • Geno Smith is 32-23-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Geno Smith is 28-28-1 on overs in his career.
  • Pete Carroll is 108-89-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
  • Pete Carroll is 102-99-3 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.

Seahawks Offense

  • The Seahawks are scoring 26.5 points per game, good for fourth in the league.
  • Seattle is ninth in the league in yards passing per game and 16th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, Kenneth Walker is 19th in the league in yards rushing with 614 yards. Walker is tied for fourth in rushing touchdowns with nine. Walker had eight targets against the Buccaneers in Week 10 but only one against the Raiders last week.
  • DK Metcalf has 59 receptions for 671 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Metcalf has a 26.7% target share and a 36.8% air yards share.
  • Tyler Lockett has 57 receptions for 708 yards receiving and six touchdowns. Lockett has a 22.7% target share and a 33.5% air yards share.
  • On the season, Will Dissly has 501 snaps and 174 routes run, with a 9% target share. Noah Fant has 398 snaps, 202 routes run, and an 11.9% target share.
  • Per TruMedia, D.K. Metcalf has played 414 snaps on the perimeter and 91 in the slot.
  • Tyler Lockett has played 325 snaps on the perimeter and 187 in the slot. 

Rams Defense

  • The Rams have allowed 23 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Rams have allowed the 24th-most yards rushing per game and the tenth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Los Angeles has given up the 13th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • Los Angeles has given up the second-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
  • The Rams have allowed the 21st-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.

This Is What You’re Betting On in Seahawks vs. Rams

You don’t have much to work with if you’re betting on the Rams. You’re getting a below-average backup quarterback in John Wolford, the worst offensive line in the league, with arguably the worst running game in the NFL. On top of that, Cooper Kupp is on IR. So is Allen Robinson. If you’re betting on the Rams, you’re betting on Sean McVay’s ability to create strategic advantages with a skeleton crew on offense. You’re also getting a Rams defense without Aaron Donald, which means Los Angeles will enter this game with a bottom-tier pass rush. A bet on the Rams is more of a bet against the Seahawks, on the road, in a divisional game, than a bet on the Rams.

A bet on the Seahawks is a bet on a talented, balanced offense that has benefited from Geno Smith’s fantastic play throughout this season. The Rams will be without Aaron Donald, which gives the Seahawks offensive line a decisive advantage in this contest. If you are betting on the Seahawks, you are building that bet around their offense at least meeting expectations against a depleted Rams defense. The Rams are extraordinarily thin on offense. The nicest thing you could say about that group is Tyler Higbee is a reliable tight end, and Van Jefferson is a very solid third wide receiver.

Unfortunately for Los Angeles, Higbee is the primary option in this passing attack, and Jefferson is the Rams WR1 due to injuries. The Seahawks do not have a talent-rich defense, but they are a scrappy, well-coached group that can reasonably limit what is largely the Rams’ reserves on offense. The question here for Seahawks bettors is can Seattle win by more than a score on the road against a divisional opponent while coming off an overtime loss last week?

Seahawks vs. Rams Pool Picks and Other Bets

Awards Market Ramifications: Geno Smith is the Comeback Player of the Year favorite. Kenneth Walker is the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite. Pete Carroll is a Coach of the Year contender.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be taking Seattle across the board in winner pools, and I’ll be right in line with consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.

Spread Pool: I have limited interest in taking Seattle as a full seven-point road favorite. However, I think you go with Seattle here or pass from a pure football standpoint.

Survivor Pool: Taking the Browns or the Seahawks is a major decision for me in survivor pools this week. The biggest issue I have there is the Seahawks at home against the Panthers is one of, if not the best, play in the format next week.

Ryan’s recent betting record

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 38-22

Props 2022: 39-23

 

WATCH: Seahawks Cinderella Season Coming to an End?

 

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