Green Bay Packers (4-8) at Chicago Bears (3-9)
Opening Spread: Bears +2
Opening Game Total: 42.5
Opening Team Totals: Bears (20.25), Packers (22.25)
Weather: Outdoors, some potential wind concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bears +2.
- This line has moved to Bears +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bears +4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bears +4.5.
- This total opened at 42.5 points.
- This total has moved up to 43.5 points.
Bears: Out: WR Darnell Mooney, CB Kyler Gordon, S Eddie Jackson, S Jaquan Brisker; Questionable: RT Riley Reiff
Packers: Out: LT David Bakhtiari. Doubtful: S Darnell Savage; Questionable: WR Romeo Doubs, LB De’Vondre Campbell
The Bears Offense vs. Packers Defense
The Bears have a bottom-tier offensive line. Green Bay’s front four has moved from a fringe top-ten unit to the fringe of average to below average since Rashan Gary was ruled out for the rest of the season. The Packers still have a mild advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bears are 4-7-1 against the spread this season.
- The Bears are 8-4 on overs this season.
- Justin Fields is 8-14-1 against the spread in his career.
- Justin Fields is 11-12 on overs in his career.
- Matt Eberflus is 4-7-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Matt Eberflus is 8-4 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Bears are scoring 20.9 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- Chicago is last in the league in yards passing per game and first in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Justin Fields is seventh in the league with 834 yards rushing.
- David Montgomery is 25th in the league with 580 yards rushing. Montgomery has four targets in each of his last two games.
- With Darnell Mooney sidelined, Chase Claypool could realistically see significant role expansion. Claypool has five or more targets in two of his four games as a Bear.
- Cole Kmet has four or more targets in each of his last four games. He has at least six targets in three of those contests.
- The Packers have allowed 23.6 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- The Packers held Justin Fields to 20 yards rushing on eight carries back in Week 2.
- Per The Edge, the Packers have allowed the third-most yards rushing per game and the 18th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Green Bay has given up the sixth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Packers have allowed the fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Packers Offense vs. Bears Defense
At full strength, the Packers have a fringe top-ten offensive line. With left tackle David Bakhtiari ruled out, Green Bay has more of a league-average offensive line. The Bears have a bottom-tier defensive front. Even with Bakhtiari out, the Packers have a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Packers are 4-8 against the spread this season.
- The Packers are 6-6 on overs this season.
- Aaron Rodgers is 126-95-4 against the spread in his career.
- Aaron Rodgers is 116-107-2 on overs in his career.
- Matt LaFleur is 36-25 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Matt LaFleur is 29-32 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Packers are scoring 19.6 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- Green Bay is 16th in the league in yards passing per game and 14th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Aaron Jones is seventh among running backs in yards rushing and ninth in yards receiving.
- A.J. Dillon only has 14 total carries over his last two games, while having double-digit carries in each of the previous three games.
- Over his last three games, Christian Watson has six or more targets in each contest. He’s breached 100 yards receiving twice, and he has six total receiving touchdowns.
- Allen Lazard has eight or more targets in five of his last eight games, with double-digit targets in two of his last four games.
- Romeo Doubs could return to action this week.
- Robert Tonyan has 20 yards receiving or fewer in each of his last three games.
- The Bears have allowed 25.4 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bears have allowed the seventh-most yards rushing per game and the 19th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Chicago has given up the 20th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bears have allowed the sixth-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Bears vs. Packers
It’s a bit of a surprise to see Justin Fields off the injury report, but his return radically increases the ceiling of the Bears’ offense. Before missing last week’s contest against the Jets, Fields had at least 80 yards rushing in five of his previous six games. He’s breached 140 yards rushing in two of those contests. If you’re betting on the Bears you are primarily betting on Chicago having significant success on the ground. That said, it would be supremely logical if Chicago went out of its way to limit the amount of contact that Fields takes as a runner. The Bears have given up 27 or more points in each of their last five games. Your biggest concern as a Bears bettor is that Aaron Rodgers torches Chicago’s injury-ravaged secondary in what could be his last trip to Chicago as a Packer.
A bet on the Packers is a bet on Aaron Rodgers laying siege to what has been a bad Bears defense in recent weeks. The Packers’ offense has been a great disappointment this season, but it’s very obvious when you watch Aaron Rodgers that he still possesses his historic play-making ability. If the wind situation in Chicago begins to trend up from its current forecast, that would be much more of a negative for Green Bay than Chicago. While Rodgers and the offense have taken a lot of the heat this season, Green Bay’s talented defense has underachieved this year. Opposing offenses have run all over the Packers all season. Apart from wind reducing the Packers’ ceiling on offense, your biggest concern as a Packers bettor is Chicago’s ability to exceed expectations offensively despite being run-centric.
If the wind stays in the manageable area, this game has interesting shootout potential. I won’t bet the total directly due to the wind variance, but I am going to play this game as a contrarian option in DFS lineups.
Awards Market Ramifications: None
Winner/Confidence Pool: I will take Green Bay in all of my winner pools unless the wind situation in Chicago becomes more severe. Absent of any significant weather changes, I will be above consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: In ATS pools where you can get the Packers at a better number than -3.5, I have some interest in those situations.
Survivor Pool: Green Bay is an aggressive survivor pool option that I’d be more confident in if wind wasn’t a factor at all in this game.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 38-22
Props 2022: 39-23
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