New York Jets (7-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
Opening Spread: Vikings -3
Opening Game Total: 44
Opening Team Totals: Vikings (23.5), Jets (20.5)
The Line Report
- This line opened at Vikings -3, moving Vikings up to -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Vikings -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Vikings -3.
- This total opened at 44-points and has moved to 45.5 points.
Vikings: Out: LT Christian Darrisaw
Jets: Doubtful: RB Michael Carter; Questionable: LT Duane Brown
The Vikings Offense vs. Jets Defense
At full strength the Vikings have a fringe top-ten offensive line. Minnesota will be without its best linemen this week with left tackle Christian Darrisaw on the shelf for the second game in a row. Without Darrisaw, the Vikings are a backside of average offensive line. This is important because the Jets have a top-ten level defensive front. Given Darrisaw’s absence, the Jets have a significant advantage in the trenches against Minnesota.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Vikings are 5-5-1 against the spread this season.
- On overs this season the Vikings are 6-5.
- Kirk Cousins is 68-66-2 against the spread in his career.
- On overs in his career, Cousins is 79-56-1.
- Kevin O’Connell is 5-5-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- On overs in his career, O’Connell is 6-5 as an NFL head coach.
- The Vikings are scoring 23.8 points per game, good for 12th in the league.
- Minnesota is seventh in the league in yards passing per game and 26th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Dalvin Cook is sixth in the league in yards rushing with 841.
- Cook has five or more targets in four of their last five games.
- Justin Jefferson is third in the league in receptions (81), second in yards receiving (1,232), seventh in target share (28.5%), eighth in air yards share (41.4%).
- Adam Thielen has seven or more targets in nine of his 11 games this season.
- Thielen has only breached 70 yards receiving once this year with a 19.7% target share and a 28.1% air yards share.
- K.J. Osborn has a 12.4% target share and a 14.7% air yards share.
- T.J. Hockenson has nine or more targets in three of his four games as a Viking. Last week, Hockenson had six targets against the Patriots.
- The Jets have allowed 17.8 points per game, which is fourth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 19th-most yards rushing per game and the seventh-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the second-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jets have allowed the 11th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Jets Offense vs. Vikings Defense
Multiple opening day starters are missing on the Jets’ offensive line, making this current group a slightly below average unit. While, the Vikings have a fringe top-ten defensive front and defensive lineman Dalvin Tomlinson is off the injury report after missing a month. A moderate advantage in the trenches for the Vikings, while their pair of edge rushers could be a real problem for the Jets’ reserve tackles.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jets are 7-4 against the spread this season.
- On overs this season, the Jets are 4-7.
- Mike White is 2-3 against the spread in his career.
- On overs in his career, White is 5-0.
- Robert Saleh is 13-15 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- On overs in his career, Saleh is 14-14 as an NFL head coach.
- The Jets are scoring 20.9 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- New York is 21st in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing.
- In his first start of the season, Mike White threw for 315 yards passing and three scores against the Bears’ bottom-tier defense last week.
- Mike White threw eight interceptions over his four appearances last season, and he’s currently -205 on DraftKings, to throw an interception against the Vikings this week.
- While Michael Carter is trending towards missing this contest, we can reasonably expect Zonovan Knight to take on the bulk of the carries, in addition to Ty Johnson seeing most of the passing game work with some supplemental rushing attempts.
- After being a healthy scratch last week, James Robinson could mix in as a runner, as well.
- Per the Edge, Garrett Wilson led the team with a 28.6% target share and a 32.6% air yards share.
- Elijah Moore had a 7.1% target share with a 22.4% air yards share, where he caught his two targets for 64 yards receiving and a score.
- Corey Davis, Tyler Conklin, and C.J. Uzomah each had a 10.7% target share last week.
- The Vikings have allowed 23.4 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Vikings have allowed the 26th-most yards rushing per game and the fifth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Minnesota has given up the most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Not to mention, Minnesota has also given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the sixth-most to those lined up in the slot.
- The Vikings have allowed the 15th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Vikings vs. Jets
A bet on the Vikings is a bet on a talented roster that’s exceeding expectations at 9-2. Kirk Cousins shredded the Patriots on Thanksgiving night last week, where Minnesota’s talented offense has now scored 30 or more points for the third time in their last five games. This week they get a top-five Jets defense that hasn’t given up 30-points since Week 2 against the Browns. If you’re betting on the Vikings, you’re primarily betting on more of a solid, turnover free offensive effort than a ceiling outcome in this matchup.
This game largely boils down to the play of Jets’ quarterback Mike White, who shredded a below average Bears’ defense last week. The Vikings’ pass rush could have a significant impact in this contest, and White has been a turnover-friendly quarterback to this point in his career.
What you’re looking for as a Vikings bettor is that solid offensive effort that we just discussed, paired with an impactful game from Minnesota’s pass rush while White and the Jets’ injury-reduced backfield turn the ball over a few times. Your primary concern as a Vikings bettor is that their secondary continues to get beat in the air, and the Jets’ high-quality pass rush and secondary limit the Vikings’ dangerous offense.
A bet on the Jets is primarily a bet on their high-performing defense. The Jets’ defensive front has a significant advantage in the trenches, and their secondary has the tools to reduce opportunities for Justin Jefferson and the Vikings’ talented skill group. As Vikings fans no doubt know, Kirk Cousins can play with anyone when he’s on, but he has a few ugly games every year. The Jets’ pass defense has the potential to force one of those ugly games. Your primary concern as a Jets bettor is the uncertainty of their offense.
The Jets’ offensive line and backfield have both been reduced by injuries. Further, we should have limited expectations for their run game. That leaves us with Mike White, who was great against the Bears last week. White raises the ceiling of the Jets’ passing attack; however he has been a turnover-prone quarterback in his young career.
If White plays a clean game and is able to exploit a shredded Vikings’ pass defense, the Jets are in great position this week. If White has more of a middling effort against a good Vikings’ pass rush, where he turns the ball over a few times, that type of outcome is your biggest concern as a Jets bettor.
Awards Market Ramifications: Robert Saleh and Kevin O’Connell are both Coach of the Year candidates. Garrett Wilson is a rising Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Sauce Gardner is the current Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite.
Winner/Confidence Pool: Consequently, I will get exposure to both of these teams in winner pools, but I will be Vikings-heavy in that format. I expect to be either right in line, or slightly below, consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m considering a play on the Vikings where I can get them at a good price. I will pass on Vikings -3.5.
Survivor Pool: I was considering the Vikings in certain survivor pools this week. However I’m going to pass on this contest in that format with Christian Darrisaw sidelined.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 38-22
Props 2022: 39-23