Betting
12/3/22
13 min read
NFL Week 13 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions For Every Game
The Week 13 slate might be the most interesting collection of NFL games this season.
We have two marquee matchups in the Dolphins-49ers and Chiefs-Bengals. We have a number of contests between potential playoff teams in Titans-Eagles, Commanders-Giants, and Jets-Vikings. On top of that, we also have Deshaun Watson’s return to NFL action in what should be a very hostile environment against his former team in Houston. There’s also a chance this could be Aaron Rodgers’ last stand against the Chicago Bears.
As always I write up every game, every week, where you’ll find active links to each of my betting previews along with a summary for each game below. The full write-up for the Monday night game will be available at some point on Sunday.
Titans (7-4) at Eagles (10-1)
- Opening Spread: Eagles -5.5
- Opening Game Total: 44
- Opening Team Totals: Eagles (24.75), Titans (19.25)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Eagles -5.5
- This line has moved down to Eagles -4.5
- This total opened at 44-points
- This total has moved slightly up to 44.5-points
The Bottom Line
The Eagles have the league’s best roster, while Mike Vrabel’s Titans routinely exceed expectations. The Eagles' defensive front has a major advantage in the trenches in this matchup. Philadelphia’s secondary is also well equipped to limit opportunities against the Titans' average, at absolute best, collection of pass catchers. Those are your biggest concerns if you’re considering the Titans as a +5 underdog. On our Player Prop Happy Hour show I took Jalen Hurts’ over passing yards, with the expectation that a well-coached team like the Titans will stay disciplined with their pass rush to force Hurts to beat them with his arm instead of his legs.
Browns (4-7) at Texans (1-9-1)
- Opening Spread: Texans +7
- Opening Game Total: 46
- Opening Team Totals: Texans (19.5), Browns (26.5)
- Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Texans +7
- This line has moved to Texans +6.5 and then back up to Texans +7.5
- This total opened at 46 points
- This total has moved to 47.5 points
The Bottom Line
I first said it on Betting the NFL this Monday: Deshaun Watson’s return game is the Texans' Super Bowl this season. While we can expect maximum effort out of the Texans in front of what should be a fired-up Houston crowd, their path to victory from a football sense is quite narrow. I discuss that narrow path at length in this betting preview, as this game has tremendous ramifications in survivor pools this week.
Jaguars (4-7) at Lions (4-7)
- Opening Spread: Lions -1.5
- Opening Game Total: 52
- Opening Team Totals: Lions (26.75), Jaguars (25.25)
- Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Lions -1.5
- This line has moved between Lions -1 and Lions +.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Lions +.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Lions +1
- This total opened at 52 points
- This total has moved slightly down to 51.5 points
The Bottom Line
On a main slate that has Joe Burrow against Patrick Mahomes along with the loaded offenses of Miami and San Francisco squaring off, Jaguars at Lions could end up being the highest-scoring game this weekend. I’m going to stay away from betting this game directly as I view it as a true coin flip, but I did tail Josh Larky’s bet on Christian Kirk during our Player Prop Happy Hour show.
Jets (7-4) at Vikings (9-2)
- Opening Spread: Vikings -3
- Opening Game Total: 44
- Opening Team Totals: Vikings (23.5), Jets (20.5)
- Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened at Vikings -3, moving Vikings up to -3.5
- This total opened at 44-points and has moved to 45.5 points.
The Bottom Line
Mike White was exceptional in his 2022 debut last week, breaching 300 yards in the air to go with three passing touchdowns against the Bears' bottom-tier defense. While that’s no doubt encouraging news for the Jets' struggling offense, I haven’t forgotten that White threw eight interceptions across his four appearances last season. With just one game under his belt this season, we should be treating White as more of a volatile quarterback than a savior for betting purposes. Since I’d have to take on unacceptable -205 juice to bet on White to throw an interception in this contest, the Vikings -3 are in my pool of options in ATS tournaments this weekend.
Steelers (4-7) at Falcons (5-7)
- Opening Spread: Falcons -1.5
- Opening Game Total: 42
- Opening Team Totals: Falcons (21.75), Steelers (20.25)
- Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Falcons -1.5
- This line has moved between Falcons -1 to Falcons +.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Falcons -1.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Falcons +1
- This total opened at 42-points
- This total has moved down to 41.5 points
The Bottom Line
I’ve bet on or against the Steelers in each game they’ve played since T.J. Watt’s return a couple of weeks ago. I’ve hit all of those bets to this point, and I’m going to back the semi-surging Steelers again this week as a slight road underdog in Atlanta. I also bet on Pat Freiermuth to exceed 48 yards receiving during our Player Prop Happy Hour show.
Broncos (3-8) at Ravens (7-4)
- Opening Spread: Ravens -8
- Opening Game Total: 38.5
- Opening Team Totals: Ravens (23.25), Broncos (15.25)
- Weather: Outdoors, no concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Ravens -8
- This line has moved down to Ravens -7.5
- This total opened at 38.5 points
- This total remains at 38.5 points
The Bottom Line
The Ravens are coming off a rough loss to the Jaguars last week as Lamar Jackson is forced to continue carrying one of the thinner skill position groups in the NFL. Baltimore’s defense has been improving in recent weeks, but it is still far from the stifling Ravens' defense many of us grew up with. Baltimore gets the freefalling Broncos this week in a potential “get right” spot, especially for the Ravens' defense. The Broncos are on my short list of teams I won’t bet on going forward after getting semi-blown out by Sam Darnold’s Panthers last week, but I’m not in a hurry to bet at this juncture on this Ravens team beating anyone by more than a score.
Commanders (7-5) at Giants (7-4)
- Opening Spread: Giants +1.5
- Opening Game Total: 40.5
- Opening Team Totals: Giants (19.5), Commanders (21)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Giants +1.5
- This line has moved to Giants +2.5
- This total opened at 40.5 points
- This total remains at 40.5 points
The Bottom Line
This is an NFC East showdown between two teams with highly capable defenses and volatile offenses. After their loss to the Lions a couple of weeks ago I said to Josh Larky that the Giants are in danger of losing out through the rest of the season. Washington has a better roster than the Giants, and the Commanders' defense has been among the best in the league over the last month and a half. If the Giants lose this game, they are in genuine danger of not making the playoffs after a 7-2 start, with a real chance of losing every game left on the schedule.
Packers (4-8) at Bears (3-9)
- Opening Spread: Bears +2
- Opening Game Total: 42.5
- Opening Team Totals: Bears (20.25), Packers (22.25)
- Weather: Outdoors, some potential wind concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bears +2
- This line has moved to Bears +3.5
- This total opened at 42.5 points
- This total has moved up to 43.5 points
The Bottom Line
This could be the last time that Aaron Rodgers’ Packers face the Chicago Bears. Justin Fields is off the Bears injury report, which gives this game some interesting shootout potential. However, we should expect 15-20 mph winds with 30 mph gusts in this contest. Outside of severe cold and torrential downpour-level rain or snow, wind is the only weather element that I really care about from a betting perspective. These types of wind levels are right in the area where they can start to impact a game, especially if these reports start trending up before kickoff. I’m going to stay away from the game total due to that variable, but I am going to take Allen Lazard over receiving props once they are released with the expectation that they will come out in the mid-40s.
Chiefs (9-2) at Bengals (7-4)
- Opening Spread: Bengals +2.5
- Opening Game Total: 52
- Opening Team Totals: Bengals (24.75), Chiefs (27.25)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bengals +2.5
- This line has moved down to Bengals +1.5
- This total opened at 52-points
- This total has moved slightly up to 52.5 points
The Bottom Line
Joe Burrow’s Bengals vs. Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs is becoming one of the better rivalries in the league. While I expect this to be a one-score game, I took the Bengals in this spot as they need this game more than the Chiefs do. During our Player Prop Happy Hour show, Ben Wolby mentioned his interest in Tyler Boyd overs once they release. I will be looking for those as well, with the expectation that they come out in the mid-to-low 40s for receiving yards with a receptions line set at 3.5. If the receptions line comes out at 2.5 with -120 or less juice, that’s an auto bet for me against a Chiefs' defense that has struggled against slot receivers.
Dolphins (8-3) at 49ers (7-4)
- Opening Spread: San Francisco -3.5
- Opening Game Total: 46.5
- Opening Team Totals: 49ers (25), Dolphins (21.5)
- Weather: Outdoors, rain expected
The Line Report
- This line opened between 49ers -3.5 and 49ers -4
- This line has settled at 49ers -3.5
- This total opened at 46.5-points
- This total remains at 46.5-points
The Bottom Line
This is a Sunday Night Football flex-worthy contest between two of the most interesting teams in the league. As I mentioned on Betting the NFL, this line opened with the Dolphins as +4 underdogs and it’s largely stayed there. Oddsmakers are effectively inviting action on the Dolphins in a very high-interest game. Those situations always give me pause, to the point I begin my process in these situations by trying to find out why oddsmakers are taking that kind of stance. I found the football reason behind this line, which makes this game a stay away for me against the spread.
Seahawks (6-5) at Rams (3-8)
- Opening Spread: Rams +5
- Opening Game Total: 42
- Opening Team Totals: Rams (18.5), Seahawks (23.5)
- Weather: Hybrid stadium, no concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Rams +5
- This line has moved to Rams +7.5
- This total opened at 42 points
- This total has moved slightly down to 41.5 points
The Bottom Line
On Betting the NFL Chris Farley suggested that I take the Seahawks in my live entry in DraftKings' $1.2 million survivor pool instead of the Browns. Chris is a sharp guy and that was smart advice, as the Rams are starting John Wolford at quarterback, and they will be without future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald this week. Seattle is coming off a loss and is currently on the outside looking in when it comes to NFC playoff seeding. Seattle is a highly motivated team against an injury-ravaged Rams squad that is among the most disappointing defending champs in recent memory. That said, I don’t exactly have a ton of faith in the Seahawks against a divisional opponent on the road, and they were my planned play at home against the Panthers next week. Decisions, decisions.
Chargers (6-5) at Raiders (4-7)
- Opening Spread: Raiders +2.5
- Opening Game Total: 50.5
- Opening Team Totals: Raiders (24), Chargers (26.5)
- Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Raiders +2.5
- This line has moved all the way to Raiders -2.5
- This total opened at 50.5 points
- This total has moved down to 49.5 points
The Bottom Line
At first glance, I like the Chargers here as a slight road favorite against the Raiders. Sadly, we can add the Chargers' center and right tackle to the list of difference-making inactives for Los Angeles. I still lean toward the Chargers as the Raiders are coming off back-to-back overtime wins and aren’t exactly a model of consistency. But the Chargers' injury situation here gives me considerable pause. I have not seen Zamir White rushing lines yet, but given Josh Jacobs' injury situation, I’m looking for White’s over rushing yards to be released in the 8-12 range. If that happens I’ll place a bet on that.
SNF: Colts (4-7-1) at Cowboys (8-3)
- Opening Spread: Cowboys -9.5
- Opening Game Total: 43.5
- Opening Team Totals: Cowboys (26.5), Colts (17)
- Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cowboys -9.5
- This line has moved to Cowboys -10.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Cowboys -11.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Cowboys -10.5
- This total opened at 43.5 points
- This total remains at 43.5 points
The Bottom Line
The Colts have lost five of their last six games. Now they get the Cowboys on the road in primetime as +10.5 underdogs. The Cowboys’ pass rush will have a considerable advantage in the trenches against a stationary quarterback in Matt Ryan. That element of this contest is why I haven’t bet the Colts as significant underdogs. I’m currently leaning towards passing on this contest, as there is a very clear path to the Cowboys' defense forcing multiple turnovers while their pass rush ends several drives prematurely.
MNF: Saints (4-8) at Buccaneers (5-6)
The Bottom Line
Tom Brady’s Buccaneers have struggled against the Saints' pass rush since Brady made the switch from New England to Tampa Bay. Tampa will be without right tackle Tristan Wirfs, which is a problem against the Saints' strong front. I’m going to stay away from this one against the spread, but I made a regression-driven bet on Mike Evans’ over receiving yards on our Player Prop Happy Hour show.
WATCH: Top 15 Player Props for Week 13
