Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
Opening Spread: Bengals +2.5
Opening Game Total: 52
Opening Team Totals: Bengals (24.75), Chiefs (27.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bengals +2.5.
- This line has moved down to Bengals +1.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bengals +1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bengals +2.
- This total opened at 52-points.
- This total has moved slightly up to 52.5 points.
Bengals: Out: CB Chidobe Awuzie; Questionable: RB Joe Mixon, WR Ja’Marr Chase, DT DJ Reader
Chiefs Out: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Mecole Hardman; Questionable: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Kadarius Toney
The Bengals Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
The Bengals’ offensive line has been steadily improving after a rocky start, as they are now on the average-to-below average fringe. The Chiefs have a fringe top-10 front. Kansas City has a mild advantage in the trenches, while Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones has a significant individual edge in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bengals are 8-3 against the spread this season.
- The Bengals are 4-6-1 on overs this season.
- Joe Burrow is 23-14 against the spread in his career.
- Joe Burrow is 18-17-2 on overs in his career.
- Zac Taylor is 33-27 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Zac Taylor is 27-31-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Bengals are scoring 25.9 points per game, good for fifth in the league.
- Cincinnati is third in the league in yards passing per game and 27th in yards rushing.
- The Bengals are throwing on 66% of their snaps and running on 34%, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Joe Mixon is 18th among running backs in yards rushing and seventh in yards receiving.
- Ja’Marr Chase has a 27.7% target share and a 36.8% air yards share.
- Tee Higgins has a 20% target share and a 30.7% air yards share.
- Tyler Boyd has a 14.7% target share and a 20.3% air yards share.
- Hayden Hurst has a 14.7% target share and a 10.1% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Ja’Marr Chase has played 341 snaps on the perimeter and 99 in the slot.
- Tee Higgins has played 383 snaps on the perimeter and 100 in the slot.
- Tyler Boyd has played 107 snaps on the perimeter and 466 in the slot.
- Hayden Hurst has played 275 snaps as an in-line tight end, 72 on the perimeter, and 107 in the slot.
- The Chiefs have allowed 22.1 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chiefs have allowed the 23rd-most yards rushing per game and the third-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Kansas City has given up the seventh-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Kansas City has given up the third-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Chiefs have allowed the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Chiefs have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Chiefs Offense vs. Bengals Defense
The Chiefs have a top-10 offensive line with one of the very best interior groups in the league. Cincinnati has a slightly below average front. That said, the Bengals have a high-quality pass rusher in defensive end Trey Hendrickson along with an interior duo that is very stout against the run. The Chiefs have a moderate edge in the trenches in this contest, though Hendrickson has an individual advantage on the outside.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chiefs are 5-6 against the spread this season.
- The Chiefs are 5-6 on overs this season.
- Patrick Mahomes is 39-33-2 against the spread in his career.
- Patrick Mahomes is 39-34-1 on overs in his career.
- Andy Reid is 195-162-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Andy Reid is 178-175-11 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- The Chiefs are scoring 29.6 points per game, which is the best in the league.
- Kansas City is first in the league in yards passing per game and 19th in yards rushing.
- The Chiefs are throwing on 70% of their snaps and running on 30%, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, over the past three weeks No. 251 overall pick Isiah Pacheco is the Chiefs’ primary ball carrier. Over that span Pacheco has a range of 15 to 22 carries and a range of 69 to 107 yards rushing. Pacheco has one target over these three contests.
- Jerrick McKinnon has six or more targets in three of his last four games. McKinnon has 10 total carries over that span.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has a 17.1% target share and a 19% air yards share.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a 12.5% target share and a 21.6% air yards share.
- Skyy Moore has five receptions on six targets in each of his last two games.
- Kadarius Toney has been rarely available this season, but when he is he is an impact player. In Toney’s second game as a Chief, he had 57 yards receiving and a touchdown along with 33 yards rushing.
- Travis Kelce is sixth in the league in receptions (73), sixth in yards receiving (912), and he’s the leader in receiving touchdowns (12). Kelce is third among tight ends in target share (24.7%) and air yards share (23.7%).
- The Bengals have allowed 21 points per game, which is 13th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bengals have allowed the 21st-most yards rushing per game and the 14th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Cincinnati has given up the 26th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bengals have allowed the 12th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Bengals vs. Chiefs
Last season the Bengals beat the Chiefs 34-31 in Week 17 of the regular season. Joe Burrow threw for 446 yards and four scores while Ja’Marr Chase had 266 yards receiving and three scores. Cincinnati then came from behind in the AFC Championship to beat the Chiefs on the road, in overtime, 27-24. The Bengals had a far more balanced offensive showing in this contest. The Chiefs are currently the top seed in the AFC while all but locking up an AFC West crown. The Bengals and Ravens are in a very tight divisional race. Both teams are motivated, but the Bengals need a win more than the Chiefs do.
A bet on the Bengals is a bet on Burrow and his talented collection of skill position players. Despite being without Chase for a month, the Bengals are 5-1 over their last six games. Chase is trending towards making his return for this contest, but we should expect him to be on a pitch count even if he is active. Mixon missed last week’s contest and remains on the injury report as of Thursday evening. If you’re betting on the Bengals in this matchup, you’re going to want to keep a close eye on Cincinnati’s injury report. Burrow is one of those guys that can beat anyone, but you want as many hands on deck as possible if you’re betting against Patrick Mahomes. The Bengals have a rock-solid defense that consistently exceeds expectations, but they have a very tall order in front of them with the Chiefs. Your biggest concern as a Bengals bettor is that Cincinnati’s defense simply doesn’t hold up against the current MVP favorite Mahomes.
A bet on the Chiefs is always a bet on Mahomes and Andy Reid’s offense. I’ve been saying it for many weeks now: I’d argue that Mahomes is having his best season this year. Kansas City has won five games in a row and seven of its last eight. They’ve done that against the league’s most difficult schedule. While Mahomes’ offense drives the bus, the Chiefs’ defense has given up 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games. So, while you’re primarily betting on Mahomes as a Chiefs bettor, Kansas City’s defense has been playing well of late. Additionally, the Chiefs’ defense has a mild advantage in the trenches in this contest. Your biggest concern as a Chiefs bettor is that Burrow’s Bengals are a similar adversary for Kansas City as Justin Herbert’s Chargers. Not only is Burrow capable of beating the Chiefs, but you’re most likely looking at a close game here where the last superstar quarterback with the ball wins.
Awards Market Ramifications: Mahomes is the MVP favorite. With a win, Burrow will enter the MVP conversation. Travis Kelce is an Offensive Player of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m treating this game as a true coin flip, so I will have exposure to both of these teams in winner pools. I’ll be lower than consensus on this matchup in my confidence pool rankings, as I intend to rank this game right at the bottom.
Spread Pool: I’m going to take the Bengals as a slight underdog this week.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 38-22
Props 2022: 39-23
WATCH MORE: All Eyes on Bengals’ Defense