Opening Spread: Raiders +2.5.
Opening Game Total: 50.5.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Raiders +2.5.
- This line has moved all the way to Raiders -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Raiders +1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Raiders -1.
- This total opened at 50.5 points.
- This total has moved down to 49.5 points.
Raiders: Questionable: RB Josh Jacobs, DT Andrew Billings, LB Denzel Perryman.
The Raiders Offense vs. Chargers Defense
The Raiders have a below-average offensive line. At full strength, the Chargers have a top-ten-level defensive front, but they have been without difference-maker Joey Bosa for most of the season. The Chargers currently have a below-average defensive front. Neither side has a notable advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Raiders are 5-6 against the spread this season.
- The Raiders are 6-4-1 on overs this season.
- Derek Carr is 66-70-2 against the spread in his career.
- Derek Carr is 72-61-5 on overs in his career.
- Josh McDaniels is 18-21 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Josh McDaniels is 20-18-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Raiders are scoring 24.1 points per game, good for tenth in the league.
- Las Vegas is eighth in the league in yards passing per game and 13th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, after a monster Week 12 Josh Jacobs now leads the league in yards rushing with 1159 yards. Jacobs is fourth in the league in rushing touchdowns with nine and he’s fifth among running backs in yards receiving.
- Davante Adams is seventh in the league in receptions (71), fourth in yards receiving (999), tied for second in receiving touchdowns (10), the leader in target share (32.1%), and seventh in air yards share (41.6%).
- Adams has double-digit targets in each of his last four games with a total of 55 targets over that span.
- Mack Hollins has five or more targets in four of his last five games.
- Foster Moreau has at least four targets in all but one of his eight games this year.
- The Chargers have allowed 25.6 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chargers have allowed the second-most yards rushing per game and the 26th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Los Angeles has given up the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Chargers have allowed the fourth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Chargers have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
The Chargers Offense vs. Raiders Defense
At full strength, the Chargers have a top-ten offensive line. This group has been without stud left tackle Rashawn Slater for most of the season, and now they are down high-quality center Corey Linsley and starting right tackle Trey Pipkins III. Given all these injuries the Chargers have a below-average offensive line. Entering the season, the Raiders had one of the best Edge duos in the league. While Maxx Crosby has continued to be one of the NFL’s better pass rushers, Chandler Jones only has half a sack this season. From a macro sense, the Raiders have a below-average front, making this trench matchup a relative draw. The Raiders Edge duo, especially Crosby, have an advantageous matchup against the Chargers’ reserve offensive tackles.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chargers are 7-4 against the spread this season.
- The Chargers are 6-5 on overs this season.
- Justin Herbert is 23-20 against the spread in his career.
- Justin Herbert is 25-18 on overs in his career.
- Brandon Staley is 15-13 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Brandon Staley is 16-12 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Chargers are scoring 22.9 points per game, good for 13th in the league.
- Los Angeles is sixth in the league in yards passing per game and 30th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among running backs Austin Ekeler is 24th in yards rushing and the most yards receiving.
- Since returning to action in Week 11 Keenan Allen has ten receptions on 15 targets for 143 yards receiving and a score over the last two games.
- Josh Palmer has spent his 2022 season filling in for Keenan Allen or Mike Williams. Over his last five games Palmer has double-digit targets in three of them while breaching 100 yards receiving twice. Palmer has a 19% target share with a 30.4% air yards share on the season.
- Gerald Everett has a 14% target share and a 14% air yards share. Everett only had six targets over his last two games.
- Per TruMedia, Keenan Allen has played 60 snaps on the perimeter and 85 in the slot.
- Josh Palmer has played 410 snaps on the perimeter and 150 in the slot.
- Gerald Everett has played 215 snaps as an inline tight end, 47 on the perimeter, and 141 in the slot.
- The Raiders have allowed 25.1 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 17th-most yards rushing per game and the second-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Las Vegas has given up the ninth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Las Vegas has given up the ninth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Raiders have allowed the 14th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Raiders have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the fifth-most to those lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Raiders vs. Chargers
The Chargers beat the Raiders 24-19 on opening day. For this contest, the Chargers opened as -2.5 favorites, and that line has shifted all the way to Raiders -2.5. No team is down more premium talent than the Chargers.
A bet on the Raiders is a bet on two core advantages. The first is that Josh Jacobs is now the league’s rushing leader, and he gets the Chargers barely existent run defense. The Chargers want you to run on them by design, but their run defense is a genuine liability. The Raiders have been without Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller for weeks, which has led to ridiculous usage for Davante Adams. Derek Carr is a good NFL quarterback, but this offense is very reliant on Jacobs and Adams despite entering the season with one of the league’s best skill groups. The second advantage is the Chargers offensive line is down three starters, including both of their offensive tackles. Raiders premium Edge Maxx Crosby and capable veteran Chandler Jones have a plus matchup in this contest. The Raiders front could make a significant impact in this matchup. Your primary concern as a Raiders bettor is the same as any bet against the Chargers: you have to bet against Justin Herbert, who is one of the few true talent elevators in the sport. Your second biggest concern is that Josh Jacobs is banged up to the point it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he didn’t finish this game. Your third concern is that the Raiders have played two overtime games in a row.
A bet on the Chargers is a bet on Justin Herbert carrying this offense despite being down three starters on the offensive line and Mike Williams. Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen are both difference-making skill position players, but at the end of the day, Justin Herbert carries this team. On the plus side, the Chargers are still in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race so we can expect them to be highly motivated. You have two major concerns as a Chargers bettor. The first is that being down both of your offensive tackles and your center is a nightmare scenario as far as offensive line play goes. Facing Maxx Crosby is a major concern for Chargers bettors, but this is also an opportunity for Chandler Jones to make an impact in an otherwise disappointing season. Your second biggest concern is that Los Angeles gets creamed on the ground virtually every week and they now draw the league’s rushing leader in Josh Jacobs.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: In more casual winner pools the Chargers are going to be a far more popular selection than the Raiders. In those environments, I’m going to take the Raiders in winner pools as a rare contrarian favorite. I’m going to rank this game as low as I reasonably can in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: My immediate instinct in this game was to lean towards the Chargers, but their injury situation is massive. I will now either take the Raiders side or pass in this contest. I’m planning on passing at this juncture.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 38-22
Props 2022: 39-23