Betting

NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Day Games Betting Preview

Thanksgiving games betting

Below you’ll find links to each of my betting previews for the three Thanksgiving Day games, along with a shortened summary for each matchup. I’m going to take a few props and play a teaser related to the slate. The link for each matchup will take you to my betting preview for that game.

Bills (7-3) at Lions (4-6)

  • Opening Spread: Lions +9
  • Opening Game Total: 54
  • Opening Team Totals: Lions (22.5), Bills (31.5)
  • Weather: Dome

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Lions +9
  • This line has moved between Lions +9.5 to Lions +10
  • This total opened at 54 points
  • This total has moved slightly down to 53.5 points

Bottom Line

Buffalo is a title contender. Josh Allen could realistically breach 300 yards passing with four touchdowns against the Lions’ bottom-tier defense, while Jared Goff’s offense struggles all day. That could very well be how this contest plays out, but the Bills’ unorthodox travel schedule during the last few days has tempered my enthusiasm. I can’t quite get to the Lions covering from a football standpoint. So right now, I’m going to pass on betting this game directly.

The juice on Stefon Diggs’ overs is too high for me to take, but I leaned that way enough to look. I’m not a big anytime touchdown bettor, but I am going to line shop later today to see if I can find some significant market value on a Dawson Knox anytime touchdown. I like Knox far more than I usually do in this matchup. Every other line I’ve seen related to this game has been right in the area I expected. 

Giants (7-3) at Cowboys (7-3)

  • Opening Spread: Cowboys -9
  • Opening Game Total: 44.5
  • Opening Team Totals: Cowboys (26.75), Giants (17.75)
  • Weather: Dome

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Cowboys -9
  • This line has moved to Cowboys -9.5
  • This total opened at 44.5 points
  • This total remains at 44.5 points

Bottom Line

How is the Giants’ limited offense, with four of their five offensive linemen on the early injury report, going to play effectively against the Cowboys’ pass rush? That’s the big question you must ask yourself if you’re considering a Giants’ bet. Micah Parsons didn’t have a sack against the Giants when they played each other earlier this season.

But, he wreaked havoc all night in that contest. With the expectation the Giants will have to play from behind in this matchup, I’m taking Parsons over .75 sacks at -110. I could also see Daniel Jones being forced to run more often than he normally is in this contest, but I may get my exposure to that outcome in DFS lineups.

Patriots (6-4) at Vikings (8-2)

  • Opening Spread: Vikings -3
  • Opening Game Total: 42.5
  • Opening Team Totals: Vikings (22.75), Patriots (19.75)
  • Weather: Dome

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Vikings -3
  • This line has moved down to Vikings -2.5
  • This total opened at 42.5 points
  • This total remains at 42.5 points

Bottom Line

This game is a classic bounce-back spot for the Vikings against a potential letdown spot for the Patriots coming off an emotional win. But then, you have to factor the Bill Belichick element into this equation, which gums up this otherwise appealing spot.

Instead of betting on this game directly, I’m taking Jakobi Meyers over 4.5 receptions at plus odds and Adam Thielen over 3.5 receptions at -105, both on DraftKings as of this writing. The Thielen play is based on the expectation Belichick tries to make the Vikings play “left-handed” by throwing different looks at Justin Jefferson all night. With Meyers, he’s the primary option in this passing attack, and he has a sneaky solid matchup against Minnesota based explicitly on his deployment.

I am also interested in T.J. Hockenson’s over-receptions, given his current volume. But, after last week’s protection freefall against Dallas and left tackle Christian Darrisaw being sidelined, Hockenson could realistically be left in to block more often. So, I’m going to pass there. Dalvin Cook could exceed expectations here, but I’ll get my exposure to that stance in DFS this week.

Instead of playing any of these games directly against the spread, I’ve taken them with a small bet in a three-leg, 10-point teaser: Bills Pick’Em, Cowboys +.5, Vikings +7.5.

May your bets hit while you enjoy your day of feasting and football!

WATCH MORE: Why Dallas Isn’t a Super Bowl Contender

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