Betting
11/25/22
7 min read
NFL Week 12 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Texans at Dolphins
Houston Texans (1-8-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-3)
Opening Spread: Dolphins -12.
Opening Game Total: 46.
Opening Team Totals: Dolphins (29), Texans (17).
Weather: Outdoors, no concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Dolphins -12.
- Dolphins' line has moved up to -14.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Dolphins -13.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Dolphins -13.5.
- This total opened at 46 and moved down slightly to 45.5.
The Dolphins Offense vs. Texans Defense
First off, the Dolphins are led by premium left tackle Terron Armstead, giving them a league-average offensive line. Even so, Texans have a bottom-tier front four. Miami’s offensive line has a moderate advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes: Per TruMedia
- The Dolphins are 5-5 against the spread this season.
- On overs this season, the Dolphins are at 5-5.
- Tua Tagovailoa is 19-11-1 against the spread in his career.
- On overs in his career, Tagovailoa is 13-18.
- Mike McDaniel is 5-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- For overs in his career, McDaniel is at 5-5 as an NFL head coach.
Dolphins Offense
- The Dolphins are scoring 25.2 points per game, good for seventh in the league.
- Miami is second in the league in yards passing per game and 27th in rushing yards.
- Running back Raheem Mostert is trending toward missing this contest. If he does, Jeff Wilson is in a potential smash spot.
- Per the Edge, in just his second game as a Dolphin, Jeff Wilson had 17 carries for 119 yards rushing and a score with five targets against the Browns in Week 10.
- Tyreek Hill leads the league in receptions (81), and yards receiving (1,148), he’s fourth in target share (30.9%), and he’s seventh in air yards share (42.1%).
- Jaylen Waddle has 51 receptions, 878 yards receiving, a 21.6% target share, and a 28.5% air yards share. Waddle leads the Dolphins in receiving touchdowns with six.
- Mike Gesicki has a 10.2% target share with a 9.3% air yards share.
Texans Defense
- The Texans, whom are 18th in the league, have allowed 23 points per game.
- Per The Edge, the Texans have allowed the most yards rushing per game and the 20th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Houston has given up the 25th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Texans have allowed the 12th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Texans Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
In recent weeks the Texans' line has been underachieving in recent weeks. Thus, pushing them into slightly below-average territory. A few weeks ago, the Dolphins' defensive front was upgraded by the addition of Bradley Chubb. On the other hand, Miami has a solid defensive front, right in the middle of the pack. Consequently, Miami also has a minor advantage in the trenches against the Texans.
Betting Notes: Per TruMedia
- The Texans are 4-5-1 against the spread this season.
- On overs this season, the Texans' are 4-6.
- Lovie Smith is 86-91-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- On overs in his career, Smith is 86-97-3 as an NFL head coach.
Texans Offense
- The Texans are scoring 15.9 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- Houston is 26th in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing.
- Kyle Allen is taking over at quarterback for the Texans this week.
- Allen is an average to below average backup quarterback.
- Per the Edge, Dameon Pierce’s 780 yards rushing is the seventh most in the league. Pierce has three or more targets in six of his last seven games. You could argue that Pierce has been the Texans best player this season.
- Brandin Cooks has at least five targets in every game he’s played this season. Cooks has yet to breach 100 yards receiving in a game this year.
- Nico Collins has ten receptions on 17 targets over the past two weeks. Collins has fallen just shy of 50 yards receiving in both of those contests.
Dolphins Defense
- The Dolphins have allowed 24.1 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Dolphins have allowed the most yards rushing per game and the most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Miami has given up the most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Dolphins have allowed the most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Dolphins vs. Texans
The Dolphins are an ascending 7-3 team that’s coming off its bye. While the Texans are the worst team in the league and have elected to start Kyle Allen at quarterback for this matchup. Deshaun Watson will return to action next week, which will be a high interest game. Therefore, the Texans will showcase confidence in a natural look-ahead spot.
If You're Betting on the Dolphins
Yet, if you were to tell me that the Miami Dolphins are the most dangerous team in the league, I wouldn’t give you a ton of pushback because they are in the conversation. Tua Tagovailoa is playing at an MVP-caliber level. Miami has the best wide receiver duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. However, I’ll take that a step further by saying that no one in my lifetime has paired two premium speedsters with well rounded skill sets like the Dolphins have in Hill and Waddle.
Besides, if you play cover 2 or cover 4, Hill and Waddle can cream you underneath with YAC. If you don’t play at least two deep, getting burned over the top multiple times is on the table. Miami’s lines on both sides of the ball are getting better. The Dolphins defense in general has a clear path to improvement.
Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins could blow the doors off the Texans in every phase and that’s what you’re betting on if you’re taking Miami in this spot. Furthermore, your biggest concern as a Dolphins bettor is that 14 or more points is a lot to lay in an NFL game. However, the Texans gave a premium roster in the Eagles game earlier this season.
If You're Betting on the Texans
Moreover, Davis Mills is a struggling young quarterback who was a long shot to be the permanent answer in Houston. Additionally, he has more ceiling than new starter Kyle Allen. Therefore, with the Dolphins this week and Deshaun Watson’s return to Houston next week, the shift to Allen is a bizarre move. Lovie Smith and his coaching staff are asking a lot out of Allen here. It’s quite thin, however the change at quarterback gives the stagnant Texans locker room a much-needed jolt.
Additionally, in a best-case scenario that leads to a solid showing against a Dolphins defense, they would be surrendering the 22nd most points per game in the league. The Dolphins offense, on the other hand, is concerning for anyone, much less a Texans team that can’t consistently pressure the quarterback with four men.
One of the biggest concerns as a Texans bettor is that Houston simply cannot handle Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to the point that Miami breaches 40 points. If you’re betting on Houston, I think you’re betting on the Dolphins coming out flat versus anything the Texans expecting to do with consistency.
Awards Market Ramifications: Tyreek Hill is an Offensive Player of the Year contender. Tua Tagovailoa is an MVP candidate. Mike McDaniel is a Coach of the Year contender. Dameon Pierce is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: Therefore, I’m going to take Miami across the board in winner pools and I’ll have them in the top two in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: Accordingly, I bet Miami -12 earlier in the week as I alluded to on Betting the NFL and I expect to take them in at least one of my ATS tournament entries.
Survivor Pool: Although, there are no guarantees in the NFL, but Miami is an excellent option in survivor pools this week.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 35-20
Props 2022: 36-21
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