New Orleans Saints (4-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
Opening Spread: 49ers -8.5
Opening Game Total: 42
Opening Team Totals: 49ers (25.25), Saints (16.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as 49ers -8.5 and remains there.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the 49ers -9.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the 49ers -9.5.
- This total opened at 42 points, moving up to 43.5 points.
The 49ers Offense vs. Saints Defense
To start it off, the 49ers have a fringe top-ten front headlined by elite left tackle Trent Williams. This group also benefits from some of the best offensive play calling in the league. The Saints’ front is a fringe top-ten unit themselves, at full strength. Unfortunately, Payton Turner is out while Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport both remain on the injury report after missing last week’s contest. Given the Saints’ injuries, we have to treat them as more of an average front, which gives the 49ers a minor advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The 49ers are 5-5 against the spread this season.
- On overs this season, the 49ers are 4-6.
- Jimmy Garoppolo is 43-28-1 against the spread in his career.
- On overs in his career, Garroppolo is 37-33-2.
- Kyle Shanahan is 44-46-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Further on overs in his career, Shanahan is at 45-44-2 as an NFL head coach.
- The 49ers are scoring 23.6 points per game, good for 12th in the league.
- San Francisco is 12th in the league in yards passing per game and 12th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Christian McCaffrey has six or more targets in each of his last three games. McCaffrey leads all running backs in yards receiving.
- Since Elijah Mitchell returned to action in Week 10, he’s out-carried McCaffrey in both games with 27 carries to McCaffrey’s 21 over that span.
- This form of load management of load management for McCaffrey makes sense as he’s the best pass-catching running back in the league.
- Deebo Samuel has played in three of the four games since McCaffrey was traded to San Francisco. During that span Deebo has a range of six-to-nine targets with at least one carry in each of those games.
- Brandon Aiyuk has at least 6 targets in three of his last four games. Aiyuk has breached 80 yards receiving in each of those contests where he’s seen six or more targets. Last week when he only saw four targets, he had two touchdown receptions.
- Over the last four games George Kittle has two spike games where he’s exceeded 80 yards receiving, with six targets in one of those contests and nine in the other.
- Per TruMedia, Deebo Samuel has played 279 snaps on the perimeter and 96 in the slot.
- Brandon Aiyuk has played 437 snaps on the perimeter and 114 in the slot.
- The Saints have allowed 24.3 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Saints have allowed the 11th-most yards rushing per game and the third-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New Orleans has given up the 13th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- New Orleans has given up the ninth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Saints have allowed the third-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Saints Offense vs. 49ers Defense
Subsequently, the Saints have a top-ten caliber offensive line at full strength. However, they are down center Erik McCoy, making them more of a fringe top-ten unit. The 49ers have a top-five caliber front when they are at full strength, although they haven’t been at full strength for a couple weeks. Consequently, with Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw sidelined, the 49ers have more of a fringe top-ten front. Neither side has a notable advantage in the trenches for this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Saints are 4-7 against the spread this season.
- On overs this season, the Saints are 6-5.
- Andy Dalton is 81-73-6 against the spread in his career.
- On overs in his career, Dalton is 82-77-1.
- Dennis Allen is 18-28-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- For overs in his career, Allen is 22-24-1 as an NFL head coach.
- The Saints are scoring 22.6 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- New Orleans is eighth in the league in yards passing per game and 15th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Alvin Kamara has at least four targets in every game he’s played this season and he has six or more in five of his nine games. Kamara has at least eight carries in every game, with double-digit carries in six of nine contests.
- Kamara had a massive usage surge after returning from injury that lasted through the whole month of October. His raw opportunities have been significantly reduced over his three November games.
- Chris Olave is 16th in the league in receptions (51), he’s 11th in yards receiving (760), 18th in target share (25.7%), and sixth in air yards share (42.3%).
- Since returning from injury Jarvis Landry has six receptions on ten targets over his last two games. Landry plays the majority of his snaps in the slot and the 49ers have given up the tenth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- Among tight ends Juwan Johnson has the eight most PPR points on the season. Johnson has four or more targets in eight of his eleven games.
- The 49ers have allowed 17.3 points per game, which is third in the league.
- Per The Edge, the 49ers have allowed the fewest yards rushing per game and the 24th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- San Francisco has given up the tenth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The 49ers have allowed the 27th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in 49ers vs. Saints
If You’re Betting on the 49ers
A bet on the 49ers is a bet on a loaded offense paired with a high-end defense that once again looks like a title contender. San Francisco has been far more dangerous since the Christian McCaffrey trade, as its offense is not filled with problematic matchups. If you’re betting on San Francisco, you are betting on their offense to at least meet expectations. The 49ers’ defensive front has been down its two best interior players for weeks, but this defense as a whole has given up 16 or fewer points in each of its last three games. New Orleans is a volatile team, but it is enough talent to keep this contest close. Your biggest concern as a 49ers bettor is that the Saints’ pass rush forces Jimmy Garoppolo into a few bad throws in key spots, while New Orleans’ offense plays a clean game against a difficult opponent.
If You’re A Saints Bettor
A bet on the Saints is a bet on a volatile but talented roster whose 2022 season is a few losses away from being mathematically over. Thankfully for the Saints, Tampa Bay sits on top of this division with a 5-5 record, so New Orleans has a path to competing for the NFC South crown. If you’re betting on New Orleans you are banking on a clean game from Andy Dalton. The Saints’ offense has looked rocky under Dalton in a few nationally televised spots, but I don’t think those that want Winston back at the helm saw his performance against the Panthers back in Week 3. Dalton has been a more stable option at quarterback for the Saints. Your biggest concern as a Saints bettor is that they are playing one of the most talented teams in the league. The 49ers could very realistically shut down the Saints’ offense, where a 30-point game out of San Francisco’s offense wouldn’t be a major surprise.
Awards Market Ramifications: Christian McCaffrey is a Comeback Player of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m taking San Francisco in my winner pools, and I expect to at least be adjacent to consensus on them in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: This is among my least favorite games against the spread this week, as I have no real lean on this contest.
Survivor Pool: I don’t mind the 49ers as a survivor option this week, especially if you didn’t use Buffalo or Dallas on Thursday. With that said they would have been the fifth option for me on the Week 12 slate.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 35-20
Props 2022: 36-21