Analysis
11/26/22
8 min read
NFL Week 12 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions Raiders at Seahawks
Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
Opening Spread: Seahawks -4.
Opening Game Total: 47.5.
Opening Team Totals: Seahawks (25.75), Raiders (21.75).
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Seahawks -4.
- This line has moved to Seahawks -3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Seahawks -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Seahawks -3.5.
- This total opened at 47.5 points.
- This total remains at 47.5 points.
The Seahawks Offense vs. the Raiders Defense
Seattle has a fringe top-ten offensive line, which makes them one of the more surprising position groups this season. The Raiders are on the other side of that spectrum, as they are a below-average front despite having a high-end pair of edge rushers. Seattle has a moderate advantage in the trenches, but the Raiders are still dangerous on the outside.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Seahawks are 6-4 against the spread this season.
- The Seahawks are 5-5 on overs this season.
- Geno Smith is 32-22-2 against the spread in his career.
- Geno Smith is 27-28-1 on overs in his career.
- Pete Carroll is 108-88-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Pete Carroll is 101-99-3 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
Seahawks Offense
- The Seahawks are scoring 25.7 points per game, good for fifth in the league.
- Seattle is 11th in the league in yards passing per game and 13th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Kenneth Walker III is 18th in yards rushing among running backs, and he’s coming off an eight-target game. Remember that Walker didn’t take over the full-time job in Seattle’s backfield until Week 6.
- DK Metcalf has 48 receptions for 581 yards receiving and four touchdowns. Metcalf has a 25.1% target share and a 37.2% air yards share.
- Tyler Lockett has 54 receptions for 640 yards receiving and five touchdowns. Lockett has a 23.1% target share and a 33.7% air yards share.
- Noah Fant has ten targets over his last two games, with a 12.4% target share on the season.
- Will Dissly has two or fewer targets in three of his last five games.
- Per TruMedia, DK Metcalf has played 367 snaps on the perimeter and 81 in the slot.
- Tyler Lockett has played 291 snaps on the perimeter and 167 in the slot.
- Noah Fant has played 210 snaps as an inline tight end, 42 on the perimeter and 84 in the slot.
- Will Dissly has played 296 snaps as an inline tight end, 26 on the perimeter and 44 in the slot.
Raiders Defense
- The Raiders have allowed 24.2 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 15th-most yards rushing per game and the most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Las Vegas has given up the 14th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Las Vegas has given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Raiders have allowed the 13th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Raiders have allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the fifth-most to those lined up in the slot.
The Raiders Offense vs. the Seahawks Defense
The Raiders have a below-average offensive line. The Seahawks have a below-average front, though that group periodically overachieves. This trench matchup is a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Raiders are 4-6 against the spread this season.
- The Raiders are 5-4-1 on overs this season.
- Derek Carr is 65-70-2 against the spread in his career.
- Derek Carr is 71-61-5 on overs in his career.
- Josh McDaniels is 17-21 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Josh McDaniels is 19-18-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Raiders Offense
- The Raiders are scoring 22.5 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- Las Vegas is ninth in the league in yards passing per game and 23rd in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Josh Jacobs' 930 yards rushing is third in the league. Jacobs is eighth among running backs in yards receiving.
- Jacobs was a late addition to this week’s injury report, which could result in him missing this contest. That would be a significant downgrade at running back for Vegas, who has Ameer Abdullah, Brandon Bolden, and rookie Zamir White in reserve.
- Davante Adams is eighth in the league in receptions (64), fourth in yards receiving (925), second in receiving touchdowns (10), the leader in target share (32.3%), and he’s fifth in air yards share (42.5%).
- With Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller sidelined, Adams has 26 receptions on a staggering 44 targets for 413 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns.
- Mack Hollins has six or more targets in three of his last four games.
- Foster Moreau has four or more targets in six of his seven games.
Seahawks Defense
- The Seahawks have allowed 24.1 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Seahawks have allowed the tenth-most yards rushing per game and the fourth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Seattle has given up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Seahawks have allowed the second-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Seahawks have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and those lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Raiders vs. Seahawks
A bet on the Seahawks is a bet on a talented, well-balanced offense that can beat you on the ground or in the air. As long as Geno Smith continues to play at a high level, Seattle is a genuinely dangerous team. The Seahawks are far from the most talented defense, but over the last few years, this unit overachieves multiple times a year. For example, this season, Seattle has given up 21 or fewer points in six of their ten games.
Outside of players on injured reserve, Seattle has a very clean injury report coming off their bye. Seattle is a talented and highly motivated team entering a late-November game very healthy. You have two core concerns as a Seahawks bettor. The first is that Vegas is a very inconsistent team, but Derek Carr’s offense can surge virtually any week. The second is that the Raiders pass rush plays their best game of the season.
A bet on the Raiders is a bet on a team with more concerns than positives. Davante Adams has been going crazy regarding usage and production over the last few weeks due to the Raiders being short Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. Now Josh Jacobs is a late addition to the injury report, which makes his status very uncertain. On top of that, the Raiders defense has given up 23 points or more to every opponent they’ve faced but Denver and Houston this season. Factor in that the Raiders are coming off an overtime game last week, and they are playing their second road game in a row and their fourth in five weeks, and you have all sorts of paths to failure against Seattle.
I didn’t even mention that there are coaching concerns in Vegas to the point that Derek Carr recently mentioned the subject publicly after being pressed. Those are your concerns as a Raiders bettor. If you’re betting on the Raiders, you are betting on Geno Smith’s offense turning into a pumpkin coming off their bye and Derek Carr’s offense at least meeting expectations.
Raiders vs. Seahawks Pool Picks and Other Bets
Awards Market Ramifications: Geno Smith is the Comeback Player of the Year favorite. Kenneth Walker is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender. Tariq Woolen is a Defensive Rookie of the Year contender. Pete Carroll is a Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Seahawks in my winner pools, and I’m going to be higher than consensus on them in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: Seahawks -3.5 is part of my ATS pool of options this week.
Survivor Pool: Seattle would be a very aggressive option in survivor pools. One that I would avoid if possible.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 35-20
Props 2022: 36-21
WATCH MORE: Best Bets NFL Week 12
