Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
Opening Spread: Jaguars +4.
Opening Game Total: 45.5.
Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (20.75), Ravens (24.75).
Weather: Outdoors, strong chance of rain.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jaguars +4.
- Jaguars’ line has moved down to +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Jaguars +3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jaguars +4.
- This total opened at 45.5 points.
- 45.5 points is the total points that remain.
The Jaguars Offense vs. Ravens Defense
First off, the Jaguars have a fringe top-ten offensive line. While on the other hand, the Ravens have a slightly below-average defensive front. Jacksonville’s offensive line has a moderate advantage out in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jaguars are 3-7 against the spread this season.
- This season the Jaguars are 4-6 on overs.
- Trevor Lawrence is 8-19 against the spread in his career.
- On overs, Trevor Lawrence is 9-18 total in his career.
- Doug Pederson is 41-49 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- However, as an NFL head coach, Doug Pederson is 43-17 on overs in his overall career.
- The Jaguars are scoring 21.6 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- Jacksonville is 21st in the league in yards passing per game and seventh in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Travis Etienne is tenth in the league in yards rushing (725) and he’s 17th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Christian Kirk leads the team in target share (24.7%) and air yards share (30.9%).
- Zay Jones has a 21% target share and a 22.4% air yards share.
- Marvin Jones has a 16.1% target share and a 29.5% air yards share.
- Evan Engram has a 15.1% target share and a 15.4% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Christian Kirk has played 168 snaps on the perimeter and 387 in the slot.
- The Ravens have allowed 19.9 points per game, which is tenth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Ravens have allowed the fourth-fewest yards rushing per game and the fifth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Baltimore has given up the sixth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Ravens have given up the sixth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- Tight ends this season have allowed the ninth-fewest yards receiving per game for the Ravens.
The Ravens Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
The Ravens have a top-ten offensive line. The Jaguars have a fringe top-ten defensive front. This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup, where neither side has a notable advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Ravens are 5-5 against the spread this season.
- On overs this season the Ravens are 3-7.
- Lamar Jackson is 36-31-1 against the spread in his career.
- For overall overs in his career, Lamar Jackson is 31-37.
- John Harbaugh is 118-108-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- On overs in his career as an NFL head coach, John Harbaugh is 113-151-1.
- The Ravens are scoring 24.8 points per game, good for ninth in the league.
- Baltimore is 28th in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Lamar Jackson is 14th in the league in yards rushing.
- As a passer Jackson is averaging 197 yards passing per game.
- Kenyan Drake has double-digit carries in four of his last five games.
- Gus Edwards is off the injury report. Edwards has double-digit carries in both of the games he’s played this season.
- Demarcus Robinson has 21 targets over his last three games and is emerging as the Ravens top wide receiver.
- Devin Duvernay has one target in each of his last two games.
- Mark Andrews is off the injury report. Andrews’s 28.8% target share is eighth best in the league and his 35.7% air yards share is 17th. Andrews has double-digit targets in four of his nine games.
- The Jaguars have allowed 20.5 points per game, which is 13th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the tenth-fewest yards rushing per game and the second-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Jacksonville has given up the sixteenth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Jaguars have allowed the eleventh-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Jaguars vs. Ravens
A bet on the Jaguars is a bet on a young team with a former first-overall pick quarterback, a dynamic running back, top-ten-level lines on both sides of the ball and speed in space. The Jaguars might be 3-7, but they are 1-6 in one-score games. Their one loss that wasn’t decided by one possession was a ten-point loss to the Chiefs before last week’s bye. Jacksonville’s pass-catching group lacks a true headliner. Overall this team is more dangerous than their record would indicate. The Ravens offense truly struggled last week against the Panthers. If Baltimore’s offense puts together a similar effort this week, they are going to lose to the Jaguars.
What To Watch For Ravens vs. Jaguars
In fact, Lamar Jackson’s historic rushing ability is always a concern when you bet against Baltimore. Nevertheless, the Ravens defense is my biggest concern as a Jaguars bettor. The Ravens secondary was shredded several times earlier in the year, but with its premium talent in that phase is steadily improving. On top of that, the addition of former Bears linebacker Roquan Smith was a difference-maker in the run game and in space. The Jaguars offense has fallen below expectations in a number of their close losses this season and the Ravens defense is more of an obstacle now than it was early in the year.
Moreover, a bet on the Ravens is a bet on an ascending Ravens defense backed by Lamar Jackson’s ability to carry the Ravens otherwise limited offense. Baltimore spent most of last week’s game against the Panthers tied at 3-3. The Jaguars are a more talented and faster defense than the Panthers. Naturally, this presents a significant challenge for a Ravens offense that lacks playmakers outside of Jackson and Mark Andrews. Jackson struggling against the Jaguars defense in a rainy game is my biggest concern with a Ravens bet.
Awards Market Ramifications: Travon Walker is a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Jacksonville in a number of my winner pools. However, I expect to be lower than the consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will take the Jaguars in my main ATS entry and bet them directly.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 35-20
Props 2022: 36-21
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