Los Angeles Rams (3-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-2)
Opening Spread: Chiefs -14.5.
Opening Game Total: 44.
Opening Team Totals: Chiefs (29.25), Rams (14.75).
Weather: Outdoors, no concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened between Chiefs -14 and Chiefs -14.5.
- This line has moved to Chiefs -15.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Chiefs -15.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chiefs -14.5.
- This total opened at 44 points.
- This total has moved down to 43.5 points.
The Chiefs Offense vs. Rams Defense
The Chiefs have a top-ten caliber offensive line, with one of the best interiors in the league. The Rams have an average to below-average front, carried by superstar Aaron Donald and to a lesser extent edge Leonard Floyd. The Chiefs have a moderate advantage in the trenches, though Donald is a major individual obstacle for any offensive line.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chiefs are 4-6 against the spread this season.
- The Chiefs are 5-5 on overs this season.
- Patrick Mahomes is 38-33-2 against the spread in his career.
- Patrick Mahomes is 39-33-1 on overs in his career.
- Andy Reid is 194-162-7 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Andy Reid is 178-174-11 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Chiefs are scoring 30 points per game, which is the best in the league.
- Kansas City is first in the league in yards passing per game and 17th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, since taking the lead in the Chiefs backfield two weeks ago Isiah Pacheco has 31 carries for 189 yards rushing and a touchdown over that span. Pacheco has three targets on the season.
- Jerick McKinnon has eight targets in two of his last three games. McKinnon has six or less targets in each of those contests.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has eight or more targets in six of his nine games this season.
- Marquez-Valdes Scantling has four or less targets in each of his last five games.
- Skyy Moore saw a six-target usage spike with five catches for 63 yards receiving last week.
- Travis Kelce is fifth in the league in receptions (69), seventh in yards receiving (855), and first in receiving touchdowns (11). Kelce’s 25% target share and 23.7% air yards share are both third among tight ends
- Per TruMedia, JuJu Smith-Schuster has played 246 snaps on the perimeter and 174 in the slot.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has played 311 snaps on the perimeter and 174 in the slot.
- The Rams have allowed 22.7 points per game, which is 17th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Rams have allowed the 25th-most yards rushing per game and the 12th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Los Angeles has given up the 11th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Los Angeles have given up the most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Rams have allowed the 26th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Rams Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
The Rams have the worst offensive line in the league and they are down center Brian Allen once again. The Chiefs have a fringe top-ten front. The Chiefs have a major trench advantage, while premium defensive tackle Chris Jones has a potentially game-derailing advantage in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Rams are 2-7-1 against the spread this season.
- The Rams are 4-6 on overs this season.
- Sean McVay is 45-43-3 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Sean McVay is 43-47-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Rams are scoring 16.8 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- Los Angeles is 19th in the league in yards passing per game and 31st in yards rushing.
- Bryce Perkins is getting the start at quarterback for the Rams. Perkins brings some rushing upside.
- Cam Akers and Kyren Williams will take on the bulk of the work in the Rams backfield. Expect Akers to lead the team in carries with Williams serving as the secondary runner while taking on the majority of the passing game work.
- Per the Edge, Allen Robinson has five or more targets in all but one of his games this season. Robinson has breached 50 yards receiving three times this year.
- Van Jefferson has 13 total targets over his three games this season.
- Tyler Higbee’s 21.1% target share is fourth among tight ends. Higbee has a 3.5 ADOT, which is 91st among tight ends.
- The Chiefs have allowed 23.3 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chiefs have allowed the 24th-most yards rushing per game and the third-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Kansas City has given up the 7th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Kansas City has given up the second-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Chiefs have allowed the 18th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Chiefs vs. Rams
A bet on the Chiefs is always a bet on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s offense. In this contest, the Chiefs opened as full two-touchdown favorites. That line is increasing because Kansas City could realistically blow the doors off the Rams in every phase. The Chiefs have the best offense in the league, and they are facing a Rams defense that has surrendered 27 or more points in three of their last four games. Oddly, the Chiefs have had four of their five best offensive outputs on the road this season. I don’t put a ton of stock in that but it’s worth mentioning since Kansas City needs to win by three scores. The Chiefs’ offense can smash anyone, but their defense is in a plus matchup against one of the league’s worst offenses. Not only does Kansas City draw backup quarterback Bryce Perkins, but they have a significant advantage in the trenches. Your biggest concern as a Chiefs bettor is that the Rams’ defense plays one of their best games of the season while Bryce Perkins pieces together enough offense to keep this game within two scores.
A bet on the Rams is a bet on a spiraling Rams team that will be starting Bryce Perkins at quarterback this week. If you’ve been betting on the NFL for a long time, you’ve probably grown accustomed to the idea that we should expect the unexpected. If you are betting on the Rams, you are betting on a narrow, unexpected outcome. First is that Bryce Perkins’ mobility ends up being an asset for a broken Rams offense. Los Angeles is without Cooper Kupp and their injury-ravaged offensive line is the worst in the league. Asking for more than 17 points out of Perkins’ offense is a lot. The other part of that narrow path is that the Rams’ defense treats this game like their Super Bowl, where Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey make a few plays to end multiple Chiefs drives. A 27-13 or 31-17 type of final covers for Rams bettors. Your concern as a Rams bettor is that their offense is non-functional while the Chiefs blow past 30 points on offense, which is their current average per game.
Awards Market Ramifications: Patrick Mahomes is the MVP favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m taking the Chiefs in all my winner pools, and they’ll be among my top two in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m going to take the Chiefs or pass. I try to avoid betting on massive favorites but we’re getting Patrick Mahomes against a freefalling team that’s starting their backup quarterback. There are more paths to the Chiefs winning this game decisively than not.
Survivor Pool: The Chiefs are a strong choice in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 35-20
Props 2022: 36-21
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