Analysis
11/26/22
7 min read
NFL Week 12 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions for Chargers at Cardinals
Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7)
Opening Spread: Cardinals +3.5.
Opening Game Total: 47.5.
Opening Team Totals: Cardinals (22), Chargers (25.5).
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cardinals +3.5.
- This line has moved down to Cardinals +2.5.
- DraftKings Pick'Em has the Cardinals +2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Cardinals +4.5.
- This total opened at 47.5 points.
- This total remains at 47.5 points.
The Cardinals Offense vs. the Chargers Defense
Arizona is marching out an offensive line filled with reserves, making them a bottom-tier unit. Fortunately for the Cardinals, the Chargers' front has also been greatly reduced by injuries, making them a below-average defensive front. Neither side has an advantage from a macro sense, but Chargers Edge Khalil Mack has an individual advantage on the outside.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cardinals are 5-6 against the spread this season.
- The Cardinals are 6-4-1 on overs this season.
- Kyler Murray is 28-25-2 against the spread in his career.
- Kyler Murray is 24-29-2 on overs in his career.
- Kliff Kingsbury is 31-27-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kliff Kingsbury is 28-30-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Cardinals Offense
- The Cardinals are scoring 21.8 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- Arizona is 14th in the league in yards passing per game and 21st in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Kyler Murray is seventh among quarterbacks in yards rushing.
- James Conner missed most of October due to injury. Over his last two games, he has 35 total carries and eight targets.
- DeAndre Hopkins' 31.7% is second in the league, and his 47.5% air yards share is the most. Hopkins has double-digit targets in four of his five games this season.
- Marquise Brown is slated to return from injury this week. Brown's 26.4% target share is 17th in the league, and his 44% air yards share is third. Expect Brown to be on a pitch count this week.
- This is the first time Hopkins and Hollywood will play together.
- Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz are both out, so Arizona still won't have their full-skill group available for a game this season.
- Greg Dortch is questionable, but he has stepped into Moore's role when Rondale misses time.
- In Trey McBride's first start last week, he caught all four of his targets for 14 yards receiving.
Chargers Defense
- The Chargers have allowed 25.8 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chargers have allowed the second-most yards rushing per game and the 25th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Los Angeles has given up the 20th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Chargers have allowed the third-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Chargers have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the eighth-most to those in the slot.
The Chargers Offense vs. the Cardinals Defense
The Chargers offensive line is a middle-of-the-pack group without stud left tackle Rashawn Slater. The Cardinals' defensive front has been steadily improving over the last month, to the point that I now have them on the average to the below-average fringe. I'm treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chargers are 7-3 against the spread this season.
- The Chargers are 5-5 on overs this season.
- Justin Herbert is 23-19 against the spread in his career.
- Justin Herbert is 24-18 on overs in his career.
- Brandon Staley is 15-12 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Brandon Staley is 15-12 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Chargers Offense
- The Chargers are scoring 22.7 points per game, good for 14th in the league.
- Los Angeles is sixth in the league in yards passing per game and 30th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Austin Ekeler is 23rd among running backs in yards rushing, and he's second in yards receiving.
- Keenan Allen returned to action last week against the Chiefs, where he caught five of eight targets for 94 yards receiving.
- With Mike Williams once again sidelined, Josh Palmer remains in a headlining role for the Chargers. Palmer has eight or more targets in each of his last four games, with double-digit targets in three of those contests.
- Gerald Everett has seven or more targets in three of his last four games. In the contest that he fell below that total, he didn't finish due to injury, and he missed last week's game against the Chiefs.
Cardinals Defense
- The Cardinals have allowed 26.9 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Cardinals have allowed the 17th-most yards rushing per game and the tenth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Arizona has given up the 25th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Cardinals have allowed the most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Cardinals have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends and the most to those lined up in the slot.
This Is What You're Betting On in Chargers vs. Cardinals
This is an interesting matchup between two uncommon opponents that are largely carried by their ultra-talented quarterbacks. Further, both of these teams have endured terrible injury situations this season. Neither team has been eliminated from the playoffs, but they both have uphill battles now. You could argue that both teams' coaches are on the hot seat.
What to Expect if You're Betting on Cardinals
A bet on the Cardinals is a bet on Kyler Murray's ability to play effective offense behind an injury-ravaged offensive line. Hollywood Brown is back, which makes this the first contest where Hollywood and DeAndre Hopkins are both active. Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz are both out, so this offense still isn't at full strength, but Hopkins and Hollywood are one of the league's best wide receiver duos. The Chargers defense is a run sieve, which is a positive for James Conner. The downside there is that injuries have decimated Arizona's offensive line. That brings us to your biggest concern as a Cardinals bettor: Arizona's injury-ravaged offensive line ends up being a liability in both phases. Your second biggest concern is that you're betting against Justin Herbert.
What to Expect if You're Betting on Chargers
A bet on the Chargers is a bet on Justin Herbert elevating the Chargers offense, as he often does. Herbert has a solid supporting cast with difference makers in Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen. Still, Herbert is one of those rare quarterbacks who makes a handful of difference-making plays weekly. Your second path to a Chargers cover is that the Cardinals offensive line is in such bad shape injury wise they might actually have trouble effectively running the ball against the Chargers. Your biggest concern with a Chargers bet is that Arizona has some serious firepower on offense. If the Cardinals can still effectively run the ball behind their injury-ravaged line with the upside of Murray with Hopkins and Hollywood in the passing game, there's a very good chance that Arizona at least meets expectations on offense.
Chargers vs. Cardinals Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I'm going to be Chargers-heavy in winner pools, but I want some exposure to Arizona as they are an interesting differentiator option. I'm going to be below consensus on this game in my confidence rankings.
Spread Pool: I'm debating a Cardinals bet with the hook.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan's recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 35-20
Props 2022: 36-21
WATCH MORE: Chris Farley and Tank Williams break down Chargers vs. Cardinals.
