Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-3)
Opening Spread: Titans +1.5.
Opening Game Total: 42.5.
Opening Team Totals: Titans (20.5), Bengals (22).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Titans +1.5.
- This line has moved up to Titans +2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Titans +1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Titans +1.5.
- This total opened at 42.5 points.
- This total remains at 42.5 points.
Titans: Out: LT Taylor Lewan, LG Jamarco Jones, Edge Harold Landry, LB Zach Cunningham, CB Caleb Farley. Questionable: C Ben Jones, DL Jefferey Simmons, DL Denico Autry, Edge Bud Dupree, CB Kristian Fulton, S Amani Hooker.
Bengals: Out: CB Chidobe Awuzie. Questionable: RB Joe Mixon, WR Ja’Marr Chase.
The Titans Offense vs. Bengals Defense
The Titans have a below-average offensive line that has been missing LT Taylor Lewan for weeks. The Bengals have a below-average pass rush. However, Bengals defensive tackle DJ Reader returns, which is a significant boon to the Bengals run defense. Edge rusher Trey Hendrickson is a high-end pass rusher and the best player on the Bengals front. The Bengals have a slight advantage in the run game, while Hendrickson has a unique advantage on the outside against the Titans’ offensive tackles.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Titans are 8-2 against the spread this season.
- The Titans are 3-7 on overs this season.
- Ryan Tannehill is 71-67-3 against the spread in his career.
- Ryan Tannehill is 75-64-2 on overs in his career.
- Mike Vrabel is 41-33-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Vrabel is 41-33-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Titans are scoring 19.3 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- Tennessee is 30th in the league in yards passing per game and 11th in yards rushing.
- Last week against the Packers, Ryan Tannehill showed some ceiling throwing for 333 yards passing with two touchdowns on an 81.5% completion percentage.
- Per the Edge, Derrick Henry leads the league with 1010 yards rushing. Henry is third in rushing touchdowns with ten.
- Henry has five or more targets in two of his ten games this season.
- Robert Woods leads the Titans in receptions (30), yards receiving (335), target share (22.1%), and air yards share (25.2%).
- In his second game back from injury No. 18 overall pick Treylon Burks caught seven-of-eight targets for 111 yards receiving against the Packers.
- Burks is the most dynamic athlete among Titans pass catchers.
- Apart from a 119-yard, two-touchdown spike game against the Broncos two weeks ago, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has breached 50 yards receiving in only one other game this season.
- Since Tannehill returned to action two weeks ago, Austin Hooper has 11 total targets over that span. Hooper has only exceeded three targets in a game one other time this season.
- The Bengals have allowed 21.5 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bengals have allowed the 20th-most yards rushing per game and the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Cincinnati has given up the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bengals have allowed the 14th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Bengals Offense vs. Titans Defense
The Bengals offensive line is better today than in September, but this is still a below-average group. On the other hand, the Titans have a top-10-level defensive front at full strength with one of the best interior duos in the league. The Titans have an advantage in the trenches here, especially in the interior.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bengals are 7-3 against the spread this season.
- The Bengals are 4-5-1 on overs this season.
- Joe Burrow is 22-14 against the spread in his career.
- Joe Burrow is 18-16-2 on overs in his career.
- Zac Taylor is 32-27 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Zac Taylor is 27-30-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Bengals are scoring 26.5 points per game, good for third in the league.
- Cincinnati is fourth in the league in yards passing per game and 28th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Joe Burrow has breached 300 yards passing four times this season.
- Joe Mixon is 18th in the league in yards rushing and fifth among running backs in yards receiving.
- Ja’Marr Chase has a 27.7% target share and a 36.8% air yards share.
- Chase has a chance of returning to action in this contest.
- Tee Higgins has a 19.5% target share and a 28.7% air yards share.
- Tyler Boyd has a 15.1% target share and a 21.3% air yards share.
- Hayden Hurst has a 13.7% target share and a 9.5% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Ja’Marr Chase played 341 snaps on the perimeter and 99 in the slot.
- Tee Higgins has played 337 snaps on the perimeter and 92 in the slot.
- Tyler Boyd has played 98 snaps on the perimeter and 426 in the slot.
- Hayden Hurst has played 251 snaps as an inline tight end, 65 on the perimeter and 96 in the slot.
- The Titans have allowed 18.5 points per game, which is eighth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Titans have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing per game and the ninth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tennessee has given up the fifth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Tennessee has given up the second most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Titans have allowed the sixth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Titans have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Titans vs. Bengals
The Bengals beat the Titans 19-16 in Tennessee during the divisional round of last year’s playoffs. Tennessee has won seven of its previous eight games. That one loss came against the Chiefs, in Kansas City, by three points with Malik Willis as the Titans quarterback. The Titans haven’t given up 20 or more points since Week 3 against the Raiders. It’s important to mention that the Commanders are the only team Tennessee has beaten with a winning record. You could argue that the Titans’ Thursday night win in Green Bay is their best win of the season. The Bengals have won four of their last five, scoring 30 or more points in each of those victories. The Jets and the Dolphins are the only teams the Bengals have beaten with winning records.
Mike Vrabel’s Titans consistently exceed expectations. Over the past two years, this team has played winning football despite being down multiple starters virtually every week. If you’re betting on the Titans, that’s the foundation of your bet. If you’re betting on Tennessee this week, their potential trench advantage on defense is their most significant matchup edge in this contest. I use the word potential as Tennessee has several key players still on the injury report, specifically both members of their elite interior duo, Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry. If Autry and especially Simmons are a go, high-end pass rushes have given the Bengals problems all season. Your biggest concern as a Titans bettor is that Joe Burrow shreds Tennessee’s beatable secondary. Your second biggest concern is the Titans still have several significant players on the injury report, and they are playing a dangerous Bengals team this week.
A bet on the Bengals is a bet on Burrow’s high-powered offense. Chase may return to action this week, bolstering the Bengals’ already dangerous passing attack. Bengals defensive tackle D.J. Reader is back, which is significant as Cincinnati is a much better run defense with Reader in the lineup. You want all hands on deck in your run defense when you’re squaring off against the Big Dog Derrick Henry. Cincinnati has been a good team defense over the last two seasons, so they are well-positioned to keep the Titans offense right around expectations. Your biggest concern with a Bengals bet is Cincinnati’s still below-average offensive line draws the Titans difference-making front.
In general, each of these teams has one significant advantage. The Bengals have their pass catchers against the Titans’ pass defense. The Titans have their defensive front against a Bengals offensive line that has struggled against premium pass rushes.
Awards Market Ramifications: Mike Vrabel is the reigning Coach of the Year, and he’s once again a contender for that award. Derrick Henry is an Offensive Player of the Year contender and Comeback Player of the Year.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I play in several winner pools, so I’ll get some exposure to the Titans here, but I’ll play the Bengals more often in that format. I will treat this game like a true coin flip in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I have a slight lean towards the Bengals side ATS, but I don’t expect to play this game directly.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 35-20
Props 2022: 36-21
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