Week 10 was not a great one for my picks. We went 3-4 on Sunday and missed all three of the most confident plays. That brings our season total to 59-53-2, but we have a great Thursday night game between the Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans to help us turn it around.
Treylon Burks MORE than 34.5 Receiving Yards
Burks had been out since Week 4 due to injury, but he returned last week against the Broncos and fit right into the offense. He ran the second-most routes, only behind Robert Woods, and tied Nick Westbrook-Ikhine with 29. Before he got injured in Week 4, Burks was seeing similar usage to what we saw last week. In the first three weeks of the season, Burks averaged 38 receiving yards per game and had two games with more than 40 receiving yards. He also was seeing plenty of opportunities. He ranked second on the team in target share.
Last week, his usage was encouraging for a player coming off injured reserve. If he sees six targets again, I am confident he can hit this pick. I give this entry a confidence rating of 4/5. The only negative is the low pass volume of the Titans’ offense, but I would play this up to 39.5 receiving yards.
Aaron Rodgers MORE than 0.5 Passing TDs vs. Ryan Tannehill
Packer’s entries were hard to find for this Thursday night matchup, but I found this really nice “Rivals” entry. The Titans are the worst in the league in pass yards allowed, and they give up the fifth most passing touchdowns per game at 1.80. The Packers are having a down year, but Rodger’s is still seeing some success through the air. He averages the sixth most passing touchdowns per game. He is averaging more touchdowns per game than Tom Brady, Justin Herbert and even MVP candidate Jalen Hurts.
My biggest concern with this bet is considering how the Packers’ defense will stop Tannehill. They’ve given up nine touchdowns during the last four weeks. Two of those games were against great quarterbacks, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen, but the Packers also gave up two passing touchdowns to Taylor Heinicke and Jared Goff. This pick might be close, but with the Packers being at home and with Tennessee likely to lean on the run game, I give the edge to Rodgers. I give this pick a confidence rating of 4/5.
Derrick Henry MORE than 99.5 Rush Yards
This will probably be one of the chalk plays of the week, but I can’t help but mention it. The Packers have given up more than 100 rushing yards in every game except Week 3 against the Buccaneers. Henry was held back by a good Broncos defense last week, but there is no reason he can’t get back into form.
Before last week, Henry had more than 100 rush yards in five straight games. I fully expect him to make it six out of his last seven, so I am confident he will go over 99.5 rush yards. I give this pick a 5/5 for confidence and would play it to 109.5 rush yards.
Allen Lazard MORE than 48.5 Receiving Yards
As of writing this article, this line is yet to be posted on Underdog fantasy, but I imagine it will be posted soon since it’s on several other sites and sportsbooks. Lazard has been limited in practice due to a shoulder injury, but is expected to play Thursday night. I am writing this without the official line posted because I believe it is an absolute smash of a play, assuming he plays and the line gets posted.
As mentioned before, the Titans’ pass defense is horrific and Rodgers should have a field day when he drops back. I do not like the passing yards line for Rodgers, I think it is already too high to play, so I moved to the next best thing, picking Rodgers’ favorite target this season.
I think this line is so low because of the recent breakout of Christian Watson and because Lazard was held in check by an elite Dallas pass defense last week. Plus, Lazard is still carrying an injury designation. This pick is my most confident pick of the week, and I would play it up to 55.5 receiving yards.