Analysis
11/16/22
9 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting: Titans vs. Packers Odds, Spreads, Picks and Predictions
Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Green Bay Packers (4-6)
Opening Spread: Packers -2.5.
Opening Game Total: 41.5.
Opening Team Totals: Packers (22), Titans (19.5).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
This line opened as Packers -2.5.
This line has moved to Packers -3.5.
DraftKings Pick'Em has the Packers -3.5.
Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest releases their lines Thursday afternoon.
This total opened at 41.5 points.
This total remains at 41.5.
Notable Injuries
Packers: Out: WR Romeo Doubs, edge Rashan Gary, LB De'Vondre Campbell, CB Eric Stokes.
Questionable: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Aaron Jones, WR Allen Lazard, LT David Bakhtiari, LG Elgton Jenkins, RG Jon Runyan, edge Preston Smith, edge Kingsley Enagbare, CB Rasul Douglas.
Titans: Out: LT Taylor Lewan, LG Jamarco Jones, C Ben Jones, edge Harold Landry, edge Bud Dupree, CB Caleb Farley, S Amani Hooker, K Randy Bullock.
Questionable: DL Jeffery Simmons, CB Roger McCreary.
The Packer Offense vs. Titans Defense
The Packers have a middle-of-the-pack offensive line that has a clear path to improvement down the stretch. Green Bay also has the benefit of Aaron Rodgers' quick release and his ability to extend plays, which are both assets in pressure management. Tennessee will be down both of its starting edge rushers, while Jeffrey Simmons remains on the injury report after missing last week's contest with Denver. With Simmons, the Titans still have a fringe top-ten front despite being down both of their primary edge rushers (who have both missed considerable time this year). If Simmons misses this contest, this group falls closer to the 20s. That said, as we saw last week, Tennessee is still capable of generating pressure, despite being down multiple key players. All things considered, I'm treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
The Packers are 4-6 against the spread this season.
The Packers are 4-6 on overs this season.
Aaron Rodgers is 126-93-4 against the spread in his career.
Aaron Rodgers is 114-107-2 on overs in his career.
Matt LaFleur is 36-23 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
Matt LaFleur is 27-32 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Packers Offense
The Packers are scoring 18.5 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
Green Bay is 17th in the league in yards passing per game and 12th in yards rushing.
Per the Edge, Aaron Jones is seventh in the league in yards rushing (738), and he's seventh among running backs in yards receiving (228).
A.J. Dillon has double-digit carries in eight of his ten games this year. Dillon has breached 50 yards rushing four times this season. Dillon has four or more targets in three games this year, and he has no targets in three contests.
Allen Lazard leads the Packers in target share (20.8%) and air yards share (31.2%).
Christian Watson has had an injury-plagued rookie campaign, but he exploded last week for 107 yards receiving and three touchdowns on four receptions off eight targets.
Watson was the No. 34 overall pick in this year's draft, and he's the most dynamic athlete in Green Bay's wide receiver room by a considerable margin.
Sammy Watkins has an 11.1% target share, which is sixth on the Packers.
This season, Robert Tonyan has four or more targets in seven of his ten games. Tonyan's 14.3% target share is third on the Packers.
Per TruMedia, Allen Lazard has played 262 snaps on the perimeter, 34 as an inline tight end, and 152 in the slot.
Christian Watson has played 98 snaps on the perimeter and 69 in the slot.
Sammy Watkins has played 197 snaps on the perimeter and 35 in the slot.
Titans Defense
The Titans have allowed 18.7 points per game, which is eighth in the league.
Per The Edge, the Titans have allowed the second-fewest yards rushing per game and the seventh-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
Tennessee has given up the fifth most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
Tennessee has given up the second most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
The Titans have allowed the fifth most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Titans have allowed the fourth most PPR points to inline tight ends.
The Titans Offense vs. Packers Defense
The Titans are now down three starters on their offensive line, which further entrenches them as a bottom-tier unit. The loss of edge rusher Rashan Gary pushes the Packers' top-ten front towards average to below-average territory. As a result, I'm giving the Packers' front a mild edge in the passing game.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
The Titans are 7-2 against the spread this season.
The Titans are 2-7 on overs this season.
Ryan Tannehill is 70-67-3 against the spread in his career.
Ryan Tannehill is 74-64-2 on overs in his career.
Mike Vrabel is 40-33-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
Mike Vrabel is 40-33-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Titans Offense
The Titans are scoring 18.4 points per game, which is 26th in the league.
Tennessee is 31st in the league in yards passing per game and ninth in yards rushing.
Ryan Tannehill returned to action last week against the Broncos, finishing with an 83.3 QBR and 94.1 rating in that contest.
Per the Edge, the Big Dog Derrick Henry's 923 yards rushing is second in the league.
Henry has breached 100 yards rushing in five of his last six games. During that span, Henry has three or more targets in three of those games.
No. 18 overall pick Treylon Burks returned to action last week after missing over a month. Burks saw six targets against the Broncos.
Robert Woods leads the Titans in target share (21.6%) and air yards share (25.6%).
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is coming off a 5-119-2 spike game on eight targets that included a 63-yard touchdown reception off a flea flicker.
Austin Hooper had seven targets last week, which is only the second time he's had more than three in a game this season.
Packers Defense
The Packers have allowed 21.6 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
Per The Edge, the Packers have allowed the third most yards rushing per game and the 20th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
Green Bay has given up the fifth fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
The Packers have allowed the fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
Last week's win against the Cowboys was a big one for Green Bay. Especially since its passing game showed life in that come-from-behind victory.
What to Expect if You're a Packers Bettor
If you're betting on the Packers, you are betting on Aaron Rodgers continuing that success against a beatable Titans pass defense. You're also getting Green Bay's top-tier running back duo, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillion, against a reduced Titans front. You have three core concerns as a Packers bettor. The first is that Green Bay is coming off an emotional overtime win and now they are faced with a short week. The second is that the Packers have been shredded on the ground this season, and now they get the big dog. While Green Bay will most likely stack the box against Derrick Henry, so does just about everyone else. The third is that the Titans are simply a tough, well-coached football team that makes a habit of exceeding expectations.
If You're Betting on the Titans
A bet on the Titans is a bet on The Big Dog running wild, while Ryan Tannehill has another efficient game against a strong pass defense like he did against Denver last week. Packers linebacker De'Vondre Campbell being sidelined is a positive for the Titans' run game. Injuries are still a big story for the Titans this week, as they are down three starters on their offensive line, at least two on their defensive line, and at least two in their secondary. Tennessee being down their kicker creates a few additional paths to them leaving points on the field. Tennessee's injury-depleted roster is your biggest concern with a Titans bet, but Mike Vrabel continues to get the most out of this team regardless of who's missing, as we saw last week. Your second biggest concern as a Titans bettor is that the Packers need to nearly win out, and Aaron Rodgers' passing attack looked better last week than it has at any other point this season.
Thursday Night Football and Home Field Advantage?
Per TruMedia, over the last 156 games played on Thursday Night Football, home teams are 83-69-4 ATS over that span. On average, home teams have covered just shy of one point while outright winning by a margin just shy of six points, during this sample. Give the home team a slight baseline edge in your decision-making process on the short week.
Awards Market Ramifications: Derrick Henry is a Comeback Player of the Year contender and an Offensive Player of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I'm going to take Green Bay in winner pools this week, but Tennessee is an interesting differentiator option with a realistic path to victory. I expect to be right in line with the consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will either take Green Bay or pass ATS. Since this line has gotten to the -3.5-points hook, I'm leaning toward passing. The Packers coming off an overtime game on a short week is also concerning. When picking every game, I’m still leaning toward Green Bay.
Survivor Pool: This game should, ideally, be avoided for survivor purposes.
Ryan's recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 32-18
Props 2022: 34-18
Watch More: Josh Larky's Week 11 RB Advice
